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📰 Putin issues nuclear warning

📰 Putin issues nuclear warning

and US pressures Sudan factions

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 26, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

In the last 24 hours, diplomats have issued ceasefire statements for the escalating violence and deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has intensified his nuclear rhetoric, warning that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons if attacked by any state using conventional forces. Additionally, elections have entered their second phase in Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 Taliban referred to The Hague over violations of women’s rights: Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, and Canada have warned they may refer the Taliban to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over serious violations of women’s rights in Afghanistan, according to German media reports on Wednesday. Citing a draft statement from New York, these countries urged the Taliban to comply with their international obligations under the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW). They warned that if the violations are not addressed promptly, they may initiate arbitration and ultimately bring the case to the ICJ. This warning follows the Taliban's recent laws that significantly curtail women's and girls' rights in Afghanistan, drawing widespread condemnation. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres criticised these actions, stating they formalise the systematic violation of Afghan women’s human rights.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 Washington earmarks $450 million in aid for Sudan, urges humanitarian ceasefire: The United States has announced a $424 million aid package for displaced and starving Sudanese. US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, called on the international community to explore all options for civilian protection. Describing the situation in Sudan as horrific and shameful, she stressed the urgency of compelling the warring factions to agree to a humanitarian pause, allowing aid to flow and enabling citizens to escape the violence. In the Zamzam refugee camp in North Darfur, children are dying at a shocking rate of more than one every two hours. "Every day, children are starving and suffering," Thomas-Greenfield stated. "We should all feel ashamed that this is happening under our watch. This humanitarian disaster is man-made, the result of a senseless war. We cannot turn a blind eye or succumb to compassion fatigue." Sudan has been engulfed in conflict for over a year between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Thomas-Greenfield emphasised that while all parties share responsibility, the RSF must immediately halt its violent actions in El Fasher, North Darfur.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 France, US issue joint statement for Israel-Lebanon ceasefire: Diplomatic efforts are intensifying as Israel broadens its air campaign against Hizbollah and considers a ground invasion, following nearly a year of conflict sparked by the ‘Axis of resistance’ actor’s support for Hamas in Gaza. In a joint statement, U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron underscored the importance of diplomacy, urging both Israel and Lebanon to cooperate. They emphasised the need to resolve the Israel-Lebanon border issue to ensure civilian safety and allow for their return home. During their discussions at the UN General Assembly, Biden and Macron proposed a potential ceasefire, garnering support from Australia, Canada, the EU, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. A senior U.S. official indicated that responses regarding the ceasefire were expected soon, highlighting the urgency for a diplomatic resolution despite ongoing escalations. Another official noted that a pause in fighting could facilitate a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, where Israeli actions have resulted in approximately 41,000 deaths. Since September 17, at least 700 people have died in Lebanon, with over 90,000 displaced. Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed at least 72, while Hizbollah launched a projectile at Tel Aviv the previous day, marking a notable escalation.

4️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 South Korea discusses development of nuclear weapons: During his recent confirmation hearing, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun indicated that acquiring nuclear weapons is “among all possible options” to counter North Korea's growing nuclear threat, signalling a shift toward normalising the idea of nuclear armament in Seoul. Political leaders in South Korea often discuss nuclear weapons to show strength, intimidate North Korea, or gain leverage in negotiations with Washington. Notably, some American scholars and national security figures have also endorsed this notion. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently asserted that there is “no reason we should object to” South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal. Public opinion polls consistently show majority support in South Korea for acquiring nuclear weapons, though few address the associated costs.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 Kashmir enters second phase of election: Amid heightened security, residents of Indian-controlled Kashmir participated in the second phase of a staggered local government election on Wednesday, breaking a trend of separatist boycotts seen in previous elections. This marks the first vote since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalist government revoked the semi-autonomy of the predominantly Muslim region in 2019. Following the revocation, the former state was reorganised into two centrally governed union territories, Ladakh and Jammu-Kashmir, which are administered directly by New Delhi through appointed officials, resulting in restricted civil liberties and media censorship. Notably, separatists, who have historically opposed New Delhi’s control over Kashmir, did not boycott this local election for the first time in decades. Both India and Pakistan administer portions of Kashmir but claim the region in its entirety. Since 1989, militants in the Indian-controlled area have resisted New Delhi's rule, with many Muslim Kashmiris supporting the rebels’ aspiration for either integration with Pakistan or independence.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇹🇼 NEW PRESIDENT’S TOUGH STANCE ON AUTONOMY ESCALATES TAIPEI-BEIJING TENSIONS, SAYS CRISIS GROUP REPORT

