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Myanmar’s junta and resistance clash over financial lifelines; Pezeshkian backs U.S. talks in nuclear standoff; Milei launches ‘Isaac Accords’ with Israel.

In today’s lead story: Putin’s Donbas gambit and what’s at stake in Alaska.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta and resistance wage parallel wars over financial lifelines: Myanmar’s post-coup conflict is as much financial as military. The junta funds its rule through tight control of state revenues, customs duties, and the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), which issues credit and prints cash, fuelling inflation near 30% and an 80% currency collapse since 2021. In contrast, the resistance relies on diaspora lotteries, “war bonds,” property auctions, and cryptocurrency systems. International sanctions have targeted key state banks and frozen over $1 billion in CBM assets in the U.S., while new U.S. legislation aims to expand these measures. The junta seeks to bypass restrictions through alternative banks and lobbying. Both sides fight on dual fronts — in Myanmar’s towns and villages, and in global financial hubs where control over foreign exchange is as decisive as control over territory.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump seizes control of DC police and deploys National Guard under ‘crime emergency’: On 11 August, President Donald Trump declared a “crime emergency” in Washington, DC, transferring authority over the Metropolitan Police to Attorney General Pam Bondi and ordering Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to mobilise 800 National Guard troops. Trump vowed “historic action” to combat what he called an “epidemic of crime,” despite Justice Department data showing violent crime at a 30-year low and down 26% this year. Critics question the legal basis and motives, pointing to a high-profile assault case and Trump’s long history of stoking fear over crime. The emergency order lasts 30 days, though Trump may seek an extension. While legal latitude exists for deploying the DC Guard, opponents warn the move risks normalising military involvement in policing and increasing the potential for excessive force.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇱🇾 🇹🇩 Sudan emerges as a new hub for captagon production: With Syria’s state-backed captagon industry dismantled, production networks are shifting, and Sudan is rapidly becoming a key hub. Since the outbreak of civil war in April 2023, authorities have uncovered major laboratories, including one capable of producing 100,000 pills per hour, often in RSF-controlled areas. Weak governance, porous borders, and proximity to Gulf markets make Sudan ideal for manufacturing and smuggling. The RSF’s history of profiting from illicit economies—from gold to livestock—suggests likely involvement, using the drug trade to fund its war effort. As the RSF retreats to Darfur, production is expected to follow established trafficking routes into Libya and Chad, embedding captagon into Sudan’s conflict economy and deepening the war’s regional criminal dimensions.

4️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan launches targeted operation against militants in Bajaur, displacing nearly 100,000: Pakistani security forces have begun a “targeted operation” against militant hideouts in Bajaur district, a former Pakistani Taliban stronghold on the Afghan border, prompting almost 100,000 residents to flee. Officials stressed the offensive, backed by helicopters, was limited in scope to avoid civilian casualties, with displaced families promised 50,000 rupees ($175) in compensation. Locals, many still recovering from the destruction of the 2009 military campaign in the area, voiced fears over their homes and safety. Authorities say Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters, sheltered in Afghanistan since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, have re-entered Bajaur to launch attacks. The operation underscores Pakistan’s struggle to contain cross-border militancy despite past claims of victory in the region.

5️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇹🇳 🇱🇾 🇲🇷 🇪🇭 Digital connectivity fuels grassroots push for Arab Maghreb unity: Long paralysed by authoritarian politics and regional rivalries, the Arab Maghreb Union has struggled to realise its 1989 vision of integration. Now, digital tools, rising civic engagement, and shifting geopolitical realities are reviving the idea  from the ground up. Online platforms bypass state controls, enabling dialogue among Moroccans, Algerians, Tunisians, Mauritanians, Libyans, and Sahrawis that was once blocked by governments. Civil society activism, especially post-2011, is reshaping mutual perceptions and weakening decades of propaganda. In an era where regional blocs wield greater influence, Maghreb citizens increasingly see unity as essential to tackling climate change, migration, and security threats. While diplomatic rifts persist, grassroots initiatives are building new channels of cooperation, suggesting that meaningful integration may yet emerge without state leadership.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 PUTIN’S DONBAS GAMBIT AND THE STAKES FOR THE ALASKA SUMMIT

On the eve of his Alaska meeting with President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin is advancing a proposal that would see Ukraine cede the Donbas to Russia as a precondition for a ceasefire. While no breakthrough is expected, the move serves a deeper purpose: prying the United States away from Ukraine and Europe. Securing the summit itself marks a diplomatic win for Putin after months of stalemate and rising U.S. criticism, and it provides a platform to reset the narrative in Moscow’s favour.

