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📰 Russia-Ukraine 'Easter truce' violated?

📰 Russia-Ukraine 'Easter truce' violated?

and World Bank under pressure

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 21, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, mass sentencing in Tunisia raises fresh concerns over authoritarianism, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun states that disarming Hizbollah must be approached under the right conditions.

Meanwhile, the Russia–Ukraine ‘Easter truce’ is marred by mutual accusations of violations. Our lead story explores Washington’s evolving approach to nuclear diplomacy with Saudi Arabia.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇻 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Nayib Bukele suggests U.S.-Venezuela prisoner swap: El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed a controversial prisoner exchange with Venezuela, offering to return 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. and held in Salvadoran prisons in exchange for political detainees imprisoned under President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s chief prosecutor dismissed the proposal as “neofascist,” accusing El Salvador of unlawfully detaining the Venezuelans and violating international human rights. The detainees were previously deported by the Trump administration under accusations of gang affiliations, which both Caracas and the detainees’ families deny. Bukele’s government, which is receiving $6 million from the U.S. to detain them, has yet to clarify the legal status of the prisoners.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine ‘Easter truce’ marked by violations: Russia and Ukraine have traded blame for breaching the temporary “Easter truce” announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Ukrainian officials claiming violations began the moment it was declared. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported over 2,000 ceasefire breaches on Sunday alone, though no missile strikes occurred that day. Moscow accused Kyiv of breaking the truce over 1,000 times and cited attacks in Russian border regions and Donetsk. While Russia framed the pause as a humanitarian gesture, Kyiv dismissed it as a public-relations move, suggesting either a lack of control over Russian forces or a lack of intent to halt hostilities. Despite fewer attacks, analysts note a complete cessation of fighting is difficult, and scepticism remains about the Kremlin’s commitment to any lasting peace.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan begins mass expulsion of Afghans: Pakistan has deported over 19,500 Afghans this month alone, as part of a broader crackdown that has seen more than 80,000 Afghans leave the country ahead of a 30 April deadline, according to the United Nations. Islamabad has intensified efforts to remove undocumented Afghans and those with expired temporary permits, citing national security concerns and pressure on public services. Taliban officials report that up to 800 families are being deported daily, with estimates suggesting as many as two million could be expelled in the coming months. During a visit to Kabul, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, who voiced strong concern over the mass deportations.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Former DRC president Kabila accused of M23 links: The Democratic Republic of the Congo has suspended former President Joseph Kabila’s political party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), and moved to seize his assets over allegations of high treason. Authorities accuse Kabila of supporting the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group, which has reignited conflict in the country’s eastern provinces and seized strategic cities including Goma and Bukavu. The DRC’s Interior and Justice Ministries allege Kabila is backing an alliance that includes M23 and preparing an insurrection. While no formal charges have been filed, prosecutors have been instructed to initiate proceedings. Kabila has not yet commented directly but is expected to speak soon. His party has condemned the move as unconstitutional.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 World Bank softens climate messaging amid political pressure from Washington: The World Bank has scaled back its public emphasis on climate action as it navigates the return of a Trump-led U.S. administration critical of international climate financing. While President Ajay Banga maintains that climate investments remain central—targeting 45% of annual lending by FY2025—he has shifted focus toward politically palatable themes like job creation and support for energy sources such as gas and nuclear. This pivot comes as Congress weighs Biden-era pledges, including $4 billion in funding for the Bank’s work in low-income nations. Internally, officials say the Bank’s climate policies remain intact but are being downplayed in messaging to avoid provoking Republican backlash. The World Bank now finds itself in a delicate balancing act: advancing a climate and development agenda while not alienating the U.S., its largest shareholder.

Major Story

🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 TRUMP TEAM’S NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY WITH SAUDI ARABIA SIDESTEPS NORMALISATION BAGGAGE

The Trump administration is preparing to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Saudi Arabia to support its civilian nuclear program—marking a notable shift from the Biden administration’s approach, which had tied nuclear cooperation to Saudi-Israel normalisation. The MOU, though non-binding, could lay the groundwork for U.S. technical support, contingent on Riyadh agreeing to a “123 Agreement” with standard nonproliferation safeguards.

This development reflects the Trump team’s willingness to engage Riyadh independently of its stance on Israel, sidestepping prior U.S. efforts to package normalisation, defence guarantees, and nuclear cooperation together. Biden’s team had insisted on linking Israeli recognition to broader strategic deliverables, including a political horizon for Palestinians. Trump’s advisers appear less constrained, as evidenced by recent outreach to both Iran and Hamas.

The nuclear agreement also raises questions about whether Riyadh will renew its push for formal U.S. security commitments. These demands—complex under Biden due to intra-administration divisions and congressional resistance—may now be revived in a friendlier climate. With Trump preparing for a May visit to Saudi Arabia, the groundwork is being laid for deeper U.S.–Gulf ties that move beyond the boundaries set by Biden-era diplomacy.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇳 Mass sentences in Tunisia deepen fears of one-man rule: A Tunisian court has sentenced opposition figures to lengthy prison terms in a mass trial widely condemned as politically motivated. Defendants include prominent critics of President Kais Saied, who has faced accusations of authoritarianism since dissolving parliament and seizing executive power in 2021. Rights groups say Saied has dismantled judicial independence, turning the courts into tools of repression. Over 20 of the 40 charged individuals have fled abroad. Defence lawyers and family members denounced the proceedings as a sham aimed at silencing dissent, with many calling the verdicts unjust and preordained.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 Hizbollah's disarmament requires right conditions, says Aoun: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun urged that Hizbollah’s weapons issue be addressed through calm, private dialogue rather than public discourse, emphasising that Lebanese citizens want peace, not war. Following a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi, Aoun stated that divisive matters must be tackled responsibly and that only the Lebanese Armed Forces are mandated to defend the country’s sovereignty. He reiterated the state’s eventual goal to enforce a monopoly on arms when conditions permit and stressed a reconciliatory approach to internal disagreements. The comments come amid renewed debate, sparked by Hizbollah Deputy Leader Naim Qassem, who vowed the group would not disarm and warned that such demands serve Israeli interests.