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Today, the Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump privately approved Israel’s attack on Iran. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala survives a no-confidence vote, while Israel intensifies its bombardment of Gaza and accelerates annexation efforts in the West Bank amid shifting global attention.

Meanwhile, focus turns to Myanmar, where a rising Rohingya insurgency now threatens to derail fragile regional diplomacy in Rakhine.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 U.S. intervention would risk 'all out war', warns Iran foreign ministry spokesman: Iran has warned that any U.S. military intervention in its conflict with Israel risks triggering an “all-out war,” as cross-border attacks continue for a sixth day. President Trump, who has deployed additional warships and aircraft to the region, demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and hinted at targeting Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran responded by launching hypersonic missiles at Tel Aviv, while Israel targeted Iranian centrifuge sites in Tehran and Karaj. Casualties are mounting, with over 580 reported dead in Iran and 24 in Israel. As panic spreads in Tehran and embassies close, Iran’s UN envoy vowed to respond “without restraint,” while global powers express growing concern over the escalating conflict. Trump continues to weigh direct U.S. involvement.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 G7 unity in precarious position as Trump sidelines key discussions: President Donald Trump left the G7 Summit in Kananaskis early, missing key discussions with President Zelenskyy and leaders from Australia, Brazil, and India on energy and global security. His absence and ongoing provocations—tariffs on allies, threats to NATO cohesion, and abandonment of climate and poverty efforts—reflect a broader erosion of US alignment with the G7’s purported values. Canada’s Mark Carney shaped a minimalist agenda to avoid confrontation, opting for short statements instead of a joint communiqué. Yet even with careful diplomacy, the summit delivered little of substance. With Trump continuing to sideline global cooperation, experts suggest rethinking the G7 structure—potentially creating a “G6 plus” or treating the US as a guest—so future summits aren’t derailed by presidential unpredictability or obstructionism.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇿 🇰🇬 🇹🇯 🇹🇲 🇺🇿 Xi in Astana as Beijing expands Central Asia ties: China concluded its second Central Asia Summit with a pledge of 1.5 billion yuan (US$209 million) in grants for regional development, alongside the signing of a landmark Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighbourliness. President Xi Jinping also announced 3,000 training placements, new cooperation centres for poverty alleviation, education, and desertification, and deeper energy and security partnerships. Discussions with leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan included expanding trade, infrastructure, and green energy ties. Xi framed the summit as a turning point in China’s regional diplomacy amid global turbulence, stressing opposition to protectionism and support for multilateralism. Security cooperation—especially targeting terrorism, separatism, and extremism—featured prominently, underscoring China’s growing strategic footprint alongside its Belt and Road investments.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇱🇾 RSF claims capture of strategic Libya supply route in Sudan’s north, battle for El-Fasher continues: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) say they have seized the Karb al-Toum oasis near the Libyan and Egyptian borders, aiming to consolidate key supply lines. The move follows RSF’s reported capture of the “Triangle” border zone and comes amid a broader offensive into Northern State. RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Daglo claimed intelligence on “ISIS militants” in the area, declaring them a “legitimate target” while assuring civilians of safety. Analysts say the RSF seeks to reinforce its positions in Kordofan and Darfur, where it continues to press an assault on El Fasher. Sunday’s attack on the city was described as the most intense to date, deepening the siege on the army’s last stronghold in the region. Independent verification of RSF claims remains unavailable.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel intensifies Gaza bombardment, West Bank annexation as global focus shifts to Iran: Israeli attacks have killed at least 140 Palestinians in the past 24 hours, including 80 people seeking aid, according to Gaza’s health ministry and medics. Airstrikes hit homes in Maghazi camp, Zeitoun, Gaza City, and Khan Younis, while 14 civilians were shot dead while awaiting aid along Salahuddin Road. Since late May, 397 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces while trying to access food. Amnesty International warned against allowing the Iran conflict to distract from Israel’s actions in Gaza, the West Bank, and its broader system of apartheid. In the West Bank, Israel has reinforced closures and checkpoints, effectively trapping entire communities and limiting access to essential services.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇧🇩 🇺🇳 ROHINGYA INSURGENCY RISKS DERAILING FRAGILE REGIONAL DIPLOMACY IN RAKHINE

The Arakan Army’s decisive military victory over Myanmar’s junta in northern Rakhine has dramatically altered the region’s dynamics. With Maungdaw township falling in December 2024, the ethnic Rakhine armed group now controls the entire border with Bangladesh. This shift has galvanised Rohingya armed groups, which historically fought one another in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, to unite against the Arakan Army. Since a “harmony” agreement in November, camp violence has subsided, and recruitment efforts have surged, with religious leaders framing the campaign as a “jihad” against “non-believers.”

