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📰 Right-wing wins Austria

📰 Right-wing wins Austria

Israel strikes Beirut

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 30, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today's dispatch outlines several key developments in the Middle East: Israeli airstrikes have severely impacted Central Beirut, Baalbek, Bekaa, and Sidon, while additional attacks target Yemen's Hodeidah and Ras Isa.

In Europe, Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) emerged as the leading force in the national election, leveraging public dissatisfaction with migration and increasing living costs. In Finland, NATO has announced plans to set up a land command along the Finland-Russia border, heightening Kremlin-NATO tensions.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇯🇵 Japan’s incoming Prime Minister calls end of October snap election: Japan’s incoming prime minister—Shigeru Ishiba—will dissolve the Lower House next week, setting a snap election for October 27. The newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president seeks a quick public mandate for his administration. Although not yet officially prime minister—parliament will confirm his appointment on Tuesday—Ishiba has already committed to the early election. The LDP, which holds 255 of 465 seats, faces opposition from the Constitutional Democratic Party, newly led by Yoshihiko Noda. Ishiba hopes the snap election will curb Noda’s momentum. The timing, ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, positions the LDP to focus on future diplomatic issues without another election until 2025.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Israeli raids devastate Central Beirut, Baalbek, Bekaa, and Sidon: An Israeli airstrike in the Bekaa Valley of eastern Lebanon on Sunday reportedly killed an entire family of 17 members, according to Lebanese media. Rescue efforts are ongoing in the aftermath of the strike, which targeted the town of Zboud. In central Beirut, the Cola area was struck for the first time since the conflict began. Additionally, an assault on multiple apartment buildings in Sidon, south of Beirut, has claimed over 25 lives, as per local sources. Since September 23, the Israeli military has intensified its operations against what it describes as Hizbollah targets, resulting in at least 816 fatalities and more than 2,500 injuries, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel have escalated amid the broader conflict in Gaza, which has already taken nearly 41,600 lives, primarily women and children, following Hamas's cross-border attack on October 7. The international community has cautioned that Israeli strikes in Lebanon risk expanding the Gaza conflict into a larger regional war.

3️⃣ 🇫🇮 🇷🇺 NATO to set up land command on Finland-Russia border: NATO will establish a new land command in Finland near the Russian border next year to lead its land operations in northern Europe during military conflict, Finland's defence minister announced on Friday. Finland, which joined NATO last year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is preparing to host the alliance's presence on its soil. Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen confirmed that NATO’s Multi Corps Land Component Command would be based alongside Finland's Army Headquarters in Mikkeli, near the Finnish-Russian border. This follows June's political agreement among all NATO members. The new command will operate under NATO’s Norfolk Joint Force Command in the U.S., collaborating closely with Finland’s land forces in Mikkeli.

4️⃣ 🇸🇴 Six killed in Mogadishu bomb blasts linked to al-Shabaab: An explosives-laden vehicle detonated near a restaurant in Mogadishu’s busy Hamar Weyne district, killing at least three people, including two women, according to witness Mohamed Haji Nur. The explosion occurred close to Somalia’s National Theater, about a kilometre from the president's office. In a separate attack, a bomb in Jowhar's livestock market killed one person and injured three others, according to police Commander Bashir Hassan. Though responsibility for the attacks hasn't been confirmed, the militant group al-Shabab is suspected. These events follow Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre's recent accusation at the UN General Assembly, alleging Ethiopia violated Somalia's territorial integrity. Tensions have risen since Ethiopia's maritime deal with Somaliland in January.

5️⃣ 🇦🇹 Far-right ‘Freedom Party’ narrowly wins Austrian election: For the first time since the Nazi era, Austria's far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) secured the most votes in a national election, capitalising on public discontent over migration and rising living costs. The FPÖ, known for its pro-Kremlin and anti-Islam stance, garnered 29.2% of the vote, surpassing Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP), which came second with 26.5%. The opposition Social Democrats recorded their worst-ever performance at 21%, while the liberal NEOS took 9%. Despite recent climate crisis concerns following devastating floods, the Greens managed only 8.3%. Turnout was high at 78%. The FPÖ's surge reflects a broader right-wing shift across Europe, fuelled by concerns over immigration, inflation, and discontent with pandemic-era policies.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇺🇸 US CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS IT HAS KILLED DOZENS OF ISIL, HURRAS AL-DIN FIGHTERS

The U.S. military announced it has eliminated dozens of fighters from Islamic State and an al-Qaeda-linked group during two separate operations in Syria this month. In a statement from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Sunday, officials revealed that a major airstrike on September 16 targeted a remote ISIL camp in central Syria, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 militants, including four senior leaders.

While the identities of the deceased were not disclosed, the statement highlighted that the attack would significantly weaken ISIL's capacity to carry out operations against U.S. interests and those of its allies.

Additionally, CENTCOM reported a strike in northwestern Syria on September 24 that killed nine fighters, including Marwan Bassam ‘Abd-al-Ra’uf, a senior leader of Hurras al-Din overseeing military operations in Syria. This operation marks the second targeting of the al-Qaeda-affiliated group’s leadership in two months, following the death of Abu-Abd al-Rahman al-Makki in August.

The U.S. has approximately 900 troops stationed in Syria—along with an undisclosed number of contractors—tasked with advising local allies to prevent the resurgence of ISIL, which captured significant territory in Syria and Iraq in 2014. The Syrian government has consistently opposed the U.S. presence, demanding the withdrawal of its forces.

In a separate development, blasts were reported near the Syrian capital of Damascus, according to the state news agency SANA on Sunday. An investigation is currently underway to determine the cause of the explosions.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israel launches airstrikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah, Ras Isa: Israel's military launched air raids on Houthi targets in Yemen, intensifying concerns of a broader regional conflict following escalated Israeli assaults on Gaza and Lebanon. On Sunday, Israel reported that fighter jets attacked power plants and seaports at Ras Isa and Hodeidah, killing at least four people—including a port worker and three engineers—according to local media group, Al Masirah TV. The strikes came a day after the Houthis claimed to have fired a ballistic missile at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv. Since last November, the Iran-backed group has regularly targeted Israel and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea and nearby waters, citing solidarity with Palestinians under attack in Gaza and, more recently, Israel's strikes on Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇱🇾 Libyan President promises return of international accountability: Libya's head of state, Mohamed al-Menfi, believes that a deal supported by both sides of the country's political divide to appoint a new central bank governor could resolve ongoing political issues. Menfi, president of the Presidential Council aligned with the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, faced backlash after dismissing long-serving governor Sadiq al-Kabir in August, leading to a shutdown of oil production by eastern forces. Menfi justified his actions, claiming Kabir had mismanaged the bank's funds without accountability. The newly brokered deal, which includes appointing Naji Issa as interim governor, aims for governance transparency and equitable distribution of state revenues. Menfi also indicated that the agreement could pave the way for tackling corruption and advancing towards promised parliamentary and presidential elections, enhancing Libya's long-term economic prospects.