Hello and welcome back. 

Developments today include the Democratic Republic of Congo and M23 resuming talks in Qatar amid escalating violence in the east, South Korean President Lee securing a quiet Oval Office win through pragmatic flattery, and Taiwan’s referendum on reopening the Maanshan nuclear plant failing.

Our main story turns to the UN, where ten years after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), its last safeguard—the “snapback” mechanism for reimposing sanctions on Iran—is set to expire on 18 October.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India’s lithium discovery in Jammu and Kashmir threatens regional tensions: The village of Salal-Haimana in Jammu and Kashmir has been dubbed “Lithium Village” since India’s 2023 revelation of 5.9 million metric tons of reserves, the world’s fifth-largest. The find sparked hopes of economic transformation, yet two failed auctions exposed serious hurdles: fragile ecosystems, militia threats, disputed territory, and lithium’s complex clay deposits. In 2025, India and the U.S. signed a critical minerals pact under the “China plus one” strategy to diversify supply chains. But U.S. tariffs on India and sanctions over Russian oil purchases strain the partnership. With the reserves lying close to the Line of Control, Pakistani analysts warn mining could inflame disputes over sovereignty, security, and water from the Chenab River. For New Delhi, the prize is vital to its clean energy goals; the peril is regional destabilisation.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇨🇴 🇺🇸 Venezuela deploys troops to Colombia border as US warships move into Caribbean: Venezuela has deployed 15,000 troops, backed by drones, aircraft, and riverine patrols, to its border with Colombia in a new campaign against drug trafficking. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced the operation in Zulia and Táchira states, claiming Caracas had already seized 53 tonnes of narcotics this year, while urging Bogotá to step up its own efforts. The move comes amid escalating tensions with Washington, which accuses President Nicolás Maduro and Cabello of collaborating with the Cartel de los Soles and has placed multi-million-dollar bounties on their capture. In parallel, the US has reinforced its presence in the Caribbean, dispatching two additional warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, to join an amphibious squadron carrying thousands of Marines. Maduro condemned the build-up as an “imperialist threat” aimed at regime change.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Rights groups accuse Israel of war crimes over destruction in southern Lebanon: Amnesty International has accused the Israeli military of committing war crimes by systematically destroying civilian property across southern Lebanon. In a new briefing, the rights group documented how Israeli forces used bulldozers and explosives to devastate homes, mosques, cemeteries, parks, roads, and farmland in 24 municipalities. The report, covering Israel’s ground invasion from October 2024 to January 2025, estimates that more than 10,000 civilian structures were destroyed—much of it after a ceasefire with Hizbollah was already in place. Videos and satellite imagery show Israeli soldiers deliberately demolishing civilian sites, sometimes celebrating the devastation. Amnesty stressed that such acts, carried out after areas were under Israeli control, violated international humanitarian law by lacking imperative military necessity and must be investigated as war crimes.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇨🇳 Myanmar conflict fuels surge in Golden Triangle drug trade: Myanmar’s civil war has created fertile ground for transnational drug syndicates, allowing methamphetamine production in the Golden Triangle to expand dramatically. Armed groups and traffickers exploit weak governance and new infrastructure, including China’s Belt and Road projects, to channel drugs through both land and maritime routes across the Indo-Pacific. Seizures reveal shifting synthesis methods: producers briefly diversified chemical precursors in 2022 but have since returned to traditional processes, highlighting their adaptability and ability to conceal supply chains. Prices for meth have fallen even as purity remains stable, signalling increased capacity. These dynamics threaten regional security, while offering opportunities for collaboration between Asian producers and Mexican cartels unless coordinated counternarcotics strategies are urgently advanced.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Syrian Druze demand self-determination after Suwayda bloodshed: In mid-August, Syria’s Druze minority crossed a political red line in Suwayda with demands for self-determination, rejecting Damascus’s authority and, in some cases, waving Israeli flags. The dramatic turn followed July’s bloodshed, when clashes between Druze, Bedouin militias, and regime forces spiralled into massacres that killed more than 1,000 people—over 500 of them Druze civilians—and displaced nearly 200,000. For many Druze, the lesson was stark: the state would not defend them. Once known for neutrality, the community now rallies around cleric Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who has demanded autonomy and endorsed a Druze “National Guard.” Critics warn Israel may exploit this shift to fracture Syria further, while others argue survival—not ideology—drives the pivot. Analysts caution that rising sectarianism and talk of humanitarian corridors risk deepening fragmentation, weakening Syria, and serving Israeli strategic aims.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 THE COMING SNAPBACK: EUROPE, IRAN, AND THE UNRAVELING OF THE NUCLEAR DEAL

Ten years after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), its last remaining safeguard—the “snapback” mechanism for reimposing UN sanctions—faces expiry on 18 October. With the accord hollowed out, the European trio of France, Germany, and the UK (E3) appear poised to trigger snapback unless Tehran restores restrictions and monitoring of its nuclear programme. Contacts are ongoing, but momentum is clearly moving toward confrontation.

