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📰 Russian advances grow

📰 Russian advances grow

and Trump’s tariff threat

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 26, 2024

Welcome back,

Today's developments highlight the Americas, where Uruguay has elected a new president and Suriname has unveiled a royalty scheme in anticipation of an oil boom. In South Asia, tensions escalate as Pakistan's capital enters lockdown amid widespread protests, while in the Middle East, reports suggest a Lebanon–Israel ceasefire deal may be imminent, though concerns of potential Israeli sabotage persist.

Our top story focuses on the risk of a trade war, after Trump's proposal for sweeping Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇬🇧 Russia fires record number of drones at Ukraine, UK affirms position against troop deployment: Russia launched a record 188 drones into Ukraine overnight, the highest in a single attack, Ukraine’s military reported Tuesday. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, confirmed ongoing strikes on the capital, with air defence systems working across multiple areas. Out of the drones launched, 76 were intercepted, but 96 went untracked due to suspected electronic warfare. Five drones reportedly veered toward Belarus. Meanwhile, Russian strikes on infrastructure caused severe power outages, leaving 70% of western Ternopil region without electricity, according to its governor. In related developments, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy reaffirmed Britain’s position against deploying troops in Ukraine, despite speculation in European media. Analysts also report Russia making its fastest territorial advances since early 2022, capturing 235 sq km in the past week. NATO’s 32 ambassadors are set to meet to discuss Moscow’s recent hypersonic missile test.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 Islamabad in lockdown over pro-Imran Khan protests: Thousands of supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have defied security barriers to march on Islamabad, demanding the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The capital has been under lockdown since Saturday, with the government invoking Article 245 to deploy the army in the Red Zone, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi confirmed. Over 4,000 demonstrators have been detained so far. Clashes between PTI members and security forces have claimed the lives of four paramilitary rangers and two police officers, leaving dozens injured, according to the Interior Ministry. Despite being imprisoned for over a year and facing more than 150 criminal charges, Khan remains a popular figure. PTI leaders insist these cases are politically motivated, fueling continued unrest and public outcry.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 Lebanon–Israel ceasefire deal reportedly imminent, risk of Israeli sabotage lingers: U.S. and French media sources reported on 25 November that a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel could be announced within hours, with Washington and Paris expected to unveil the deal the following day. Lebanon's Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab confirmed to Reuters that Israeli forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days of the announcement, under the oversight of a five-nation committee led by Washington. Bou Saab expressed optimism, noting no significant barriers to implementation, but cautioned against assuming certainty, given Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s history of blocking agreements. Reports suggest Hizbollah will relocate heavy weaponry north of the Litani River. While negotiations hinge on implementing UN Resolution 1701, disputes remain, particularly over sovereignty and mutual defense provisions. Meanwhile, Israeli bombardments across Lebanon persist as talks progress.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 Washington mulls UAE arms embargo over RSF support: Senator Chris Van Hollen has introduced legislation to block U.S. weapons sales to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) unless it is certified that the UAE is not supplying arms to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A joint resolution of disapproval was filed in the Senate, with Representative Sara Jacobs introducing a parallel resolution in the House. While unlikely to gain substantial congressional backing due to the UAE's status as a key regional ally, the initiative highlights concerns over the devastating humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Van Hollen stated, "The UAE is an important partner, but the U.S. cannot stand by as it contributes to Sudan's catastrophe." U.S. law permits Congress to review and block arms deals, though such resolutions rarely succeed against presidential vetoes. The UAE remains a major buyer of U.S. arms, with recent approvals including a $1.2 billion deal for advanced munitions.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇭🇺 G7 seeks unity on ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu, Hungary rebukes order: The Group of Seven (G7) nations bloc are deliberating a unified stance on the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) recent arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced on Monday. Speaking after a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, Tajani underscored the need for cohesion: "We need to be united on this." However, divisions remain apparent. The United States, a G7 member, strongly opposes the ICC's decision, with President Joe Biden labelling it “outrageous.” The ICC warrants, issued last Thursday, also target Israel’s former defence chief Yoav Gallant and Hamas leader Ibrahim Al-Masri for alleged war crimes during the Gaza conflict. Adding to the controversy, Hungary’s President Viktor Orban declared Netanyahu would be welcomed in Hungary, despite the country’s obligations under the ICC’s Rome Statute, sparking further debate within international circles.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 🇨🇳 TRADE WAR CONCERNS: TRUMP PROPOSES SWEEPING TARIFFS ON MEXICO, CANADA, AND CHINA

Donald Trump has announced plans to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China if re-elected. He stated on Truth Social that one of his first executive orders would introduce a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, alongside additional 10% tariffs on Chinese products. Trump justified these measures by citing drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, and illegal border crossings, accusing both countries of insufficient action.

The announcements rattled global markets, strengthening the dollar against the yuan, peso, and Canadian dollar, while stock markets dipped. Critics, including economists and trade experts, warned the tariffs would increase consumer costs and risk igniting another trade war, reminiscent of Trump’s first term.

Trump’s approach has drawn mixed reactions, with some seeing it as a bold move to bolster US manufacturing and foreign policy, while others point to potential economic strain and retaliatory measures from trading partners. The proposals also signal possible renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which Trump previously revised.

Despite claims that tariffs could strengthen domestic industries, experts argue they are a regressive tax burdening lower-income households. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost the average American household over $2,600 annually. Analysts suggest the tariffs reflect Trump’s strategy to exert pressure and negotiate from a position of strength, though the broader economic and diplomatic consequences remain uncertain.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇷 Suriname launches royalty scheme ahead of oil boon: Suriname’s President Chan Santokhi has unveiled a "royalties for everyone" program, aiming to share the wealth from the nation’s recently discovered offshore oil and gas reserves. The South American country, alongside its neighbor Guyana, anticipates substantial revenues from rich crude deposits. Experts predict Suriname, with a population of 600,000, could earn approximately $10 billion over the next two decades. Currently, nearly 20% of Surinamese citizens live in poverty, and the nation’s annual GDP stands at $3.4 billion. French oil giant Total has already committed $10.5 billion to develop a Surinamese offshore field capable of producing 220,000 barrels daily by 2028. Santokhi emphasized that the royalties program will ensure all citizens benefit directly, mirroring Guyana’s recent announcement of payouts to its adult population to redistribute oil wealth equitably.

2️⃣ 🇺🇾 Uruguay elects left-wing president, promises’ national dialogue’: Yamandú Orsi of the Broad Front alliance has been elected Uruguay’s next president, marking the return of centre-left leadership after five years of conservative rule. In Sunday’s run-off election, Orsi secured 49.8% of the vote, defeating Alvaro Delgado of the centre-right National Party, who garnered 45.9%. Orsi, a proponent of a "modern left," has vowed to address key national issues such as homelessness, poverty, and crime—concerns resonating strongly with Uruguayan voters. Although Uruguay's poverty rate is among the lowest in South America and has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, children remain disproportionately affected. In his victory speech, Orsi committed to fostering unity, declaring, “I will be the president who calls for national dialogue again and again.”