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📰 Record Israel aid

📰 Record Israel aid

and Ukraine’s Crimea oil strike

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 09, 2024

Hello,

Today's update highlights significant developments across Asia, where South Korea and the Philippines have strengthened their bilateral ties amid escalating tensions with North Korea. In India, efforts are underway to mend relations with the Maldives. Additionally, Southeast Asia's geopolitical stability faces challenges as Cambodia emerges as a hub for transnational crime.

The main story today focuses on Tunisia, where President Kais Saied has secured a landslide victory for a second term following the suppression of political opposition.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Almost 60% of Gaza destroyed in one year: Over the past year, Israeli airstrikes and ground operations have devastated Gaza, crippling essential infrastructure and severely disrupting Palestinian life. As the conflict extends to southern Lebanon, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepens. Since October 7, more than 41,600 Palestinians, including 11,300 children and 6,300 women, have been killed. The UN estimates 90% of Gaza’s population has been displaced at least once. Critical infrastructure is collapsing—60% of buildings and 68% of roads are damaged or destroyed. Only 17 of 36 hospitals remain partly functional, all suffering from shortages of fuel, medical supplies, and clean water. Food insecurity worsens under new customs rules on aid. This escalation follows the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed over 1,200 people. Israel's military response continues, with significant destruction now concentrated in southern Gaza, particularly near Rafah.

2️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇱🇦 🇲🇲 Southeast Asia's geopolitical stability at risk as Cambodia becomes a hub for transnational crime: Cambodia's weak institutions and massive external financial flows have made it a hotspot for transnational crime, with a sharp rise in illegal activities since 2021. Human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and fraud are increasingly rampant, threatening regional stability and global security, extending to North America, Europe, and Oceania. Chinese-backed criminal networks exploit corruption in Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia, using abandoned casinos, hotels, and Special Economic Zones, particularly in cities like Sihanoukville, Poipet, and Bavet, as hubs for drug trafficking and cyber scams. After Cambodia joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, a surge in Chinese investment fueled gambling-driven development. However, a 2019 ban on online gambling and the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns crippled tourism and casino revenue, prompting these enterprises to collaborate with organised crime groups, escalating human trafficking and other illicit activities.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Kyiv strikes oil terminals in Russian-occupied Crimea: Ukraine’s military has reported a successful strike on a key oil terminal in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea, which has been supplying fuel to Russia’s war efforts. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the conflict has now entered a crucial phase. The attack, part of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to weaken Russia’s military and economic capabilities, was carried out overnight. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both nations have been grappling with sustaining a costly war of attrition with no clear end in sight. While Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed the strike, Russian-installed authorities in Feodosia acknowledged a fire at the terminal but provided no details on its cause. This operation marks another step in Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt Russia’s supply chains in the ongoing conflict.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇱🇧 U.S. seeks to install new Lebanese president: U.S. officials report that the White House aims to capitalise on Israel's recent strikes against Hizbollah's leadership to push for the election of a new Lebanese president. Lebanon has been without a president for nearly two years, worsening political instability and the ongoing economic crisis. Israeli strikes killed Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior cadres, including two Radwan Force commanders. One potential candidate, Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun, has the backing of the U.S. and France. U.S. officials see a rare chance to elect a president not aligned with the group, aiming to reduce its influence over Lebanon's political system. According to Axios, Washington’s priority is electing a president before seeking a ceasefire and diplomatic solution.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇲🇻 India seeks to repair ties with Maldives: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasised the strong relationship between India and the Maldives, calling the island nation a "close friend" and highlighting its significance in India’s "neighbourhood first" policy. During a joint press conference following talks in New Delhi, Modi announced an increase in India’s development assistance to the Maldives, aiming to mend ties that had previously been strained due to the Maldivian president’s closer relations with China. India pledged financial support, including a $100 million treasury bills rollover and a $400 million currency swap agreement. Additionally, the leaders inaugurated a new runway at Hanimaadhoo International Airport and Modi committed to accelerating work on the India-backed Greater Male Connectivity Project, which seeks to improve transportation links between the Maldives’ key islands.

