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📰 Putin defies ICC warrant

📰 Putin defies ICC warrant

and Australia preps massive military exercise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
August 30, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

In the past 24 hours, Jakarta and Canberra have signed a landmark defence agreement, while an upcoming visit by Putin to Ulaanbaatar has raised concerns due to Mongolia's status as an ICC member.

In the Middle East, tensions escalated as a Turkish drone was shot down over Kirkuk, Iraq, and Israeli Defense Forces killed five people in a mosque in Tulkarem.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇲🇳 Putin to travel to Mongolia, despite ICC arrest warrant: Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit Mongolia next week, according to a Kremlin announcement on Thursday. This marks his first trip to a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the court issued an arrest warrant against him in March 2023 for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Despite Mongolia's status as a signatory to the Rome Statute, the ICC’s founding treaty, which obligates member states to arrest individuals wanted by the court, Putin's visit is scheduled for Tuesday.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇦🇺 Indonesia and Australia sign defence pact: Indonesia and Australia have strengthened their military relationship with the signing of a defence cooperation agreement on Thursday. The deal, signed by Indonesia's president-elect and current defence minister Prabowo Subianto and Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, marks a significant upgrade in their ties. Marles emphasised the treaty-level nature of the agreement, though it is not a formal military alliance. He also announced that the two countries will hold their largest-ever joint military exercise in November, which will be Australia's most extensive overseas exercise this year. Amid growing tensions with China, Australia's relationship with Indonesia is becoming increasingly important. Subianto has pledged to maintain Indonesia's non-aligned foreign policy as president.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇹🇷 Turkish drone shot down over Kirkuk: Iraq's air defences have downed a Turkish drone over Kirkuk, heightening tensions as the two nations work to strengthen economic and security ties. The Iraqi air force reported that the drone, after being warned "according to protocol," was shot down when it entered Kirkuk airspace. The drone crashed onto a civilian house, causing "only material losses." Turkish officials have yet to comment on the incident, which adds to the already volatile security situation in the region.

4️⃣ 🇲🇽 Mexico’s ruling party edges close to a majority: Mexico’s ruling Morena party announced Wednesday that it is nearing a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress, following defections by two senators from the now-defunct Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). Morena already secured a two-thirds majority in the lower house and is just one vote away from achieving the same in the Senate. This would allow the party to advance constitutional changes, including a controversial proposal to elect judges, a move critics warn could undermine judicial independence and further concentrate power in the presidency. The U.S. ambassador to Mexico recently expressed similar concerns.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Five killed in Tulkarem mosque during West Bank raid: The death toll rose on Thursday as Israel continued its large-scale military operation in the occupied West Bank for a second consecutive day, despite UN warnings that the action is “fuelling an already explosive situation.” The operation began amidst ongoing violence in the Gaza Strip, which has been severely impacted by the conflict since Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attacks on Israel. Early Wednesday, Israeli forces initiated coordinated raids in the northern West Bank cities of Jenin, Tubas, and Tulkarem, describing the mission as a “counter-terrorism” operation. Israeli armoured vehicles, supported by troops and warplanes, moved into the area, encircling refugee camps in Tubas, Tulkarem, and Jenin, where they engaged in firefights with Palestinian armed groups.

Major Story

🇱🇾🇺🇳 UN CALLS FOR RESOLVE IN LIBYA

The U.S. embassy in Libya has called for a diplomatic resolution to the escalating crisis over control of the central bank, warning that the dispute threatens Libya’s economic stability and could lead to further conflict. Ambassador Richard Norland endorsed the UN's call for emergency talks, emphasising the need for dialogue as reports of arrests and intimidation of central bank staff raised concerns.

Despite these warnings, the Tripoli-based government, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, has refused to reverse its decision to dismiss long-time central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir, replacing him with new leadership. The central bank, which controls Libya's major commercial banks and holds $27 billion in oil revenue reserves, is at the centre of a power struggle. Kabir, who has led the bank since 2011, has criticised Dbeibah's spending, aligning himself with eastern forces opposed to the Tripoli government.

The newly appointed interim deputy governor, Abdel Fattah Ghaffar, has promised to address the liquidity crisis and resume salary payments, but the conflict remains unresolved as Kabir refuses to hand over crucial payment codes. The rival eastern administration has rejected Kabir's dismissal, threatening to halt all oil production until he is reinstated.

Libya's ongoing turmoil stems from a decade-long struggle over state resources, with elections repeatedly delayed since 2014. International actors, including the IMF and the UK, have expressed concerns over the lack of accountability and the risks posed by unilateral decisions that could further destabilise the country. Despite the controversy surrounding Kabir's removal, Libya's Presidential Council argues that the decision was necessary to restore the rule of law and appoint more competent leadership. However, Mohamed al-Shukri, initially chosen to replace Kabir, has refused to take the position without backing from the eastern-based parliament, highlighting the deep divisions within Libya’s political landscape.

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Other News

1️⃣🇳🇿 New Zealand: Kiingi Tuheitia, the Māori King, has passed away, leaving behind a “fantastic legacy” according to New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Described as unpretentious and deeply committed to Māori rights, Tuheitia's 18-year reign was marked by efforts to unite Māori and non-Māori, reduce Māori incarceration rates, and advocate for cultural preservation. Leaders across the Pacific, including Tongan Prime Minister Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi Sovaleni and King Charles, expressed profound sadness over his passing.

2️⃣🇺🇦 Ukraine: A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet, recently delivered by Western allies, has crashed while repelling a significant Russian aerial attack, marking the first loss of an F-16 in the conflict. The pilot, Oleksiy Mes, who was instrumental in securing F-16s for Ukraine, was killed in the crash. An investigation is underway to determine the cause, with initial reports suggesting it was not due to Russian fire.