How Snapback Works

UN Security Council Resolution 2231 created a unique enforcement tool: any JCPOA participant can unilaterally notify the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran, thereby reinstating six pre-2015 sanctions resolutions. Unlike normal Council procedures, this process is almost impossible to block, effectively reversing the default toward sanctions unless consensus emerges to extend relief.

Collapse of the Bargain

The JCPOA’s core exchange—sanctions relief for nuclear restraint—began crumbling after Washington’s 2018 withdrawal and “maximum pressure” campaign. Iran gradually breached limits, while attempts at revival under the Biden administration collapsed by 2022. Since then, UN restrictions on arms and missiles have expired, Iran has accelerated enrichment, and after Israel’s June 2025 strikes on nuclear sites, Tehran cut off IAEA inspections entirely. The E3 argue they exhausted diplomacy; with no monitoring framework left, snapback is their only leverage.

The Stakes of Snapback

The E3 offer Tehran a narrow reprieve: a six-month delay if Iran restores IAEA oversight, clarifies the fate of its near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile, and resumes negotiations with Washington. Yet Iran rejects the Europeans’ standing to act, insisting they forfeited JCPOA participant status by failing to shield it from U.S. sanctions. Tehran is unlikely to yield its uranium stockpile—now one of its few bargaining chips—merely for a temporary pause. Officials have even floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), though more limited steps such as ending safeguards agreements may be more probable.

Reimposed UN sanctions would again ban arms sales, restrict ballistic missile activity, and blacklist Iranian individuals, companies, and financial entities. While U.S. unilateral measures already bite harder, UN-level sanctions carry symbolic weight and legal permanence, difficult to reverse without consensus. Europe, hardening in its stance toward Tehran, would likely enforce them rigorously. For Iran, already battered by inflation and sanctions, snapback would deepen economic malaise while further isolating it diplomatically.

Russia, China, and the Wider Game

Moscow and Beijing contest the E3’s authority to act and may obstruct implementation, for instance by blocking the reconstitution of sanctions-monitoring bodies. Yet even they may balk if Iran escalates by quitting the NPT. The looming clash underscores a deeper truth that without renewed U.S.–Iran engagement, snapback will not resolve the nuclear impasse but entrench it, risking escalation in a region already scarred by war.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 DRC and M23 resume Qatar talks as violence escalates in eastern provinces: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the M23 rebel movement have restarted talks in Doha, despite a July ceasefire agreement already faltering amid fresh clashes in the country’s mineral-rich east. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari confirmed that both delegations are reviewing the stalled truce, with discussions focused on monitoring mechanisms, prisoner exchanges, and renewed international involvement, including from the United States and the Red Cross. The Qatar-led initiative follows a Washington-brokered deal between Rwanda—M23’s alleged backer—and Kinshasa, which the rebels rejected, insisting on direct negotiations. Despite multiple agreements, violence in North and South Kivu has intensified, displacing over two million people this year. Human Rights Watch has accused M23 of mass killings, while UN experts say Rwanda has played a decisive role—allegations Kigali denies.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 Pragmatic flattery secures President Lee a quiet Oval Office win: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung entered the Oval Office under a cloud of uncertainty: North Korean hostility, domestic unease over an ambiguous trade deal, and Donald Trump’s cryptic talk of a “Purge or Revolution” in Seoul. Yet Lee walked away unscathed, even drawing warmth from Trump through lighthearted banter on golf and Trump Towers. His success rested on a strategy of calculated flattery and pragmatic alignment with Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, framing Seoul as an indispensable partner. Casting himself as Trump’s “pacemaker” to his “peacemaker,” Lee cleverly positioned South Korea within U.S.–North Korea diplomacy. Unlike his more restrained predecessors, Lee’s populist instincts and readiness to ingratiate himself ensured a cordial meeting—a modest but meaningful diplomatic victory for Seoul.

3️⃣ 🇹🇼 Taiwan referendum on reopening Maanshan nuclear plant fails: Taiwan’s referendum on restarting the Maanshan nuclear power plant failed after falling short of the legal threshold, despite a strong majority voting in favour. Backed by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party, the plebiscite asked whether the plant should reopen if deemed safe. Around 4.3 million supported the proposal versus 1.5 million opposed, but at least 5 million votes were required for validity. The plant, located in Pingtung, was shut in May as part of a government shift toward renewables and LNG. President Lai Ching-te acknowledged public demand for energy diversity but cited ongoing safety and waste concerns in quake-prone Taiwan. He added that advanced nuclear power could be reconsidered if technology improves and societal acceptance grows.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

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The World: A Brief Introduction

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