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📰 Rafah completely uninhabitable

📰 Rafah completely uninhabitable

and Syrian Kurds want federal state design

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 29, 2025

Hello,

Today, the UK and EU move toward a new trade and security partnership, Saudi Arabia and Qatar agree to settle Syria’s World Bank debt, and Guinea’s junta accelerates plans for a constitutional referendum.

Our lead story explores pathways to de-escalation in the growing diplomatic crisis between Algeria and Mali.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 ICJ hears Gaza blockade case as Cairo ceasefire talks show signs of progress: The International Court of Justice began hearings Monday on Israel’s total blockade of Gaza, with representatives from 40 countries set to speak after an opening address by the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, UN agencies warned that food supplies have entirely run out, with 16 community kitchens forced to close over the weekend and more closures imminent. As Israeli strikes continue, killing at least 17 people, Egyptian security sources said negotiations in Cairo had achieved a “significant breakthrough” toward a long-term ceasefire, though major sticking points remain, particularly Hamas’s refusal to disarm. Egypt’s intelligence chief is expected to meet an Israeli delegation in Cairo to continue discussions.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇰🇵 Russia regains control of Kursk, says Kremlin: The Kremlin has claimed that Ukrainian forces had been fully expelled from Russia’s Kursk region, while for the first time confirming North Korean troops' involvement in the fighting. Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine suffered "huge losses," a claim Kyiv dismissed as “propaganda” while insisting its forces still control about 30 sq km. The announcement came as U.S. President Donald Trump, after meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican, questioned Putin’s willingness to negotiate peace, accusing him of prolonging the war through missile attacks on civilians. Meanwhile, Russian officials credited North Korean troops—deployed in the thousands and equipped with artillery systems—for aiding Moscow’s advances, as Ukraine vowed its defensive operations in Kursk and Belgorod would continue.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 🇮🇳 Pakistani troops clash with Afghani militants, Islamabad calls Delhi accusations ‘baseless’: Pakistani security forces announced they had killed 54 militants overnight who attempted to cross into the country from Afghanistan, in one of the deadliest infiltration incidents in recent years. The military said intelligence suggested they were dispatched by “foreign masters” to conduct major attacks. The militants were intercepted near North Waziristan, a former Pakistani Taliban stronghold along the Afghan border, amid rising tensions after India accused Pakistan of involvement in a deadly assault in Kashmir. Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tatar accused New Delhi of leveling “baseless accusations” to divert Islamabad’s focus from counterterrorism operations along its western frontier.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 A fifth of Gaza reduced to Israeli buffer zones as Rafah wiped out: Israeli forces have methodically emptied and destroyed Rafah, with most residents fleeing north under heavy shelling as tanks and bulldozers advanced. Entire neighborhoods, including Yibna refugee camp and Tal al-Sultan, have been razed to create a vast buffer zone along the Egyptian border, while new military corridors like the Morag Corridor now divide Gaza internally. Satellite imagery and resident accounts confirm that Rafah, once home to 200,000 people and making up a fifth of Gaza’s land, is no longer inhabitable. Locals accuse Israel of pursuing a long-term plan to make Gaza unlivable, citing widespread demolitions, the reoccupation of former settlement sites, and the establishment of permanent military infrastructure along key border areas.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syrian Kurds push for federal state design: Kurdish representatives in Syria met in Qamishli to push for a democratic and decentralized state guaranteeing ethnic and human rights after Bashar al-Assad’s ouster. Around 400 delegates, including from the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the PYD, and the Kurdish National Council, called for constitutional recognition of Kurdish national rights and women's participation in state institutions. While rejecting demands for full autonomy, the groups emphasized local governance rights and equal citizenship for all Syrians. The meeting was also attended by Kurdish representatives from Iraq and Turkey, underlining a broader regional effort to secure Kurdish cultural and political gains made during Syria’s civil war.

Major Story

🇩🇿 🇲🇱 🇲🇦 PATHWAYS TO DE-ESCALATION IN THE ALGERIA-MALI DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

Tensions between Algeria and Mali escalated after Algeria shot down a Malian drone that allegedly crossed into its airspace near Tin Zaouatine. Bamako denounced the move as a “hostile act” and accused Algiers of supporting terrorism, a claim Algeria rejected. The crisis quickly spiralled, leading to the withdrawal of ambassadors, closure of airspace, and Mali’s suspension from a key security coordination mechanism.

Deepening Fractures in Bilateral Relations

Once bonded by anti-colonial solidarity, Mali and Algeria have grown increasingly estranged. Mali's military-led government, distrustful of foreign influence, abandoned the 2015 Algiers Agreement following the recapture of Kidal in 2023, aligning more closely with Russia and fellow AES members. Algeria, meanwhile, maintains ties with separatist leaders, stoking Bamako’s suspicions that Algiers seeks to retain leverage over northern Mali.

Regional Rivalries and External Influences

Algeria’s perceived interference, combined with rising Moroccan, Turkish, and Iranian influence in Mali, has further complicated the dynamic. Algiers’ historical role as a mediator is increasingly challenged, as Bamako views it as part of a broader pattern of external meddling comparable to France’s controversial legacy in Mali. The growing geopolitical fragmentation across West Africa risks creating openings for jihadist groups to expand.

A Narrow Window for Diplomacy

Despite worsening rhetoric, both countries share critical security and economic interests that argue for renewed dialogue. African-led mediation efforts, particularly from the African Union, Ghana, or South Africa, could offer a neutral platform for talks. External actors like Russia or Qatar might also lend support to reinforce a diplomatic process, writes Crisis Group’s Francafrique programme. Reviving the dormant Mali-Algeria Joint Cooperation Committee could be crucial to managing border security and preventing further destabilisation in a region already on edge.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 UK, EU pursue new trade and security partnership: The UK and EU are finalizing a draft declaration for a "new strategic partnership" to be unveiled at their summit on 19 May, focused on closer cooperation over Ukraine, trade, and migration. Officials working behind closed doors for months say the plan will establish frameworks for future agreements, with proposals including a youth exchange scheme and deeper defence coordination. The effort comes as the UK seeks a separate tariff deal with the U.S., while facing a 10% levy compared to the EU’s 20%, amid broader concerns about global economic volatility. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed shared democratic values and called for renewed investment in North Sea renewables after talks with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

2️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇶🇦 🇸🇾 Saudi Arabia and Qatar to settle Syria’s World Bank debt: Saudi Arabia and Qatar announced that they will jointly pay Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank, marking a new step in efforts to rehabilitate the war-torn country’s economy. According to a statement by the Saudi Press Agency, the move follows renewed diplomatic engagement with Syria’s interim government after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad last December. The debt settlement comes just days after Syrian officials attended the IMF and World Bank spring meetings for the first time in over two decades. Clearing the arrears will allow Syria to regain access to World Bank funding and technical assistance, ending a 14-year suspension and opening the door to financial support for critical sectors.

3️⃣ 🇬🇳 Guinea’s junta accelerates plans for referendum: Guinea’s military rulers announced a constitutional referendum for 21 September, positioning it as a step toward restoring civilian rule following the 2021 coup against President Alpha Condé. General Mamadi Doumbouya’s government now frames its agenda as a “refoundation” of the state rather than a transition, while firmly signalling its intention to remain in power. Opposition parties, including the UFDG, have boycotted political consultations, accusing the junta of delaying genuine reforms to strengthen its grip. Meanwhile, the constitution under preparation remains undisclosed, deepening scepticism over the regime’s commitment to democratic transition.