Background

Tensions are escalating in the Taiwan Strait as President Lai Ching-te’s new administration in Taipei adopts a firmer stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty and autonomy from China. This approach is deemed necessary in response to Beijing's increasingly aggressive behaviour, particularly after what China perceived as its extension of a goodwill gesture toward Lai's incoming government. In reaction, China has intensified military displays and is likely to continue challenging Taiwan's de facto sovereignty. While outright conflict seems improbable in the near term, sustained confrontation may impede both governments' ability to effectively manage their differences. As per an International Crisis Group report, It is essential for Taipei to adopt a more measured tone regarding its sovereignty, while Beijing should reduce military harassment of Taiwan, while Washington must also underscore the mutual benefits of de-escalation to both sides.

Taiwan-China relations

In his first 100 days, President Lai has confronted Chinese aggression with a more assertive stance, further heightening tensions. His inauguration speech reiterated the Democratic Progressive Party's position that Taiwan is a sovereign state, marking a departure from the ambiguous language used by his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. While Tsai skillfully balanced assertions of sovereignty to avoid exacerbating relations with China, Lai’s explicit challenge to Beijing’s claims signals a firm commitment to Taiwan's autonomy, especially in light of the growing pressures from China during Tsai’s tenure.

For China, Lai’s assertive inauguration speech was a significant provocation. Despite previous criticisms of him during the campaign, Beijing had softened its rhetoric post-election, framing the cross-strait relationship in terms of shared cultural and historical ties. However, Lai’s strong assertion of Taiwan’s separate identity prompted China to respond with increased military activity and severe denunciations directed at both Taipei and Washington. The timing of these escalated reactions indicates that China initially expected a more moderate approach from Lai.

Washington’s Role

As the divide between Taiwan and China deepens, Washington’s role becomes increasingly significant yet complex. International Crisis Group suggests that the U.S. should privately convey to both parties the advantages of cautious management of tensions while firmly opposing any unilateral changes to the status quo. In dealings with Beijing, Washington must emphasise the reputational costs of aggressive posturing and reassure Taiwan of ongoing U.S. support for its defence reforms. It is equally important to encourage Taipei to adopt a more measured tone regarding its sovereignty, reinforcing the benefits of diplomatic restraint in maintaining international support.

The Path Ahead

While maintaining a posture of military readiness, China acknowledges the risks associated with a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, particularly the potential for direct conflict with the U.S. and challenges stemming from its own economic situation. Despite retaliatory measures, Beijing remains confident in the prospect of eventual unification and seeks to downplay the significance of Lai’s tougher stance. No clear political resolution appears imminent, but reducing immediate tensions would benefit both sides and facilitate better long-term management of their differences. Lai should strive for a more balanced approach in affirming Taiwan’s sovereignty, while Beijing ought to temper its rhetoric and military manoeuvres.

International Crisis Group asserts that strengthening communication channels between the Democratic Progressive Party and Beijing is crucial. Although formal political dialogue may not be feasible soon, fostering trust through back channels and informal discussions can help reduce misunderstandings. Track II initiatives such as resuming student exchanges and tourism could contribute to a more conducive atmosphere for improved relations.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin warns of potential nuclear weapon use if the West supplies Kyiv with long-range missiles: Vladimir Putin has escalated his nuclear rhetoric, warning that Russia may use nuclear weapons if attacked by any nation with conventional forces. During a security council meeting, he updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, marking a strong warning to the West over Ukraine's potential use of long-range Western missiles. He stated that Russia would consider nuclear action if credible intelligence indicated a large-scale attack. Additionally, he cautioned that any nuclear power aiding such an assault would be seen as complicit in aggression, emphasising the need to adapt to evolving military threats.