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📰 Russia seizes key town

📰 Russia seizes key town

and Denmark eyes Arctic

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 30, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In European and Middle Eastern developments, the EU considers lifting energy and transport sanctions on Syria, Ansarullah hands over more than 150 prisoners of war to the ICRC, and Italy signs a $10 billion industrial cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, today’s top story examines Trump and the Panama Canal, exploring its strategic implications and regional reactions.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia claims to have seized Velyka Novosilka: On January 26, Russian forces claimed to have fully seized Velyka Novosilka, though geolocated footage suggests they control 89% of the settlement. Fighting persists, with Ukrainian forces reportedly still active in the area, particularly in the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has been unusually vocal in promoting this seizure, likely to influence Western perceptions and bolster their narrative of progress. Despite this, Russian advances remain slow, and the presence of rivers near Velyka Novosilka could hinder further territorial gains. The situation raises questions about whether Russian forces will redeploy elements of their Eastern Military District (EMD) to other priority areas in Donetsk, potentially shaping their strategies for Spring and Summer 2025.

2️⃣ 🇩🇰 🇬🇱 🇺🇸 Denmark hikes Greenland defence spending: Denmark will invest 14.6 billion kroner ($2.05 billion) to enhance military capabilities in the Arctic, citing growing security concerns in the region. The plan includes funding for three Arctic naval vessels, two long-range surveillance drones, and expanded military training. Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the need to strengthen Denmark’s presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic, while Minister of Statehood and Foreign Affairs Vivian Motzfeldt highlighted Greenland’s evolving security landscape. The announcement follows renewed U.S. interest in Greenland and the EU’s firm stance that Greenland’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

3️⃣ 🇧🇩 Awami League seeks re-entry into Bangladesh’s post-Hasina political order: Less than three weeks after the student-led protests erupted on July 1, the government of Sheikh Hasina fell amid accusations of authoritarianism and brutality. The uprising, which ended on August 5 with Hasina fleeing to India, left at least 834 dead and over 20,000 injured, including women and children. The unrest, now known as the "July movement," marked the end of Hasina’s 16-year leadership and fractured her Awami League party. While senior leaders dismiss the crisis as an international conspiracy, grassroots members express frustration at the party’s top-down structure and denial of public grievances. Critics argue the party’s failure to acknowledge its heavy-handed actions has alienated supporters and left it struggling to rebuild. Meanwhile, the Awami League continues to frame the movement as a "terrorist uprising," deepening internal and public divides.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 Rwanda, France, Belgium embassies among those attacked by protestors in Kinshasa: Protesters in Kinshasa attacked multiple embassies, including those of France, Belgium, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, and the U.S., condemning international inaction over the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC. Demonstrators set fires, including at the French embassy, before police used tear gas to disperse the crowds. Meanwhile, M23 claimed control of Goma, with ongoing clashes near the airport, and UN peacekeepers have suffered heavy losses, including three South Africans killed in recent fighting. As tensions rise, the UN Secretary-General engaged with leaders of both the DRC and Rwanda, though Kigali continues to deny allegations of backing M23.

5️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 North Korea tests sea-to-surface cruise missiles: North Korea has tested sea-to-surface strategic guided cruise missiles, with state media KCNA reporting that the weapons accurately hit their targets. The test, overseen by Kim Jong Un, showcased the continued enhancement of the country's deterrence capabilities. The missiles traveled along elliptical and figure-eight orbits for 1,500 kilometers (930 miles), and the test posed no threat to neighboring nations' security. This marks the first missile test since President Trump’s return to office, with tensions rising between North Korea, the U.S., and South Korea, especially following joint military exercises. North Korea criticized the exercises, warning of harsh retaliation against the U.S. and Seoul’s actions that undermine its sovereignty and security.

Major Story

🇵🇦 🇺🇸 TRUMP AND THE PANAMA CANAL: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS AND REGIONAL REACTIONS

The Panama Canal, a crucial maritime link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, plays an integral role in global trade. Spanning just 51 miles, the canal allows ships to bypass the lengthy trip around South America's southern tip, significantly reducing shipping times and costs. Annually, over 13,000 vessels, comprising 5-6% of global trade, pass through, with the United States being the largest user.

The canal is vital for both Panama's economy, contributing about 4% of its GDP, and the U.S., handling roughly 40% of U.S. container traffic. Additionally, China, Chile, Japan, and South Korea are significant users.

Trump’s Call to Reclaim the Canal

President Trump has expressed the desire to regain U.S. control of the Panama Canal, a position tied to his broader aim of restoring American primacy in the Western Hemisphere. Trump has criticized Panama for charging high tolls and blamed former President Jimmy Carter for "foolishly" relinquishing control in the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties. Trump also raised concerns about Chinese influence, alleging that Beijing secretly controls the canal. While there’s no evidence of Chinese government control, a subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate CK Hutchison has managed two key Panamanian ports, raising suspicions among U.S. lawmakers about Chinese strategic interests. China’s growing presence in Latin America, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, has further fueled U.S. concerns. China is the top trading partner of South America, and its investments, including in Panama's infrastructure, have deepened ties with the region.

Panama’s Response and Regional Implications

Panama has firmly rejected Trump's calls to revisit ownership, reaffirming the sovereignty granted by the Torrijos-Carter Treaties. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino emphasized that all shipping fees are applied equally to vessels and denied Chinese control of the canal.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇸🇾 EU mulls dropping Syria’s energy, transport sanctions: The European Union is considering suspending sanctions on Syria related to energy and transport, although discussions on easing restrictions on financial transactions are still ongoing. EU foreign ministers are set to meet to discuss the issue, with the bloc's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, expressing hope for a political agreement. This shift in policy follows the ousting of Bashar al-Assad by insurgent forces, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has distanced itself from Al-Qaeda and pledged to involve all Syrians in a political process within four years. The EU sees transport and energy as vital to Syria's reconstruction, with easing sanctions potentially supporting stability and encouraging the return of refugees, although some measures, like those targeting the Assad regime, will remain in place.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 Ansarullah transfers over 150 prisoners of war to ICRC: The Houthis movement has released 153 prisoners of war to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in a significant gesture of goodwill. The detainees, including the sick, elderly, and wounded, were freed in Sanaa, following regular ICRC visits to ensure humane treatment. The Houthis' move is seen as a step towards building trust and revitalising peace talks, although the war, which has claimed over 150,000 lives and caused a severe humanitarian crisis, continues to affect millions.

3️⃣ 🇮🇹 🇸🇦 Italy, Saudi Arabia ink $10 billion industrial cooperation deal: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in al-Ula to discuss bilateral ties and regional developments. Meloni announced that Italy had signed cooperation and industrial agreements worth $10 billion with Saudi Arabia, marking a new phase in their strategic partnership. The agreements span infrastructure, energy, defence, tourism, and entertainment, reflecting a deepening collaboration between the two nations. Their discussions also addressed global conflicts, including Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, underscoring shared diplomatic interests.