The Wedge Strategy

By making territorial concessions the opening demand, Putin positions the U.S. in potential conflict with its allies. Ukraine and European leaders reject the idea outright, insisting territorial issues be addressed only after a ceasefire. Yet the tactic exploits differences in how Washington and Kyiv value territory, especially given past U.S. hints at recognising Russia’s hold over Crimea and recent talk of “land swaps.”

Putin has previously floated demands designed to undercut Ukraine: questioning President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, pushing for elections under martial law, and calling for an end to Western security assistance. Washington has so far resisted, maintaining that Ukraine must retain robust defence ties with the West and that its government’s legitimacy rests on its constitution.

The Real Test in Alaska

Uncertainty remains over what Moscow is truly offering, whether it would trade territory on the southern front, or drop its insistence on Ukraine’s “demilitarisation” and elections. For the US, the key question is whether Putin will make credible commitments before demanding painful, unilateral concessions. If not, the risk is falling into a familiar Kremlin trap: endless talks designed to fracture the Western coalition.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇺🇳 Pezeshkian defends U.S. talks, challenges hardliners amid nuclear standoff: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly rebuked domestic opponents of engagement with Washington, warning that without diplomacy, renewed U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities are likely. He stressed that all decisions are coordinated with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—a stance aimed at shielding himself from ultraconservatives but which may also constrain Khamenei’s ability to discreetly signal flexibility. Hardline outlets accused Pezeshkian of projecting weakness, while Reformists praised his candour about Iran’s political and economic realities. Talks with the U.S. remain stalled, with European powers threatening to trigger a “snapback” of UN sanctions if no progress is made. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency has opened discussions on a new cooperation framework, following Iran’s suspension of inspector access after June’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.

2️⃣ 🇳🇬 🇺🇸 U.S. approves $346m arms sale to Nigeria to boost counter-terrorism operations: The U.S. has approved a $346 million arms package for Nigeria, including MK-82 bombs, precision-guided rockets, laser-guidance kits, and high-explosive munitions. The State Department said the deal aims to strengthen a key West African partner against terrorist threats and illicit trafficking. The weapons, which also include technical support services, are intended to bolster Nigeria’s campaigns against Boko Haram and ISWAP, whose insurgencies have devastated the country’s northeast. Nigerian forces have killed 592 militants in Borno State over the past eight months, according to Air Chief Hasan Abubakar, who described this year’s air campaign as “quicker, more precise, and more surgical.” Officials believe the influx of precision weapons could significantly enhance Nigeria’s ability to dismantle militant networks and reclaim territory.

3️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇮🇱 Argentina’s Milei launches ‘Isaac Accords’ to deepen Latin America–Israel ties: Argentine President Javier Milei is using his $1m Genesis Prize award to fund the American Friends of the Isaac Accords (AFOIA), a nonprofit aimed at fostering diplomatic, economic, and cultural cooperation between Israel and Latin American nations. Modeled on the Trump-era Abraham Accords, the initiative will initially target Uruguay, Panama, and Costa Rica, with expansion to Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and El Salvador planned by 2026. The move comes as regional sentiment turns sharply against Israel over its war in Gaza, with several countries cutting ties and joining legal action at the International Court of Justice. Milei’s staunchly pro-Israel stance—including plans to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem—has drawn domestic protests and may clash with Argentina’s ICC obligations if Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visits, given his outstanding war crimes warrant.

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Prisoners of Geography

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