Military calculations and shifting loyalties

The Myanmar military’s earlier attempts to conscript Rohingya fighters to resist the Arakan Army sparked internal division. While many Rohingya opposed collaboration with the junta, growing hostility toward the Arakan Army’s rhetoric and alleged abuses has reframed the conflict in their eyes. Armed Rohingya factions now view the Arakan Army, rather than the junta, as the greater threat to repatriation hopes and community safety.

Bangladesh’s balancing act

Bangladeshi security agencies, long engaged with both the Arakan Army and Rohingya militants, appear to be leveraging the armed groups to pressure the Arakan Army into accepting refugee returns. While official support is unconfirmed, Dhaka’s alignment with the “unity” campaign risks undermining early dialogue efforts with the Arakan Army. The insurgency’s escalation threatens not only increased displacement but also the deterioration of critical cross-border relations.

Strategic costs and diminishing Rohingya legitimacy

Attacks by Rohingya groups may also harm their standing in Myanmar. The Arakan Army has earned domestic legitimacy by resisting the junta, and Rohingya opposition could alienate potential allies in Myanmar’s broader pro-democracy movement. Such positioning risks reinforcing anti-Rohingya narratives, making citizenship reform and long-term integration even more elusive.

Preventing escalation

To prevent deeper conflict, it is incumbent on Bangladesh to contain militant influence in refugee camps, support civilian leadership, and expand informal trade and humanitarian aid in Rakhine. Analysts write that the Arakan Army, now a dominant power, should engage Rohingya representatives and demonstrate inclusive governance. With U.S. aid waning, other international donors must act quickly to support camp stability—before frustration and despair fuel a deeper insurgency.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇿 Czech Prime Minister Fiala survives no-confidence vote amid bitcoin scandal: Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote sparked by a bitcoin donation scandal involving a convicted drug dealer. Only 94 MPs voted to topple the government—seven short of the 101 needed—while 98 opposed the motion. The controversy stems from former Justice Minister Pavel Blažek’s acceptance of €40 million in bitcoin from Tomáš Jiřikovský, a former darknet operator with a criminal record. Blažek, forced to resign, claimed the donation was legal and intended as “penance.” The scandal has boosted populist opposition leader Andrej Babiš, whose ANO party leads in polls. Fiala’s fragile coalition, holding just 104 seats, has now weathered five no-confidence attempts since 2021. New Justice Minister Eva Decroix pledged to restore trust and ensure a full investigation.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇸🇾 U.S. and EU begin to lift Syria sanctions as regional support shapes fragile recovery: The U.S. and EU have begun easing sanctions on Syria, with President Trump issuing indefinite waivers for key institutions and the EU following days later. Backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, Syria’s interim government has pushed for relief to support recovery efforts after Assad’s fall. While the move marks a critical turning point, the process remains complex—entangled in overlapping legal regimes like the Caesar Act and terrorism designations. Regional actors are rallying behind Syria’s reconstruction, but experts warn the slow pace of formal banking reform, widespread poverty, and over-compliance by financial institutions hinder progress. Analysts argue that Western policy should enable Syria’s transition by lifting conditionalities and empowering regional investment—lest delay deepen reliance on informal networks and rival powers like Iran and Russia.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Trump privately approved attack Israel’s attack on Iran, WSJ reports: President Trump approved military plans to target Iran’s nuclear sites but is delaying U.S. intervention to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear ambitions, according to officials. A key potential target is the fortified Fordow facility, buried deep underground. Trump warned that major developments could occur within days, reiterating demands for Iran’s unconditional surrender. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei rejected capitulation and warned of severe consequences if attacked. Meanwhile, U.S. forces have surged into the region, with a second carrier strike group heading toward the Arabian Sea. While the Pentagon frames the deployment as defensive, it also enhances U.S. readiness to support Israeli strikes or coerce Iranian concessions. Ongoing Israel-Iran exchanges have killed over 450 in Iran and 24 in Israel.

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