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📰 Putin will not attend Istanbul talks

📰 Putin will not attend Istanbul talks

and Kurdish PKK declares disarmament

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 15, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

In Asia, China and Cambodia have begun their largest-ever joint military drills, while Bangladesh’s interim government has suspended all activities of the ruling Awami League. In Uganda, concerns over election violence grow in Uganda as the President Museveni’s son escalates threats and political theatrics.

Our lead story today: the PKK announces its decision to disarm and dissolve after decades of armed insurgency.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso junta implicated in massacres of civilians, JNIM carries out retaliatory attacks says HRW: In March 2025, Burkinabè armed forces and pro-government militias reportedly massacred over 130 Fulani civilians near Solenzo during Operation Green Whirlwind 2, Human Rights Watch has found. Witnesses described coordinated military and militia attacks across Banwa and Sourou provinces, with civilians—mostly women, children, and the elderly—trapped and killed. The violence triggered retaliatory attacks by al-Qaeda-linked JNIM, killing at least 100 more. Despite government claims of anti-terrorist operations, evidence indicates the Fulani community was directly targeted, raising grave concerns of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin will not travel to Istanbul for Ukraine peace talks, Kremlin confirms: Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the proposed Ukraine peace talks in Turkey, despite having initiated the idea, the Kremlin confirmed. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to participate conditionally—insisting on a 30-day ceasefire—Putin never addressed the request publicly. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been advocating for a deal, said Putin rejected a ceasefire but still pressed Zelenskyy to attend. A Russian delegation led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky will represent Moscow in Istanbul, but Trump, who intended to join only if Putin attended, is now unlikely to appear.

3️⃣ 🇱🇾 Armed groups clash in Tripoli as Gnewa’s death leaves power vacuum: Renewed violence has engulfed Tripoli following the assassination of Abdel Ghani al-Kikli (Gnewa), a powerful militia leader and vocal critic of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba. His killing triggered a fierce struggle between rival armed factions aligned with the Tripoli-based government—pitting the interior ministry’s Al-Rada force against defence ministry-aligned units, including the 444 Brigade. Gnewa’s death created a sudden power vacuum, with his loyalists fleeing and rival groups seizing control of strategic sites. Dabaiba’s declaration that the era of “parallel security systems” was over provoked backlash and may have sparked the escalation, with Al-Rada fearing they were next. While eastern Libyan factions remain on the sidelines for now, their entry could plunge the capital into all-out war. For Tripoli’s residents, the violence marks a grim return to insecurity and political chaos.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 All 2.1 Gazans face life-threatening food insecurity, says IPC: A report from the UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reveals that all 2.1 million people in Gaza face life-threatening food insecurity, with nearly a quarter already starving. This crisis, deepened by 19 months of war and a full Israeli blockade since March 2, stems from Israel’s restrictions on aid and goods as part of its military strategy. The IPC’s analysis, based on an Israeli-U.S. aid plan that drastically reduces distribution sites and coverage, warns that even partial implementation would worsen mass starvation. The Famine Review Committee also issued public caution, warning that calibrating aid to keep Gaza just below famine is dangerously unsustainable and is causing mass death. While no formal famine has been declared, the report underscores that Gaza is already in a catastrophic hunger crisis driven by systematic Israeli policy.

5️⃣ 🇧🇩 Dhaka bans all Awami League activities: The interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has officially banned all activities of the former ruling Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Act. Law affairs adviser Asif Nazrul stated the decision was made to safeguard national security and protect participants in last year’s mass uprising, during which up to 1,400 people were reportedly killed. The ban, covering both online and offline activities, will remain in effect until a special tribunal completes its proceedings against Sheikh Hasina and other senior Awami League leaders. Hasina, accused in multiple murder cases, has been in exile in India since August following her ouster.

Major Story

🇹🇷 🇸🇾 PKK DECLARES DISARMAMENT: A TURNING POINT IN KURDISH-TURKISH RELATIONS

Earlier this week, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has announced it will formally disband its armed forces and end its decades-long insurgency against Turkey, marking a potential watershed moment for Kurdish-Turkish relations. The move follows a public call in February by the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, who urged a shift toward democratic political engagement. PKK leaders claimed their armed struggle had fulfilled its historical purpose and paved the way for a political resolution to Kurdish grievances.

Political Motives and Erdogan’s Response

The announcement comes amid growing speculation that Turkish nationalist leader Devlet Bahçeli, a key coalition partner to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been quietly courting Kurdish political factions to help extend Erdoğan’s political longevity. While Erdoğan welcomed the PKK’s disarmament, no formal peace framework has been presented. The group reiterated demands for Öcalan’s release to oversee the dissolution.

Implications for Kurdish Forces in Syria

The PKK’s decision puts pressure on affiliated Kurdish factions in Syria, especially the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have faced mounting strain following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the withdrawal of U.S. troops. SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has since agreed to integrate into Syria’s new post-Assad military structure and downplayed any link to the PKK’s fate.

Decades of Conflict

Founded in 1978, the PKK launched its armed campaign in 1984 seeking autonomy and rights for Turkey’s Kurdish minority. The conflict has left over 40,000 dead, a staggering figure that includes predominantly civilians.. While previous ceasefires collapsed, this latest announcement may represent a pivotal step toward lasting peace—provided it is met with meaningful political dialogue from Ankara.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇭 China, Cambodia launch largest ever joint military exercise: China and Cambodia have launched their largest-ever joint military exercises, the Golden Dragon 2025 drills, featuring nearly 900 Chinese troops and over 1,300 Cambodian soldiers. The drills, running until May 28, include advanced Chinese equipment such as warships, drones, helicopters, and robot battle dogs. A Chinese naval vessel docked at the Beijing-renovated Ream Naval Base earlier this week to deliver hardware for the operation. Cambodian officials say the exercises aim to deepen military cooperation, while analysts suggest China is using them to signal its growing regional power. The drills follow a recent visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping and come as Cambodia prepares to receive two Chinese warships, underscoring Phnom Penh’s strategic alignment with Beijing.

2️⃣ 🇺🇬 Muhoozi’s threats and spectacle fuel fears of election violence in Uganda: Uganda’s political climate is deteriorating rapidly ahead of the 2026 elections, with General Muhoozi Kainerugaba—the son and likely successor of President Yoweri Museveni—at the centre of escalating tensions. Through inflammatory social media posts, Muhoozi has flaunted impunity, including threats to behead opposition leader Bobi Wine and boasting about abducting and torturing Wine’s bodyguard. His actions evoke Uganda’s history of ethnicised violence, undercutting the very stability his father’s regime once claimed to uphold. With democratic space shrinking and tribal divisions openly weaponised, analysts warn that the combination of repression, polarisation, and dynastic ambition is setting the stage for serious unrest.