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📰 Rwanda-DRC agree on tentative peace

📰 Rwanda-DRC agree on tentative peace

and New Zealand freezes funding to Cook Islands

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 20, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez pushes back against NATO’s proposed 5% defence spending target, while India watches warily as Trump signals a reset with Pakistan during a White House welcome for General Munir. In the Pacific, New Zealand freezes aid to the Cook Islands over ties with China—just as its prime minister departs for Beijing.

Today’s main story focuses on the tentative peace agreement between Rwanda and the DRC.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇮🇷 Israel uses war with Iran as cover to maintain deadly escalations in Gaza and West Bank: One week after Israel bombed Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, sparking retaliatory strikes and killing hundreds, the humanitarian crisis in Palestine has worsened dramatically. While Israelis received shelter access and warnings, Palestinians were left unprotected as Israel imposed a full lockdown on the occupied West Bank and escalated airstrikes on Gaza. More than 400 Palestinians have been killed, many while waiting for aid. Israeli forces bombed Nasser Hospital and targeted refugee camps, aid centres, and residential areas. Communications in Gaza collapsed, and settler violence surged in the West Bank, with coordinated attacks on Palestinian homes and businesses. Meanwhile, Palestinian citizens of Israel reported being denied access to bomb shelters during Iran’s strikes. Rights groups warn that Israel is exploiting the Iran conflict to intensify attacks on Palestinians with impunity.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇳 Canadian intelligence accuses India of foreign interference: Canada’s intelligence agency has accused India of conducting foreign interference, even as Prime Ministers Mark Carney and Narendra Modi agreed to restore diplomatic ties during G7 talks in Alberta. A Canadian Security Intelligence Service report released Wednesday said India uses proxy agents in Canada to influence communities and political discourse, particularly concerning Sikh separatism and the Khalistan movement. While the report labels China as Canada’s top counterintelligence threat, it also cites interference from Russia, Iran, Pakistan—and now India. Tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi flared in 2023 after Canada linked Indian officials to the murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a claim India denies. Despite recent diplomacy, concerns persist over India’s alleged efforts to shape Canadian policy from within.

3️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇨🇳 🇨🇰 New Zealand freezes Cook Islands funding over unauthorised China deals: New Zealand has suspended NZ$18.2 million in aid to the Cook Islands after the latter signed multiple agreements with China without prior consultation, breaching long-standing diplomatic protocols. Wellington, the Cook Islands’ primary donor, cited a lack of transparency and concern over the deals’ scope as justification for halting further funding. Prime Minister Mark Brown downplayed the freeze, calling it a “pause,” but tensions rose as the withheld funds—intended for health, education, and tourism—surfaced in budget documents. The controversy coincides with Prime Minister Luxon’s visit to China, amplifying scrutiny of regional ties. While the agreements avoided explicit security clauses, they pledged Chinese investment and scholarships, triggering unease in New Zealand over Beijing’s growing Pacific influence and perceived disregard for established consultation norms.

4️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇸🇩 🇮🇷 🇹🇷 Eritrea emerges as key arms conduit for Sudanese army amid growing Iran-Turkey support: Eritrea has become a central hub for smuggling weapons to Sudan’s military (SAF), with recent shipments through Asmara including anti-aircraft systems, drones, and barrel bombs—violating UN arms embargoes. Media reports link this surge to a secret May meeting between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and former Sudanese intelligence chief Salah Gosh, a known arms broker now allied with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Turkish and Iranian drones are reportedly being flown in via Asmara, as Burhan’s forces move aircraft to Eritrea for protection from RSF airstrikes. Eritrean ports, naval assets, and training camps are increasingly supporting Sudan’s war effort. The alliance risks further inflaming tensions with Ethiopia, which claims rights to access Red Sea ports—particularly Assab, long viewed by Asmara as sovereign and non-negotiable.

