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📰 Port-au-Prince under siege

📰 Port-au-Prince under siege

and Iran faces new sanctions

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
November 20, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

East Asia dominates today’s headlines: Manila and Washington have signed a landmark pact on military intelligence and weapons technology sharing, China has sentenced pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, and our main feature delineates the bilateral ties between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing.

Elsewhere, Somaliland, a breakaway republic in the Horn of Africa, has successfully conducted elections resulting in an opposition victory, while Yemen’s Ansarullah movement continues to reshape power dynamics in the Red Sea and the broader Middle East.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 Somaliland’s opposition leader wins presidential election, democratic process strengthens bid for recognition: Abdirahman Cirro, leader of Somaliland’s opposition Waddani party, secured a decisive victory in the recent election, claiming 64% of the vote against incumbent Bihi’s 35%, according to Electoral Commission chairman Musa Hassan. In a televised address, Cirro described the election as a triumph of unity and progress for Somaliland. The self-declared republic, strategically located between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, continues to seek international recognition. A preliminary deal with Ethiopia in January, offering Addis Ababa coastal access in exchange for recognition, has intensified regional tensions. Analysts speculate Cirro may revisit the pact, potentially fostering dialogue with Somalia, which opposes the agreement. His win also raises questions about Somaliland's ties with Taiwan, as Cirro has previously expressed scepticism, suggesting his administration may pivot towards closer relations with China.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹 Armed groups clash in Port-au-Prince: Gangs have launched a violent assault on Pétionville—an upscale area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti—clashing with residents and police. The attack, led by the Viv Ansanm gang and its leader, ex-police officer Jimmy Chérizier—known as Barbecue—was announced in advance via social media. At least 28 suspected gang members were killed, and hundreds of munitions seized, according to police. Witnesses described gruesome scenes, with 20'000 people having already fled the capital in recent days. The attack is part of escalating gang violence in the capital, where gangs now control 85% of the city and have targeted previously peaceful areas. Recent months have seen coordinated attacks on police stations, infrastructure, and prisons, with over 4,000 inmates freed. The violence continues despite the arrival of Kenyan-led UN-backed forces, as calls grow for a more robust international peacekeeping mission.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 EU, UK expand sanction regimes on Iran: On 18 November, the European Union and the United Kingdom imposed additional sanctions on Iranian entities, citing Tehran’s transfer of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine and to proxies across the Middle East. The European Council stated the decision broadens the EU's framework for restrictive measures, targeting Iran’s military support for Russia and armed groups in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Among the newly sanctioned entities are Iran Air and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), reflecting growing international condemnation of Iran's military exports and regional activities. These measures highlight escalating tensions and coordinated Western efforts to curtail Iran’s influence amid its deepening involvement in multiple conflict zones.

4️⃣ 🇾🇪 Ansarullah’s role in redefining regional power dynamics: The Ansarallah—or Houthi—armed wing has emerged as a central force in the Iran–led Axis of Resistance, redefining its role in West Asia’s shifting dynamics. Once seen as a vulnerable target for Saudi aggression, Sanaa has transformed into a strategic powerhouse, challenging regional and global powers. Ansarallah's forces have demonstrated advanced capabilities through sustained operations, including missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. and Israeli naval assets in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and beyond. Notably, a preemptive strike on 11 November thwarted a U.S. plan for large-scale airstrikes, showcasing the group's intelligence and operational sophistication. Sanaa’s calculated escalation and precision messaging highlight its growing leverage over regional waterways and its commitment to supporting Palestine and Lebanon. Ansarallau's ascent signals a new chapter in the resistance movement, directly challenging the dominance of external powers in the region.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 ATACMS restrictions lifted for Ukraine: What happens next? The United States has lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to target Russian territory, a decision influenced by the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had long pressed Western allies for access to such weapons, arguing they are vital for disrupting Russian supply chains and countering advancing forces in eastern Ukraine. The ATACMS, with a range of 300 km, were previously sent to Ukraine but restricted to use within its borders. The change comes as Ukrainian forces reportedly control parts of Kursk, where thousands of North Korean soldiers are stationed. Russian officials warn the decision could escalate the war, with concerns voiced about global conflict. Meanwhile, Kyiv has signalled its readiness, stating, “Missiles will speak for themselves.”

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇲🇾 DELINEATING THE MALAYSIA–CHINA RELATIONSHIP

Background

Malaysia’s trade relationship with China is a significant facet of its economy, with bilateral trade reaching $99 billion in 2023 and Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) totaling nearly $8 billion. Both nations are keen to deepen this relationship, especially in areas like digital and green development. However, critiques of Malaysia’s economic engagement with China often focus on perceived “overdependence” or a strategic tilt toward Beijing.

This characterization oversimplifies a complex economic reality, writes The Diplomat. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim—during a 2023 visit to Beijing—underscored Malaysia’s commitment to maintaining balanced relationships globally, a sentiment reflecting the gravity model of trade. This model explains that Malaysia’s proximity to China naturally fosters trade ties, without implying undue reliance.

Trade Diversification and Resilience

Contrary to fears of overdependence, Malaysia’s trade with China has diversified and its relative importance has declined. China’s share of Malaysia’s total trade dropped from 19% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. Simultaneously, ASEAN's share of Malaysia’s trade increased, highlighting economic resilience amidst a Chinese slowdown. Moreover, Malaysia’s trade intensity with China aligns with ASEAN averages and falls below that of countries like Australia, Japan, and South Korea. At a sectoral level, China’s influence varies, dominating plastics and machinery but playing a smaller role in fuels and palm oil. These dynamics underscore Malaysia’s success in maintaining a balanced trade portfolio across industries and partners.

Beyond Trade: Pragmatism and Agency

Claims of overdependence extend to FDI and Chinese-financed infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yet, China’s share of Malaysia’s FDI portfolio remains modest, and external debt linked to China is negligible. Malaysia’s proactive renegotiation of BRI projects demonstrates its agency in aligning these investments with national priorities.

Malaysia’s economic strategy reflects pragmatism and diversification, enabling engagement with China while strengthening ties with ASEAN, the West, and beyond. Far from signalling a pivot to Beijing, Malaysia’s approach highlights its ability to navigate a multipolar economic landscape.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇻🇪 Venezuela releases several election day protestors: Venezuela’s government released several individuals detained during and after the deadly protests that followed the contested July presidential election. The election results, which both President Nicolás Maduro and opposition candidate Edmundo González claim to have won, have sparked international criticism. The releases came a day after the attorney general, a Maduro loyalist, announced a review of 225 cases related to the election unrest. Tearful reunions were seen outside prisons in various cities. Venezuelan NGOs, including Penal Forum and the Venezuelan Prison Observatory, confirmed the release of at least 70 people, though the conditions for their release remain unclear.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 China sentences democracy activists in Hong Kong: Governments and human rights organisations have condemned the sentencing of 45 pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong following the city’s largest national security trial to date. Sentences ranged from four years and two months to 10 years, targeting former legislators, councillors, academics, and activists collectively known as the Hong Kong 47. Two other defendants were acquitted earlier this year. The group was arrested in 2021 under the National Security Law (NSL) for organising an unofficial primary election in July 2020, which drew over 600,000 participants. The NSL, imposed by Beijing after pro-democracy protests, has been widely criticised for stifling dissent. The US consulate in Hong Kong condemned the sentences, describing the prosecutions as aggressive and targeting individuals for engaging in peaceful political activities. The verdict has intensified global criticism of Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s political freedoms.

3️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇺🇸 Manila, Washington pen military intelligence and weapons technology sharing pact: The United States and the Philippines signed an agreement to facilitate the secure exchange of classified military intelligence and technology tied to U.S.-provided weapons. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro formalised the General Security of Military Information Agreement during a ceremony in Manila. This legally binding accord underscores growing military collaboration between the allies, spurred by shared concerns over China's assertive actions in the region. The deal aligns with the Biden administration's broader strategy to fortify military alliances across the Indo-Pacific, particularly in preparation for potential conflicts involving Taiwan or the contested South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also prioritised enhancing national defence amid intensifying maritime confrontations with Chinese forces in the South China Sea.