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📰 Russia recruiting Chinese mercenaries?

📰 Russia recruiting Chinese mercenaries?

and UK to hold Sudan talks

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 11, 2025

Sudan and Ethiopia dominate the headlines today: a fuel blockade has been placed on Tigray, while the Amhara insurgency intensifies amid Ethiopia’s growing political crisis. Meanwhile, the UK prepares to host high-level talks on the Sudan conflict, as Khartoum accuses the UAE of complicity in the unfolding genocide in Darfur during a hearing at the ICJ.

Our lead story examines the escalating U.S.–China trade war and the growing risk of strategic confrontation.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 Amhara insurgency escalates amid Ethiopia’s political turmoil: Ethiopia is grappling with a growing civil conflict between federal forces and Fano militias in the Amhara region, following the fragile peace from the Tigray war. Rooted in unresolved grievances over political marginalisation, disarmament, and perceived inequities in federal power, the Amhara uprising has rapidly evolved from scattered clashes in April 2023 to a full-scale insurgency. Despite a declared ceasefire in Tigray, the exclusion of Amhara from peace talks and controversial reforms like dismantling regional special forces have deepened distrust. The government’s heavy-handed response—military campaigns and a state of emergency—has failed to quell unrest, while its piecemeal peace overtures lack credibility. A sustainable solution requires inclusive dialogue, release of political prisoners, and structural reforms that ensure equitable representation and address long-standing territorial disputes, according to regional analysts.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia says Zelenskyy, Beijing warns against ‘irresponsible remarks’: China issued a warning on Thursday urging parties involved in the Ukraine conflict to avoid making “irresponsible comments,” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that Beijing was aware its nationals were being recruited by Russia. Zelensky stated that Ukraine had evidence of 155 Chinese individuals aiding Moscow’s invasion and alleged the capture of two Chinese soldiers in Donetsk. Without naming Ukraine, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed the claims, insisting China remains a neutral actor and a proponent of peace. Meanwhile, the Kremlin rejected Zelensky’s accusations, reaffirming that Beijing maintains a “balanced” position and is not being pulled into the war.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇮🇱 Turkiye, Israel hold ‘technical talks’ to avoid clashes in Syria: Turkish and Israeli officials have initiated talks aimed at easing tensions in Syria, where both nations have active military involvement. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December, Israel has escalated its operations, launching numerous airstrikes and deploying troops in the Golan Heights. Turkiye, a key supporter of the interim Syrian government, continues operations targeting ISIL (ISIS). Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed technical talks with Israel are underway, stressing the need for mechanisms to avoid clashes. Meanwhile, Israel has voiced strong opposition to any Turkish military bases in central Syria, with Prime Minister Netanyahu calling such plans a potential threat to Israeli security. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue to maintain regional stability.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 UAE complicit in genocide, Sudan tells the ICJ: At the International Court of Justice in The Hague on Thursday, Sudan accused the United Arab Emirates of aiding genocide in Darfur by arming the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan’s acting justice minister claimed that without the UAE’s logistical and military support, atrocities against the Masalit community—such as killings, rape, and forced displacement—would not be possible. Sudan requested provisional measures, including ordering the UAE to stop supporting groups inciting or committing genocide. The UAE dismissed the accusations as unfounded, arguing it had only provided humanitarian aid and challenging the court’s jurisdiction based on its 2005 reservation to Article Nine of the Genocide Convention. The court must now determine whether it can proceed with the case despite that reservation.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇨🇳 Head of British armed forces, trade minister visit Beijing: UK Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin visited Beijing this week in a low-profile trip, marking the first such visit by a British military head in nearly a decade. The Chinese defence ministry, not the UK, announced the meeting with General Liu Zhenli, China’s top military official, highlighting discussions on military ties and regional issues. UK officials confirmed the trip but provided no details, amid rising tensions linked to the U.S.-China trade war and Britain's ongoing tariff negotiations with Washington. Analysts say the visit aimed to ensure clear communication ahead of the UK's upcoming carrier strike group deployment to the Indo-Pacific.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 HOW TRUMP’S TRADE WAR WITH CHINA RISKS ESCALATION

President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend tariff hikes for most countries—while doubling down on China—signals the start of a dangerous spiral in U.S.-China relations. While markets reeled, Trump’s “Liberation Day” revealed a more serious geopolitical rupture, with both countries trading harsh rhetoric and retaliatory tariffs. After months of diplomacy and the illusion of potential compromise, Beijing now believes Washington aims to economically sabotage China, not negotiate.

Tit-for-Tat Retaliation

Trump hiked China’s tariffs to 125%, prompting Beijing to respond with sweeping duties on U.S. exports and penalties on American firms. The Chinese government framed its actions as defensive and accused the U.S. of weaponizing trade for global dominance. As China signals economic resilience and mobilizes domestic stimulus, Trump’s erratic policy risks economic instability at home and fractures with other allies.

From Economic to Strategic Confrontation

Both sides are now locked in a path toward decoupling, with consequences for global supply chains, trade routes, and diplomatic alignments. The emergence of smuggling, rerouted trade through Latin America, and pressure on third-party states foreshadow further escalation. If U.S. military planners use deteriorating relations as justification for buildup in the Indo-Pacific, the economic conflict may bleed into national security arenas.

A Flashpoint in Waiting

What was once a trade dispute is now a flashpoint for confrontation, especially around Taiwan or the South China Sea. With nationalism rising and diplomatic guardrails fading, the possibility of miscalculation grows. If unchecked, this economic cold war could spark a geopolitical crisis with far-reaching consequences.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇸🇩 UK to host Sudan conflict talks: The UK will host a high-level summit on 15 April aimed at uniting foreign ministers from nearly 20 countries and international organisations to forge a coordinated push toward peace in Sudan. Marking two years since the conflict began, the London conference—co-hosted by Germany and France—excludes both warring factions, focusing instead on building consensus among external actors to end impunity and enforce a ceasefire. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy may face pressure to challenge Gulf allies like the UAE, which Sudan accuses of arming the RSF. The event also draws attention to the humanitarian toll of the conflict, amid accusations of war crimes on both sides and growing scrutiny of international aid shortfalls.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Fuel embargo placed on Tigray: Tigray is facing a renewed siege—this time not by military force, but through a crippling fuel embargo that is collapsing essential services and worsening humanitarian suffering. Tigrayan authorities accuse Ethiopia’s federal government of deliberately blocking fuel supplies, with official correspondence showing deliveries have completely stopped for weeks. As hospitals, aid convoys, and small businesses grind to a halt, the region is plunged into crisis. This is not a bureaucratic mishap but a calculated act of economic warfare, designed to exert political pressure and weaken Tigray through deprivation—repeating tactics used during the height of the 2021–2022 blockade.