Hello and welcome back. 

From Eastern Europe, Zelenskyy accuses Moscow of 'buying time' in the Russia-Ukraine peace process, while Kadyrov’s deteriorating health raises questions over Chechnya’s succession. In Iran, Khamenei sharpens red lines amid renewed U.S. nuclear diplomacy.

Today’s lead story examines how last week’s crisis in Tripoli revealed the deep fragility of Libya’s security order.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Return to India-Pakistan conflict inevitable, say analysts: Though a ceasefire has paused the most advanced cross-border conflict yet between India and Pakistan, tensions remain high and hopes for diplomacy are dim. Both nations claimed victory, but analysts argue the conflict merely reinforced their adversarial dynamic, with India unable to fully dictate the post-war narrative. While New Delhi imposed tight controls on wartime communication, Pakistan seized the global airwaves, fuelling perceptions of imbalance. Trump's abrupt announcement of the ceasefire—and subsequent mediation offer on Kashmir—further undermined India’s longstanding position that the dispute is strictly bilateral, prompting outrage in Delhi and raising fears of renewed hostilities down the line.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇩🇪 UN peacekeeping faces financial strain and strategic drift amid calls for reform: At last week’s peacekeeping summit in Berlin, delegates from over 130 countries reaffirmed support for UN peacekeeping but struggled to chart a cohesive path forward amid financial pressures and shifting geopolitical realities. While more than half the delegations made new operational pledges, including equipment and training, discussions largely focused on technical upgrades rather than aligning peacekeeping with broader political goals. Mounting budget shortfalls—exacerbated by delayed U.S. and Chinese payments—threaten mission sustainability, with Germany warning allies they cannot cover lost funds alone. To ensure peacekeeping remains effective, member states must pair military support with diplomatic investment in conflict resolution and mediation capacity, especially as the UN pivots away from sprawling missions.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 UK suspends trade talks with Israel, summons envoy: The UK has suspended free-trade negotiations with Israel and summoned its ambassador, citing grave concerns over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and actions in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned the Netanyahu government’s conduct as “egregious,” criticising its widening war, aid restrictions, and plans to displace Palestinians. Britain also imposed sanctions on settler leaders and entities linked to violence, while warning that the conflict is entering a “dark new phase.” Despite reaffirming Israel’s right to self-defence and demanding Hamas release hostages, Lammy said the UK must now reassess bilateral cooperation, including the 2030 roadmap, in light of recent developments.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Khameini ‘sharpens red lines’ amid U.S. nuclear diplomacy: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled out ending uranium enrichment, calling U.S. demands “excessive” and dismissing the likelihood of meaningful progress in nuclear talks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed this stance, confirming that Tehran has not accepted a proposed date for further negotiations. Khamenei’s remarks reflect growing internal doubt over the usefulness of dialogue with Washington, particularly after conflicting statements about alleged U.S. proposals. Analysts say enrichment has become central to Iran’s national identity, while economic voices argue it could be exchanged for full sanctions relief. With both sides entrenched and Europe warning of reimposed UN sanctions, the fate of the 2015 deal—and regional stability—hangs in the balance.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇧🇷 🇿🇦 Reviving IBSA offers democratic Middle Powers a strategic alternative to BRICS: The India–Brazil–South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum, launched in 2003 to enhance South-South cooperation and global governance reform, has faded in relevance amid BRICS’ rise and internal geopolitical shifts. Yet the expanding divergence within BRICS—marked by China and Russia’s assertiveness and the bloc’s enlargement—has eroded its cohesiveness, opening a window to revive IBSA. As democracies with shared development goals, IBSA members could advance common agendas on trade, security, and institutional reform without BRICS’ complexities, writes FP. Reestablishing IBSA would offer a flexible, multi-aligned platform for middle powers to shape global norms and engage constructively with both Beijing and Washington, especially amid heightened strategic uncertainty.

Major Story

🇱🇾 🇺🇳 TRIPOLI CRISIS EXPOSES FRAGILITY OF LIBYA’S SECURITY ORDER

The killing of Abdelghani al-Kikli—known as “Ghneiwa”—during a meeting at Tekbali military camp has shattered illusions of stability in Tripoli. Ghneiwa, a dominant force in the capital and head of the state-affiliated Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), had amassed significant influence, leveraging both official roles and informal power. His death came amid intensifying rivalry with Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, as both vied for control over key state institutions such as the Central Bank and Libya’s telecom monopoly.

Cracks in Dbeibah’s Consolidation Strategy

Following Ghneiwa’s death, Dbeibah-aligned forces swiftly moved to dismantle SSA influence, triggering power vacuums and rapid military escalations. However, these efforts faltered as other armed groups, including factions aligned with Khalifa Haftar, mobilised in response. While Dbeibah has sought to centralise power in western Libya, his model remains shallow compared to Haftar’s entrenched control in the east.

A Fractured Political Landscape

Dbeibah’s power bid has met pushback not only from armed factions but also from Misratan allies, the Presidency Council, and civilians. Protests in multiple cities signal public dissatisfaction, while the international community and the UN have little leverage, having long backed elite-led governance rather than structural reform. The current ceasefire may hold, but prospects for a durable solution remain bleak.

Time for a New Approach to Stabilisation

The 2020 ceasefire promised a reset, yet reforms to Libya’s security and governance sectors have been absent. Short-term deals based on elite appeasement have hollowed institutions and empowered armed networks. As violence once again consumed Tripoli, it is clear that real political transition and accountability must replace transactional politics. As Chatham House contends, Libya risks repeating the destructive cycles of 2014 and 2020, unless it embarks on bold, inclusive reform efforts.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 Chechnya’s succession in question amid Kadyrov’s failing health: Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s health is reportedly deteriorating rapidly, prompting renewed speculation over succession. Despite Kadyrov’s request to step down, Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected the idea of Kadyrov’s son Adam taking his place, citing concerns over his inexperience and youth. Sources say Kadyrov is suffering from necrotising pancreatitis and requires ongoing dialysis, while resorting to pre-recorded appearances to conceal his condition. The Kremlin is said to favour Apti Alaudinov as his successor, while human rights observers warn that Chechnya’s authoritarian legacy—and abuses under Kadyrov—are now spreading across Russia and occupied Ukraine.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russia trying to ‘buy time,’ says Zelenskyy: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of attempting to "buy time" to prolong its war, following a two-hour phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The EU unveiled a new sanctions package targeting Russia’s shadow oil fleet and hybrid threats, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urging stronger US action if Moscow rejects a ceasefire. The UK imposed 100 additional sanctions across key Russian sectors, while Germany and Ukraine pressed the G7 for tougher oil price caps and a ceasefire without conditions. Meanwhile, Russia proposed pre-negotiation talks and denounced NATO’s Baltic Sea activity, as its military casualties near one million, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics