Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Putin weighs Ukraine deal

📰 Putin weighs Ukraine deal

and Beijing threatens action

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 18, 2025

Hello,

In East Asia, Beijing describes military drills near Taiwan as a “punishment for separatism,” while in Africa, the African Union’s new chair takes office, signaling interest in adopting Djibouti’s diplomatic model.

Our top story examines Trump’s second term and the evolving U.S.–Saudi relationship.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin agrees in principle with proposal for Ukraine ceasefire: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold discussions this week, as Moscow remains undecided on a U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal for Ukraine, according to special envoy Steve Witkoff. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accepted the plan, Putin has yet to fully commit, citing unresolved concerns for Russia. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently discussed the ceasefire’s implementation following a summit in Saudi Arabia, though Moscow has not confirmed any agreement. Zelenskyy accused Putin of stalling negotiations to improve Russia’s battlefield position before committing to peace. Despite Putin's claims that the ceasefire favours Ukraine, pressure is mounting as Russian forces advance in key areas while Ukraine struggles to maintain leverage in future talks.

2️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇺🇸 South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S. declared persona non grata: The United States has expelled South Africa’s ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Rasool of harboring anti-American and anti-Trump sentiments, citing remarks the envoy made in a South African think tank’s webinar. In his speech, Rasool discussed demographic shifts in the U.S. and criticized Trump’s engagement with far-right figures, which Rubio condemned as “race-baiting.” The expulsion escalated already strained U.S.-South Africa relations, following Trump’s decision to freeze aid to Pretoria over allegations that land was being seized from white farmers. Trump has since invited South African farmers to immigrate to the U.S., further fueling tensions. South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, called the expulsion “regrettable” and urged diplomatic restraint, as political divisions deepen between the two nations.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudan the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, says UNICEF: Sudan’s ongoing war has triggered an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe, with over 30 million people in urgent need of aid, including 16 million children struggling to survive, according to UNICEF chief Catherine Russell. She warned the U.N. Security Council that children are enduring horrific violence, with an estimated 1.3 million at risk of famine and 770,000 facing severe malnutrition, many unlikely to survive without immediate intervention. Both Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) stand accused of committing atrocities, including indiscriminate bombings, mass killings, and widespread sexual violence. Despite U.N. resolutions demanding an end to the violence, little action has followed. With U.S. foreign aid drastically reduced under the Trump administration, Washington has approved only limited emergency relief, while UNICEF warns that at least $1 billion is needed to protect Sudan’s most vulnerable children.

4️⃣ 🇬🇱 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Greenland the new epicentre of geopolitical competition for the Arctic: Greenland, one of the world’s most remote regions, has become a focal point in international geopolitics due to its strategic location between the U.S., Europe, and Russia. The island's vast reserves of minerals, oil, and natural gas, combined with its emerging trade routes, have heightened global interest. While the U.S. maintains a military presence at its Pituffik base, China has pursued infrastructure projects and mineral investments, positioning Greenland as part of its Arctic Silk Road. The Trump administration has underscored Greenland’s importance to U.S. national security, particularly as China and Russia expand their influence in the Arctic. Trump's remarks on acquiring the island, despite Denmark’s opposition, highlight its perceived role in America’s defense strategy and resource security. As tensions rise, Greenland remains central to the evolving balance of power in the Arctic.

5️⃣ 🇧🇪 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 Rwanda, Belgium expel each other’s diplomats over DRC conflict: Rwanda severed diplomatic ties with Belgium on Monday as EU ministers imposed sanctions on Rwandan military officials and M23 rebel leaders over their involvement in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The sanctions target key figures within the Rwanda Defense Force (RDF) and M23, as well as a refinery accused of trafficking resources from eastern DRC. Belgium, which has backed DRC in the conflict, condemned Rwanda’s decision as “disproportionate” and announced reciprocal measures, expelling Rwandan diplomats and freezing cooperation agreements. Meanwhile, critics argue that the EU has fueled the crisis by signing a critical minerals deal with Rwanda, potentially enabling the smuggling of conflict minerals from DRC. The diplomatic fallout comes just ahead of peace talks between DRC and M23 rebels, scheduled to begin in Angola on Tuesday.