Major Story

🇹🇳 TUNISIA’S PRESIDENT WINS LANDSLIDE SECOND TERM AFTER SUPPRESSION OF POLITICAL OPPOSITION

Background

Tunisian President Kais Saied has secured a second five-year term with a decisive victory, winning 90.7% of the vote in Sunday’s election. However, the election was marked by one of the lowest turnouts in Tunisia's history, with only 27.7% of eligible voters participating, according to the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE). This figure, though higher than the mere 11% turnout for last December’s local elections, reflects growing disillusionment among the population.

Saied’s two main opponents, Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui, were unable to challenge. Zammel, who came in second with 7.4% of the vote, had been jailed just a week before the election on charges of falsifying documents. Maghzaoui, a former ally of Saied, also fared poorly. Notably, more than a dozen candidates were disqualified by ISIE before the election, narrowing the field and limiting competition.

Political Discontent and Authoritarian Shifts

The low voter turnout is a clear sign of growing discontent among Tunisians, many of whom see the country slipping into authoritarianism under Saied’s leadership. After coming to power in 2019 following Tunisia’s second election since the Arab Spring, Saied has taken increasingly drastic measures to consolidate power. He suspended parliament, supported a referendum that granted him sweeping executive authority, and cracked down on political opposition. Multiple opposition figures, including former MP Said Ferjani, have been detained with limited access to legal representation.

Saied's Vision

In his victory speech, Saied portrayed his win as a continuation of the Jasmine revolution, vowing to root out corruption and betrayal. "We will build and will cleanse the country of the corrupt, traitors, and conspirators," he declared. This rhetoric has been a hallmark of his presidency, with Saied positioning himself as the champion of Tunisia’s fight against entrenched elites.

International Criticism

Saied has faced international criticism, particularly after his 2023 comments regarding undocumented black immigrants in Tunisia, which many viewed as racially charged. He dismissed the criticism by claiming familial ties to Africans, stating, “I have relatives who are married to Africans, so I cannot be racist.” Despite these controversies, Saied has managed to maintain a firm grip on power, although his government's legitimacy is increasingly questioned by both domestic and international observers.

The Path Ahead

While Saied’s landslide victory grants him another term, the historically low turnout underscores widespread dissatisfaction with Tunisia’s current political trajectory. As Tunisia faces increasing authoritarianism, Saied's continued hold on power is likely to deepen political divisions and exacerbate economic and social tensions. The road ahead for Tunisia is uncertain, with democratic principles hanging in the balance.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇰🇷 Manila and Seoul upgrade bilateral ties: During a state visit to the Philippines, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced an upgraded "strategic partnership" between their countries, focusing on expanded defence and security cooperation. Marcos emphasised the importance of collaboration in navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment and promoting a rules-based order under international law. Both nations are facing growing regional threats— the Philippines is embroiled in the South China Sea dispute with China, while North Korea has escalated provocations against South Korea. Yoon stressed the need for peace in critical waterways and condemned North Korea's nuclear ambitions and military ties with Russia. He also pledged South Korean assistance in modernising the Philippine military. Yoon's visit to Manila marks the first stop on a six-day tour that includes Singapore and Laos, where he will attend the ASEAN summit.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 U.S. spends record amount on military aid to Israel in the past year: The U.S. has allocated a record USD $17.9 billion in military aid to Israel since the conflict in Gaza escalated, according to a recent report. Additionally, $4.86 billion (£3.7 billion) has been directed toward increased U.S. military operations in the region following the October 7, 2023, attacks. This estimate was completed before Israel opened a second front against Hizbollah militants in Lebanon in late September. The report, compiled by Harvard professor Linda J. Bilmes and researchers William D. Hartung and Stephen Semler, is among the first to assess the costs of U.S. involvement as the Biden administration supports Israel’s military efforts while attempting to contain hostilities from Iran-backed groups. Israel remains the largest recipient of U.S. military aid, having received $251.2 billion (£191.4 billion) in inflation-adjusted dollars since 1959.