5️⃣ 🇬🇭 🇦🇪 Billions in Ghanaian gold smuggled to UAE as tax policy backfires: Ghana is losing billions annually to gold smuggling, with most undeclared exports ending up in Dubai, according to a June 11 report by Swissaid. The NGO identified a $11.4 billion discrepancy over five years between Ghana’s official exports and gold imports recorded elsewhere—mainly the UAE. Much of the smuggled gold is routed through Togo, Mali, and Burkina Faso, exploiting porous borders and Dubai’s lax disclosure rules. A 2019 export tax caused formal reporting to collapse, fuelling illicit trade. Though the tax was cut in 2022 and scrapped in 2024, reforms remain sluggish. Experts warn that artisanal gold mining—vital for over 10 million Africans—is increasingly entangled with criminal networks and insurgencies, with Ghana’s experience reflecting a broader African trend of underreported exports and weak regulatory oversight.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 WASHINGTON TALKS YIELD TENTATIVE RWANDA-DR CONGO BREAKTHROUGH

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have signed a provisional agreement to de-escalate hostilities in eastern DRC, following three days of dialogue in Washington, DC. The United States facilitated the discussions, which focused on political, security, and economic concerns. The joint statement outlined commitments to disarmament, the integration of non-state armed groups, and the return of refugees and internally displaced persons.

M23 advances and humanitarian fallout

Eastern DRC has endured chronic instability for decades, with armed groups vying for control of resource-rich areas. The conflict escalated sharply in January when the M23 rebel group—widely believed to be supported by Rwanda—seized Goma and later captured Bukavu. Rwanda has repeatedly denied backing the rebels. The offensive has triggered profound humanitarian fallout. Thousands have been killed, and hundreds of thousands displaced since the beginning of the year. Amnesty International recently reported that M23 fighters had committed acts of torture and extrajudicial killings, warning that these may constitute war crimes under international law.

Widespread abuses and international concern

On Monday, UN human rights chief Volker Türk condemned abuses committed by M23, the Congolese army, and allied militias. His statement underscores the scale and complexity of the violence, which has seen multiple parties accused of violating international humanitarian law.

While the agreement marks a tentative step toward peace, it remains provisional. Analysts warn that its success depends on sustained international oversight and credible enforcement mechanisms to prevent further atrocities and displacement.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Comparing Iran and Israel's missile, drone, and deterrence capabilities: The Israel–Iran war is escalating fast, exposing a stark contrast in military strengths. Israel commands the skies with F-35 stealth jets and a multi-layered U.S.-funded air defence system—Iron Dome, Arrow-3, and David’s Sling—intercepting most incoming threats. In contrast, Iran, limited by sanctions and outdated aircraft, leans on its vast missile and drone arsenal. Tehran has unleashed hundreds of ballistic missiles and Shahed drones, including hypersonics, inflicting damage deep inside Israeli cities. While Iran holds numerical advantage in troop size, Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, unlike Iran, which officially adheres to a religious ban. As both sides trade blows and rhetoric, the spectre of regional escalation looms. With diplomacy stalled and casualties rising, the war is fast becoming a test of deterrence, endurance—and the limits of modern warfare.

2️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇪🇺 Spain Prime Minister Sánchez resists NATO 5 percent defence goal: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has rejected NATO’s proposed 5 percent GDP defence target, arguing it would strain Spain’s welfare system and green transition. In a letter to NATO chief Mark Rutte, Sánchez requested either a carve-out or more flexible language ahead of next week’s summit. Spain, which spends just 1.3 percent of GDP on defence, will only meet the current 2 percent target this year. While pledging not to obstruct consensus, Madrid warns a rapid increase could force off-the-shelf purchases and jeopardise domestic investment. The proposal—driven by U.S. President Trump—aims for 3.5 percent in military spending and 1.5 percent on related areas like cyber defence. In contrast, Sweden has pledged to hit the 5 percent mark by 2032 through large-scale borrowing.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 🇵🇰 Delhi cautious as Trump signals reset with Pakistan amid White House welcome for General Munir: U.S.–Pakistan relations appear to be warming rapidly after years of estrangement, marked by Donald Trump’s lavish welcome of Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. The general’s high-level access—including a White House lunch and Pentagon meetings—has sparked concern in India, especially given Pakistan’s historic ties to militancy. Trump praised Munir for halting the May conflict with India, a claim New Delhi firmly denies. Analysts suggest the visit reflects both strategic interests and Trump’s admiration for authoritarian figures. Pakistan, which retains ties with Iran, may also be seen as a potential interlocutor in the Israel–Iran crisis. At the same time, Islamabad is courting U.S. investment in critical minerals and crypto, offering Trump potential business and security incentives to revive the bilateral relationship.