Major Story

🇸🇦 🇺🇸 TRUMP’S SECOND TERM AND THE SHIFTING U.S.–SAUDI RELATIONSHIP

In his first months back in office, U.S. President Donald Trump has engaged closely with Saudi Arabia, yet key policy shifts indicate growing tensions between the two allies. While Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran threatens Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, his handling of Gaza and oil production risks undermining Riyadh’s strategic goals. A forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza would make a U.S.-Saudi defense pact unlikely, while Trump’s push to lower oil prices could jeopardize Saudi Arabia’s economic ambitions.

The Risks of Renewed Hostility with Iran

Saudi Arabia has pursued a “zero-conflict” policy since 2021, avoiding direct confrontation with Iran and its allies. Trump’s aggressive stance, however, may reignite tensions, recalling Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019. A deterioration in Gulf stability could force Riyadh to abandon its diplomatic strategy, reversing its recent efforts to de-escalate conflicts in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria.

Complications in Saudi-Israeli Normalization

Trump’s claim that Saudi Arabia does not require a Palestinian state for normalization with Israel contradicts Riyadh’s diplomatic positioning. The war in Gaza has hardened Saudi public opinion, making any deal without a credible path to Palestinian statehood politically untenable. Additionally, Trump’s unpredictability raises doubts over his ability to deliver the security and nuclear agreements Saudi Arabia seeks as part of a normalization package.

Economic Pressures and Oil Policy

Trump’s plans to boost U.S. oil production and impose tariffs on China could drive oil prices below the levels Saudi Arabia needs to fund its Vision 2030 projects. With the kingdom still reliant on oil revenues, prolonged low prices could lead to growing deficits and increased borrowing, threatening Saudi Arabia’s long-term economic transformation.

Unless Trump adjusts to these new regional dynamics, U.S.-Saudi relations may face further strain.

Promotion

Unlock exclusive insights with our premium weekly newsletter.
Discover stories that flew under the radar.
Explore next week’s geopolitical milestones.
Weekly updates on the world’s most critical regions.
Help us take Horizon Geopolitics to the next level! Support the channel and fuel the creation of even better, high-quality content.

Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Syrian Druze clerics make historic visit to Israel: For the first time in over five decades, a delegation of Druze religious elders from Syria crossed into Israel on Friday, underscoring Israel’s increasing engagement with the community amid rising tensions with Syria’s new government. While officially presented as a religious pilgrimage, the visit carried clear political undertones, coinciding with Israeli airstrikes on Islamic Jihad targets in Damascus. Analysts view this as part of Israel’s broader strategy to exploit sectarian divisions and weaken Syria, a move seen as deeply cynical given Israel’s long-standing occupation of the Golan Heights and its history of intermittent violence against Druze communities in both the Golan and southern Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇩🇯 🇰🇪 African Union’s new chair takes office, looks to adopt Djibouti’s diplomatic model: Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s veteran foreign minister, assumed leadership of the African Union Commission after securing victory over Kenya’s Raila Odinga. His win marks a diplomatic triumph for Djibouti, a small but strategically adept nation, while delivering a setback to Kenya’s foreign policy ambitions under President William Ruto. Despite political differences with Odinga, Ruto personally championed his candidacy, possibly seeing his appointment as a way to sideline a formidable domestic rival ahead of Kenya’s next elections. Historically, AU Commission leadership has favored candidates backed by influential heads of state, as seen with South Africa’s Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Chad’s Moussa Faki. Though Odinga had strong credentials, his bid fell short, reflecting both Djibouti’s diplomatic maneuvering and Kenya’s inability to rally decisive continental support.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Military exercises near Taiwan are ‘punishment for separatism,’ says Beijing: The Chinese military remains on high alert, prepared to act swiftly against any move toward Taiwanese independence, according to Lin Xiangyang, commander of the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command. Speaking at a Beijing symposium marking 20 years of the Anti-Secession Law, Lin emphasized that the PLA stands “ready to fight at all times.” The law, which underpins Beijing’s stance on Taiwan, authorizes the use of “non-peaceful means” if necessary to ensure reunification. His remarks come amid rising tensions following the election of Taiwan’s pro-independence leader William Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has labeled a “dangerous separatist.” Lin warned that if Taiwan independence forces or external actors provoke instability, the Chinese military will take decisive action to “strongly deter and punish them.”