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The launch of this publication will be the culmination of years of work. In particular, many, many, hours spent hunched over laptops everywhere from the UK House of Commons to Somaliland to the Australian Outback.

Despite our team spanning the globe, our aim is simple. We will bring you the most relevant geopolitical news each weekday in the most neutral and concise manner possible.

It is in that spirit of clarity and conciseness we come to this one-off pre-launch issue on the Sahel - where the winds of change are sweeping relentlessly.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Background

On May 9, Chad's state election commission announced interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby as the victor in the presidential election that commenced on May 6. Mahamat, the son of the long-serving Idris Déby who held the presidency for 30 years, secured over 60 percent of the vote. 

Despite recent coups and humanitarian crises throughout the Sahel—the strip of sub-Saharan Africa that connects Senegal to Sudan—Chad has stood out as an 'island of stability'. However, with Déby's main rival Prime Minister Succès Masra also claiming victory in the election, the spectre of political violence looms.

UN estimates from January 2023 paint a grim picture of the Sahel’s humanitarian crises, with approximately 2.7 million individuals displaced and 1.6 million children suffering from malnutrition. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has worsened the situation, exacerbating food insecurity in a region already grappling with the dual challenges of climate change and armed conflict, both of which pose significant threats to local agriculture.

The Sahel’s humanitarian crises are a symptom of a larger issue. Over the past 12 months, coups d'état have swept across the region, frequently accompanied by egregious human rights violations, facilitating the resurgence of jihadist movements.

A surge of coups d’etat

Amidst regional instability, countries throughout the Sahel are shifting away from traditional security partners—France and the U.S.—and are increasingly drawn to states that offer security support and investment without accompanying lectures on democracy, specifically Russia and China. African states now exhibit a dwindling tolerance for even perceived infractions, emphasising their desire for relationships built on mutual respect.

Anti-French sentiment, economic stagnation, and distrust in civilian leaders appear to be unifying factors in all six successful Sahelian coups since 2020, as Gabon (August 2023); Mali (2020, 2021), Burkina Faso (Jan. 2022, Sept. 2022), Guinea (2021), and Niger (July 2023) have all witnessed military juntas replacing civilian administrations. 

The departure of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from the West African multilateral group ECOWAS represents a strategic manoeuvre, a calculated effort to bolster junta solidarity, alliances, and power dynamics. This move risks exacerbating existing conflicts and legitimising coups, thereby posing significant challenges to regional peace and security, both within the ECOWAS sub-region and beyond. While some celebrate the diminishing influence of the U.S. and France and the foregrounding of African interests, the growing presence of Russia—and to some extent, China and Turkey—underscores the ongoing struggle for Sahelian states to disentangle themselves from the grasp of foreign realpolitik.

Changing allegiances

Over the past decade, the United States has poured nearly $1 billion into Niger, channelling funds to address a myriad of challenges, from delivering clean water and healthcare to countering the effects of climate change and bolstering the country's military against the backdrop of the world's highest concentration of jihadist attacks. 

However, as Cameron Hudson wrote in Foreign Policy in April 2024, ‘Washington’s development aid counted for little. In this new multipolar world, it seems that the United States, still arguably the richest and most powerful country in the world, needs Niger, one of the world’s poorest and weakest countries, more than Niger needs it.’

During his testimony before the U.S. Senate on March 16, General Michael Langley, commander of the U.S. military wing overseeing African interests, noted the overshadowing of U.S. influence by Russian disinformation on the continent.

On April 10, a Russian aircraft landed in Niamey, Niger, reportedly bringing military trainers and equipment, including an air defence system, signalling a new alliance between Russia and Niger's military. Subsequently, protesters in Niamey called for the withdrawal of American forces. Niger has been pivotal in U.S. operations in West and North Africa since the signing of a military pact in 2012. In response, Washington announced the withdrawal of over 1,000 military personnel from Niger, resulting in the closure of Base 201, a drone facility used in counterterrorism efforts against Sahel jihadist groups.

Moscow is expanding its influence into countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, leveraging Western policy missteps, escalating anti-European sentiment, and the longstanding failures of both international and local actors to address the root causes of regional instability. 

During the October 2022 coup in Burkina Faso, which saw Captain Ibrahim Traore ascend to power, the French embassy in Ouagadougou was attacked, and Russian flags appeared among protesters in the streets. Captain Traore declared, "[With] Russia… We already have a partnership, as you can see." In January 2024, Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, declared that Chad now considers Russia a "brother country."

Traore's junta has failed to effectively combat terrorism, leading to the displacement of two million people within Burkina Faso. Moreover, in February 2024, the Burkina Faso military allegedly executed at least 223 civilians, including 56 children, as reported by Human Rights Watch.

The Sahel's juntas may soon come to realise that groups such as Russia's PMC Wagner provide no better solutions for reclaiming regions lost to insurgents. In fact, their presence exacerbates the security situation for civilians. 

What next?

Once military juntas seize power, they often hesitate to relinquish it and show little inclination to restore democratic governance. Against the backdrop of Senegal’s challenges earlier this year—a traditionally stable democracy—and the expanding reach of jihadist movements into Nigeria and Benin, there's a genuine risk of chaos spreading. 

In today's era of heightened geopolitical competition, African nations find themselves empowered by the choice between Washington and Moscow, disrupting traditional power structures. If Washington fails to acknowledge this shifting landscape and genuinely engage with these countries as equals, the risk of diminishing both its values and interests on an increasingly strategic continent increases, entrenching regional instability and paving the way for potential proxy wars.

Tips, Suggestions & Credit

Diligently written by the brilliant Billy Robinson.

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