Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Russia expands in Africa

📰 Russia expands in Africa

Milei pulls from climate talks

Ross Crabtree
November 14, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, Germany has scheduled a snap election for February, while Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman issued a strong condemnation of Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Meanwhile, Russia is expanding its military presence in West Africa and seeks closer collaboration with Beijing to counter U.S. ‘containment’ efforts.

Today's main story examines the contrasting approaches of Beijing and Washington in their engagement with Latin America, a competition that will take centre stage at this week’s APEC summit in Peru.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 China’s tacit support for Russia requires ‘higher cost’, says European Commission: China should bear "a higher cost" for its support of Russia in the Ukraine conflict, stated Kaja Kallas, the EU’s incoming foreign policy chief. Speaking to MEPs in a three-hour hearing, the former Estonian prime minister underscored Ukraine's victory as a top priority—a more decisive stance than typically expressed by some EU leaders. "Ukraine’s victory is crucial for all of us; the battlefield situation remains challenging," Kallas emphasised. "We must persist every day, as long as it takes, with comprehensive military, financial, and humanitarian aid." On defence, Kallas called for a "drastic shift in mindset" within the EU, noting that it is "unacceptable" for Russia, Iran, and North Korea to outpace the Euro-Atlantic community in ammunition production.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇬🇶 🇲🇱 Russia expands its West African military footprint: Russia has recently sent up to 200 military instructors to Equatorial Guinea to safeguard its presidency, signalling a continued expansion into West Africa despite recent setbacks in Mali. These instructors are reportedly training elite guards in the oil-rich nation of 1.7 million people, where U.S. energy giants once invested heavily before reducing their presence. Russia's involvement reflects a trend of declining Western influence and rising Russian engagement across West and Central Africa, where Moscow has supported military regimes in exchange for economic benefits and strategic influence. In Equatorial Guinea, President Teodoro Obiang, 82, who has led since a 1979 coup, seeks Russian protection for his rule and his likely successor, his son Teodorin. The deployment follows a September visit where Obiang thanked Putin for sending "instructors," and Russian companies may soon enter the country’s oil and gas sectors.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Russian security council chief urges China to counter U.S. ‘containment’: Russian Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu urged China on Tuesday to work alongside Russia in countering what he described as U.S. "containment" efforts. Speaking with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, Shoigu highlighted the importance of opposing U.S. policies directed at isolating both Russia and China, emphasising their “comprehensive partnership” as a model for modern international cooperation. He noted that while the partnership isn’t a formal military alliance like those of the Cold War era, it surpasses typical state relations. Wang echoed Shoigu’s sentiments, underscoring the need for unity amid rising global challenges. Shoigu will also attend the Airshow China this week, where Russia's Su-57 fighter jet will be featured. Amid increased tensions, China and Russia continue to strengthen military ties, navigating complexities posed by North Korea’s growing involvement with Moscow.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump appoints Rubio as secretary of state, Hesgeth as defence secretary: President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as secretary of state, appointing a former critic turned strong supporter to lead U.S. diplomacy. Known for his hardline views on China, Cuba, and Iran, Rubio was previously considered as a potential running mate. As vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee and a Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, Rubio has championed a tougher stance on China and pushed for restrictions on TikTok due to concerns over data privacy, arguing that the Chinese government could demand access to user data. In another surprise, Trump selected Pete Hegseth, a National Guard veteran and Fox News host, as defence secretary. Hegseth has controversially criticised military diversity policies, questioned Gen. Charles Brown's appointment, and called for a leadership "purge" of those supporting "woke" policies.

5️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇦🇿 Argentina pulls representatives from COP29: Argentinian negotiators representing Javier Milei’s government have been instructed to leave the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, after just three days, raising doubts about Argentina’s commitment to the Paris Agreement. Over 80 Argentine delegates were attending the two-week summit focused on climate finance for the energy transition. Milei, Argentina's president, previously dismissed climate change as a “socialist lie” and had threatened to pull out of the Paris Agreement during his campaign, though he later reversed that stance. Argentina’s undersecretary for the environment, Ana Lamas, confirmed the withdrawal decision. This development, alongside U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed intent to exit the Paris Agreement, has fueled concerns about the accord’s stability, with UN Secretary General António Guterres warning that another U.S. exit could severely undermine global climate goals.

Major Story

🇵🇪 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 APEC SUMMIT CONVENES IN PERU: BEIJING AND WASHINGTON COMPETE FOR INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA

This week, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in Lima, Peru, at the APEC Leaders’ Summit, a major forum representing 21 economies and roughly 60% of global GDP. Biden’s trip, marking his second visit to Latin America, is seen as a final effort to strengthen diplomatic ties in a region where U.S. influence has waned amid China’s rising economic footprint.

While Biden's visit aims to reassure Latin American leaders of continued U.S. partnership, Xi’s arrival showcases China's concrete investments, most notably the $3.5 billion Chancay port project. This massive development by China’s state-owned COSCO highlights Beijing’s commitment to bolstering infrastructure in Latin America, a significant draw for Peruvians who see the port as a pathway to economic growth and skilled jobs. However, concerns persist, particularly among U.S. observers who worry about COSCO’s exclusive operational rights and potential security risks related to Chinese intelligence activities.

Beyond Peru, Xi’s visit signals China’s broader Belt and Road ambitions in Latin America, pairing economic diplomacy with strategic investments. In contrast, the Biden administration's Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity (APEP) remains largely aspirational. Limited U.S. infrastructure projects, such as DFC-backed port improvements in Ecuador, struggle to match China’s immediate, large-scale investments.

Xi’s initiatives at APEC may underscore Latin America’s preference for partnerships yielding swift, tangible benefits. As Biden’s tenure winds down, U.S. policymakers may need to rethink their approach to ensure that American economic engagement keeps pace with China’s regional influence.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇵🇸 🇱🇧 Genocide is being committed in Gaza, says Mohammed bin Salman: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has condemned Israel's war on Gaza as "genocide," marking the kingdom's first official use of this term. Speaking at a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh, he joined other Arab leaders in criticising Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon, urging an immediate ceasefire. "This summit continues the previous efforts in response to Israel's heinous aggressions against our Palestinian brothers and, by extension, the Republic of Lebanon," he stated. He further highlighted that Israel’s actions have left over 150,000 Palestinians dead, injured, or missing, most of them women and children. While once speculated to normalise ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia has maintained its stance, supporting a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany schedules February snap election: Germany will hold snap elections on February 23 following last week’s collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition, aiming to restore governmental stability. The date was a compromise between the conservative opposition, which sought a January election to avoid prolonged uncertainty, and Scholz, who preferred mid-March to allow additional preparation time. The February vote is conditional on a confidence vote set for December 16, which Scholz is expected to lose. If so, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, with elections required within 60 days. Steinmeier supported this timeline, calling it "realistic" and urging all political parties to work together responsibly during the transition to uphold Germany’s security and international commitments.