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A drone strike kills UN peacekeepers at a Sudan logistics base, Zelenskyy signals Ukraine could trade NATO ambitions for security guarantees, and Trump vows retaliation after an IS attack on US troops in Syria.

Our lead story turns to the Indo-Pacific, where Japan is accelerating rearmament as regional tensions sharpen.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 Rwanda, DR Congo peace deal in tatters: Washington  accused Rwanda of violating a US-brokered peace deal by supporting a renewed M23 rebel offensive in eastern Congo, warning it would act against “spoilers” destabilising the region. US Ambassador Mike Waltz told the UN that Rwandan forces were backing the advance and captured the strategic city of Uvira despite last week’s agreement committing Kigali to halt such support.

2️⃣ 🇭🇰 🇨🇳 Hong Kong opposition disappears as Democratic Party votes to dissolve: Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, long the city’s leading opposition force, voted to disband and enter liquidation, marking the effective end of organised liberal politics under years of intensifying pressure from Beijing. Party leaders said the decision followed sustained intimidation under the national security regime introduced after the 2019 protests, which has sidelined opposition parties, dismantled civil society, and criminalised dissent.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 Trump vows retaliation after IS attacks American troops in Syria: Syrian officials said the attacker who killed three Americans near Palmyra was a member of the country’s security forces due to be dismissed over suspected extremist views. Eleven other officers were detained as President Donald Trump vowed retaliation, warning that Islamic State militants are exploiting security gaps in eastern Syria.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy suggests Ukraine could drop NATO bid: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine could forgo its long-standing ambition to join NATO if the West offers legally binding security guarantees, acknowledging resistance from some alliance members. The proposal, discussed in Berlin with US envoys and European allies, marks a major concession by Kyiv as President Donald Trump presses for a negotiated settlement. Russia has welcomed the shift.

5️⃣ 🇨🇱 Kast wins Chile presidency on hardline security and migration platform: Ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast has been elected Chile’s next president, securing 58.16% of the vote against leftist candidate Jeannette Jara with nearly all ballots counted. Running on a law-and-order platform that blamed rising insecurity on undocumented migration, Kast pledged mass expulsions and tougher border controls, tapping into public anxiety despite Chile remaining one of Latin America’s safer countries. 

Major Story

🇯🇵 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 JAPAN BUILDS UP ITS MILITARY AMID INDO-PACIFIC TENSIONS

Japan is accelerating its defence buildup as threats sharpen around it and the rules-based order it relies on looks less secure. The 2022 National Security Strategy set a clear course: acquire more credible capabilities (including long-range precision strike), tighten integration with the United States, and expand security ties with other like-minded partners. Tokyo’s aim is not simply military strength for its own sake, but the protection of a regional system anchored in trade, connectivity, freedom of navigation, and international law—conditions a maritime trading state needs to prosper.

China, North Korea, and the Taiwan anxiety

Tokyo sees North Korea’s advancing missile and nuclear posture as an immediate danger, but it is China that dominates long-term planning. Japanese strategists fear Beijing is pushing beyond the “first island chain” and may ultimately seek to take Taiwan by force—an outcome that could leave Japan strategically exposed and the region increasingly China-centred. Friction around Taiwan rhetoric and crisis scenarios, and Beijing’s sharp reactions to Japanese signalling, reinforce Tokyo’s sense that it is operating in a more precarious neighbourhood than at any point in the post-war era.

The alliance dilemma and the push to diversify

Japan’s security has rested on the US alliance and forward-deployed US forces for decades, but that protection has constrained Japan’s strategic autonomy. With Washington’s “America first” impulses and a diminished commitment to post-1945 norms again evident under President Donald Trump, Tokyo is hedging: spending is rising towards 2% of GDP by 2027, “counterstrike” capabilities are being developed, and partnerships with Australia, European states, and regional actors are deepening. Still, Japan has no substitute for US extended deterrence, so the central task is dual: keep the alliance strong while building enough independent capacity—and diplomatic channels with China—to deter conflict without miscalculation.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Drone strike kills UN peacekeepers at Sudan logistics base: A drone attack struck a UN peacekeeping logistics base in Kadugli, Sudan, killing six peacekeepers and wounding eight others, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. Sudan’s military blamed the RSF for the strike, which Guterres warned could constitute a war crime under international law. The attack underscores the growing dangers facing UN personnel as fighting intensifies in Kordofan.

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