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📰 Russian drones hit NATO

📰 Russian drones hit NATO

China’s new South Sudan partnership

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 09, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today's dispatch covers major developments across Africa and the Middle East. In North Darfur—the Sudan war’s deadliest front—the largest drone attack since the conflict began was neutralised by the Sudanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, South Sudan and China have advanced their bilateral relations, and Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has won re-election by a landslide.

In the Middle East, the UN Security Council is convening to address Syria’s critical security situation. In the West Bank, an American-Turkish activist was killed by IDF troops, and extreme violence in Gaza persists.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 El Fasher withstands ‘largest drone attack’ since beginning of the war: Sudan’s army and allied forces announced on Sunday that they had successfully repelled the "largest drone attack" by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state. The RSF has besieged the city since April and launched multiple assaults in May, attempting to capture it but being pushed back by the army and its allies. Joint force leaders report that El Fasher has endured approximately 131 attacks by the RSF and allied militias. The conflict, including shelling by the RSF, has resulted in numerous civilian casualties, displaced over 500,000 people, and caused extensive destruction. Ahmed Hussein Mustafa, spokesperson for the joint forces in Darfur, told the Sudan Tribune that the army and joint forces successfully intercepted around 30 drones in the latest attack. Some of the drones were armed with 120mm and 85mm shells, while others were reconnaissance drones. Mustafa confirmed that 14 drones were destroyed by the joint forces, with the army downing 16 others. This development follows mounting pressure on the United Arab Emirates—reportedly aiding and abetting the RSF—an accusation that Abu Dhabi continues to deny.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇷🇴 🇱🇻 Russian drones ‘violate Romanian and Latvian airspace’: Two NATO members have reported airspace violations by Russian drones. One drone allegedly entered Romania during overnight strikes on Ukraine, while another crashed in eastern Latvia the day before. Romania's defence ministry stated that a drone crossed into its territory early Sunday as Moscow targeted civilian and port infrastructure along Ukraine's Danube River. F-16 fighter jets were deployed to monitor Romanian airspace, and residents in two eastern regions were alerted via text. No casualties or damage were reported. Meanwhile, Latvia’s defence minister, Andris Sprūds, confirmed that a Russian drone had crashed near Rezekne, likely straying from Belarus.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 American-Turkish activist killed by IDF, as West Bank death toll rises: The U.S. is seeking further information on the death of Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, 26, who was reportedly shot in the head by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) during an anti-settlement protest in the West Bank on Friday. Several Western allies, including the U.S., have recently imposed sanctions on individuals and entities linked to Israel’s settler movement, despite resistance from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Since October 7, at least 662 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces or settlers in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. This marks a significant increase compared to the 146 deaths in 2022, already a 20-year high. During the same period, 23 Israelis, including security personnel, have been killed in Palestinian attacks, Israeli officials report. Meanwhile, in the Gaza Strip, 61 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes over the last 48 hours, bringing the total death toll in Gaza to 40,939, according to local health officials. Ceasefire talks have hit a deadlock due to Netanyahu’s refusal to withdraw Israeli troops from the Gaza-Egypt border—a key demand from Hamas, despite his earlier agreement in July.

