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📰 Rwanda, DRC pledge peace

📰 Rwanda, DRC pledge peace

and U.S. weighs Somaliland recognition

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
March 20, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, a rights watchdog accuses Burkina Faso’s junta of involvement in massacres, the U.S. adopts a controversial stance on Bosnia’s political turmoil, and former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir makes a return to politics.

Our main story examines The Kra Canal Debate, weighing its potential as a strategic advantage against the risks of geopolitical instability.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Kigali, Kinshasa call for ceasefire in surprise joint statement: The presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda have pledged to implement an immediate ceasefire in eastern Congo following a surprise meeting in Qatar. Their commitment comes amid escalating violence and mounting international pressure, including recent European Union sanctions on Rwandan officials over alleged support for the M23 rebel group. Despite the ceasefire pledge, doubts remain over its enforcement, particularly as M23, which now controls significant mineral-rich territories, has yet to confirm its participation. With past ceasefire attempts collapsing and the conflict displacing over 700,000 people this year alone, analysts suggest that the situation could remain in a prolonged state of instability, favoring Rwanda’s strategic position despite increasing global condemnation.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇹🇿 🇧🇮 Beijing–Washington competition for critical minerals undermines sovereignty of African states: Burundi and Tanzania recently signed a deal with two Chinese state-owned firms to build a railway linking landlocked Burundi to Tanzanian ports, primarily for nickel exports. The $2 billion project reflects a broader trend of foreign-backed infrastructure investments across Africa, often framed as part of the global race for strategic minerals. The U.S. and China, for instance, are financing competing railways to transport Central African copper to ports on opposite coasts. However, beyond geopolitics, these projects largely mirror colonial-era infrastructure models—designed to extract resources for foreign markets rather than foster regional integration. Historically, African economies were structured around raw material exports to European powers, with transport networks prioritizing access to ports rather than intra-continental connectivity. The replication of this model risks perpetuating economic dependencies and limiting industrial development within Africa.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇴 U.S. weighs Somaliland recognition in exchange for Berbera military base: The United States has reportedly begun preliminary discussions on recognizing Somaliland in return for establishing a military base near Berbera, a key Red Sea port. If finalized, this deal could shift power dynamics in the Horn of Africa, granting the U.S. a strategic foothold in a region of increasing geopolitical competition. A base in Berbera would enhance Washington’s ability to monitor maritime routes, counter Houthi activity, and counterbalance China’s growing influence in Africa. While Somaliland sees potential recognition as a path to legitimacy and investment, the move could strain relations with Djibouti, which currently hosts a major U.S. military presence.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israeli support for subnational groups seeks to weaken Syria say analysts: Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Israel has taken strategic steps to undermine Syria’s political transition. The newfound freedom of Syrians to express solidarity with Palestine has alarmed Tel Aviv, which has responded by occupying additional Syrian territories, including parts of Mount Hermon and southern areas of the Golan Heights. These incursions, coupled with targeted airstrikes on military sites, signal Israel’s intent to destabilize Syria’s emerging government. Meanwhile, the Israeli government is accelerating settlement expansion in the occupied Golan Heights, reinforcing its long-term occupation. Simultaneously, Israel has exploited sectarian tensions, presenting itself as a protector of Druze communities while bombing Syrian military positions. It has also lobbied the U.S. to maintain Syria’s fragmentation, ensuring that no unified or sovereign state emerges. These interventions highlight Israel’s broader objective—preserving regional instability to prevent a strong, independent Syria from posing a security threat.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Ankara coy over Damascus–SDF rapport: Türkiye’s foreign minister, defense minister, and intelligence chief made an unannounced visit to Damascus last week, just days after Syria’s interim government struck a deal to integrate the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into its army. The agreement followed intense clashes last week and has raised concerns in Ankara, which views the SDF and its military wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), as linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). During talks with Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, Turkish officials sought clarification on how the agreement would be implemented and its impact on the ground. A Turkish Defense Ministry official reiterated that Türkiye's stance remains unchanged, emphasizing the need to end "terrorist activities," disarm militants, and expel foreign fighters from Syria.

Major Story

🇹🇭 🇨🇳 THE KRA CANAL DEBATE: STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE OR GEOPOLITICAL RISK?

For centuries, the idea of the Kra Canal has lingered as a transformative project that could reshape regional trade. First proposed in the 17th century and later revisited during colonial expansion, concerns over sovereignty and foreign influence kept the project from materializing. The latest revival in the 21st century, particularly under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has reignited debates over its feasibility and geopolitical consequences.

Geopolitical Stakes

If built, the Kra Canal would bypass the heavily congested Strait of Malacca, reducing shipping distances and costs. China views it as a solution to its “Malacca dilemma,” enhancing its energy security and naval reach. However, the United States, India, and Singapore oppose the project, fearing it would bolster China’s regional dominance and undermine Singapore’s role as a key transshipment hub.

Thailand’s Strategic Choice

Rather than pursuing the canal, Thailand has opted for a $28 billion land bridge project to connect the Gulf of Thailand to the Andaman Sea. This alternative balances economic benefits while avoiding environmental concerns and geopolitical tensions. With opposition from regional players and high construction costs, the Kra Canal remains an idea more than a reality.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso security focus implicated in massacres, says watchdog: Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged Burkina Faso’s military authorities to investigate and prosecute those responsible for the alleged massacre of dozens of civilians in Solenzo on March 10 and 11. Videos posted online appear to show security forces and allied militias executing members of the Fulani ethnic group, often accused of links to Islamist insurgents in the Sahel. HRW reported that at least 58 victims, including women and children, were bound and killed, though the true number may be higher. The massacre, reportedly carried out by junta-backed rapid intervention battalions and militias, was allegedly in retaliation for an earlier Islamist attack, highlighting ongoing abuses in the region’s fight against jihadist groups.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇦 U.S. takes divisive stand amid Bosnia’s political crisis: The latest crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina has exposed the ongoing fragility of the country’s post-war stability. The sentencing of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik to prison for defying the constitutional order escalated tensions, prompting him to sign separatist laws rejecting state authority in Republika Srpska. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a strong stance, bypassing the EU and coordinating with key allies to oppose Dodik’s actions. This approach signals a shift in U.S. policy, prioritizing direct engagement over multilateral diplomacy, while pressuring Europe to take a firmer stance. Moving forward, coordinated sanctions, NATO reinforcements, and stronger EU involvement will be crucial in countering separatist threats and maintaining Bosnia’s constitutional integrity.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 Ben Gvir reenters Israeli politics: Former Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is set to rejoin Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, months after leaving in protest over the Gaza ceasefire. His far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party and Netanyahu’s Likud Party announced the decision on Tuesday, shortly after Israel carried out its deadliest airstrikes on Gaza since January. Ben-Gvir, who resigned in January over humanitarian aid provisions to Gaza, had previously demanded a complete blockade, ostensibly to pressure Hamas into releasing hostages. Netanyahu defended the renewed military action, stating that Hamas had refused to extend the ceasefire or release more hostages, while Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepened under continued Israeli restrictions on aid.