4️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇨🇳 South Sudan and China advance bilateral ties: Beijing and Juba have elevated their diplomatic ties to become ‘comprehensive strategic partners’ during President Salva Kiir's visit to China for the China-Africa summit. Kiir's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 9 compounded South Sudan’s long standing objective of securing access to global supply chains and diplomatic support amid internal and external pressures. South Sudan is navigating strained relations between Washington and Beijing while also maintaining ties with Russia, further shifting its focus eastward. The meeting highlighted plans to boost cooperation in key sectors such as infrastructure, trade, healthcare, and industrial development, critical to South Sudan's economic stability. Kiir expressed eagerness to implement the partnership's action plans, which are expected to bring significant benefits and support the country’s growth.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇳 UN Security Council holds meeting on Syria: Syria remains entrenched in its 14th year of civil war, with fighting persisting on multiple fronts and political efforts stalled. The Syrian Constitutional Committee has been inactive since June 2022, as Russia, an ally of Syria, has opposed Geneva as the venue due to Swiss sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. In a July 22 Council meeting, UN Special Envoy Geir O. Pedersen expressed concerns over the stagnation, noting growing frustration among regional and international actors who view the status quo as "dangerous and unsustainable." He emphasised the need for a comprehensive approach to address the multifaceted issues fueling the conflict. Hostilities in north-east Syria escalated in early August, particularly in Deir-ez-Zor governorate, where pro-government forces clashed with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While no territorial shifts occurred, infrastructure was targeted, heightening risks for civilians. Regional tensions have also surged due to the Israel-Hamas war, leading to increased violence in Syria. US forces have faced attacks from Iran-linked militias, prompting the US to bolster its military presence in the region to defend its interests and protect Israel.

Major Story

🇩🇿 ALGERIAN ELECTIONS: ABDELMADJID TEBBOUNE RE-ELECTED

Background

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, 78, has been re-elected with a decisive majority, according to the country's electoral authority. Tebboune, who first assumed office in 2019 after succeeding long-time president Abdelaziz Bouteflika, secured 94.65 percent of the vote, as reported by the National Independent Authority for Elections (ANIE). Of the 5.63 million registered voters—approximately 12.5% of Algeria’s population—5.32 million cast their ballots for Tebboune. His closest rivals were conservative Abdelaali Hassani Cherif, who garnered 3 percent of the vote, and socialist Youcef Aouchiche, who received 2.1 percent.

Democratic backsliding

Algeria's political landscape has long been overshadowed by military influence, a reality that continues under President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, despite hopes for increased democratic integrity. Many believed Algeria was slowly moving towards greater democracy, but concerns persist about the erosion of democratic values and human rights. These concerns, for some, make Tebboune's presidency appear not much different from the long tenure of his predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Young Algerians, in particular, seem disengaged from the electoral process, expressing doubts about whether their participation can bring about meaningful change. One commentator noted that young voters feel the country is not doing enough to inspire their involvement in the political process.

During the campaign season, repressive tactics, including the harassment and prosecution of opposition figures, media, and civil society activists, were widely reported by international organisations like Amnesty International. Critics labelled the election a "rubber stamp" exercise that merely preserves the status quo.

Despite these challenges, Tebboune and his challengers made efforts to encourage political participation, particularly targeting Algeria's youth, who represent a large portion of the population but face high unemployment and poverty rates.

Geopolitical Ramifications

Tebboune's re-election signals a continuation of Algeria's governing strategy, which has relied heavily on increased social spending driven by higher energy revenues since he assumed office in 2019. Under his leadership, Algeria has also boosted its military spending, engaging in a regional power struggle with neighbouring Morocco. Relations between the two countries remain highly strained, particularly due to Morocco's claim over Western Sahara and Algeria's support for the Polisario Front, an independence movement for the Sahrawi people. These dynamics are likely to remain central to Algeria’s foreign policy in the coming years.

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1️⃣ 🇵🇬 🇻🇦Pope Francis visits Papua New Guinea with humanitarian aid groups: Pope Francis has visited the remote town of Vanimo in Papua New Guinea's jungle—following a vibrant mass in the capital, Port Moresby—where he was greeted with enthusiastic cheers, traditional dancing, and music. Arriving in Vanimo via a Royal Australian Air Force C-130, the Pope had earlier urged church leaders to address the needs of marginalised communities in the country. He reaffirmed the Catholic Church's dedication to assisting those suffering from moral and physical wounds caused by "prejudice and superstition." His visit highlights ongoing concerns about the high rates of sexual violence in Papua New Guinea, which Human Rights Watch ranks among the most dangerous places for women and girls.