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📰 Sinaloa state in crisis

📰 Sinaloa state in crisis

and Merz, Macron kill EU flagship supply chain oversight law

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 01, 2025

Today, cartel violence surges in Mexico’s Sinaloa state. In Europe, Germany proposes a joint ‘cyber dome’ with Israel, even as Israel intensifies evacuation orders and airstrikes in Gaza. Meanwhile, tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific as Canberra accuses Beijing of falsely claiming credit for regional development initiatives.

In our lead story, we explain why striking Iran has accelerated, not curbed, the nuclear threat.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 Merz and Macron dismantle EU supply chain rules, signalling erosion of sustainability and human rights: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron have joined forces to water down the EU’s flagship supply chain oversight law, originally intended to combat environmental abuse and labour violations. Politico reports that their behind-the-scenes negotiations dramatically narrowed the law’s scope, applying it only to companies with over 5,000 employees and €1.5 billion in turnover—leaving fewer than 1,000 firms affected. Once champions of ethical business standards, Paris and Berlin now prioritise regulatory simplification and economic competitiveness. Critics warn the revised directive is toothless, with minimal incentives for compliance. Macron previously called for shelving the law entirely, echoing Merz’s demand for repeal. Observers say the Franco-German pivot signals a shift toward pro-corporate policymaking in Brussels, eroding earlier commitments to sustainability and human rights.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇨🇳 Canberra accuses China of 'taking undue credit' for Pacific development projects: China is expanding its Pacific footprint by publicly branding Asian Development Bank-funded infrastructure as Chinese-led, despite funding coming largely from countries like Australia and Japan. In Bougainville, a Papua New Guinea autonomous region, a runway upgrade financed by the ADB features only the Chinese state-owned firm CRCC in local announcements and at inauguration events—prompting frustration from Australian officials. Minister Pat Conroy said such branding misrepresents development ownership and reinforces Beijing’s influence in a strategically vital region. While Bougainville’s leadership downplays the concerns, citing limited options from traditional donors, Australia remains cautious. The U.S. and Australia fear China may gain a geopolitical edge should Bougainville break away, which the recent ‘Melanesian Agreement’ suggests it may. Tensions are heightened by the region’s history with Australia and rising Chinese engagement in Pacific security and infrastructure.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇭🇹 🇵🇸 🇸🇴 UN report finds record violations against children in Haiti, Palestine, Somalia and beyond: The UN’s latest Children in Armed Conflict report reveals a record 41,370 grave violations against children in 2024—marking the third straight year of rising violence. The Gaza Strip, Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Nigeria, and Somalia were among the worst-affected regions. According to Crisis Group analysts Cristal Downing and Floor Keuleers, the findings highlight not only the direct toll of war on children’s lives, but also the devastation for those who survive. Beyond deaths and injuries—often sustained during attacks on schools, hospitals, and homes—children face lasting hardship through the collapse of health systems, displacement, and disrupted education. The report paints a stark picture of how modern conflict systematically dismantles the foundations needed for childhood, leaving entire generations scarred by violence, trauma, and deprivation.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 Trump signs executive order to end U.S. sanctions on Syria: President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending the decades-long US sanctions regime on Syria, following a surprise announcement in Riyadh and his meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The move, framed as a step toward regional peace and reconstruction, lifts restrictions on Syria’s economy but preserves sanctions on former President Bashar al-Assad, his allies, and designated terrorist groups. The White House described it as supporting Syria’s path to “peace, unity and stability.” Sharaa, once on a U.S. wanted list, praised the decision as a gateway to recovery. Sanctions on Syria had intensified over 50 years, peaking under the Caesar Act. Officials say future relief depends on progress under Sharaa’s leadership, with Washington and Israel closely monitoring whether Syria remains ‘non-hostile’ to their regional interests.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 Foreign Minister Sa’ar pursues Syria and Lebanon ties as Israeli occupation deepens: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced that Israel seeks formal diplomatic ties with Syria and Lebanon, part of efforts to expand the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords. But the reality undermines the rhetoric: Israel occupies parts of both countries — Syria’s Golan Heights, and Lebanon's Shebaa Farms — and has intensified cross-border airstrikes in recent years. Trust in Israel among Syrian and Lebanese civil societies is minimal, as Israeli forces have operated with aggressive impunity in both nations’ sovereign territory. As with earlier accords, these overtures appear transactional—offering Israel access to regional markets while excluding Palestinians from the process and undermining their claims to sovereignty. Sa’ar confirmed that Israel will not negotiate the status of the Golan. Trump officials say Syria may soon join the accords.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 THE PARADOX OF FORCE: WHY STRIKES ON IRAN ONLY ACCELERATES ITS NUCLEAR THREAT

Following President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Washington was quick to declare victory, boasting that Iran’s weapons capability had been "obliterated." Yet experts remain sceptical. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) notes that visual damage tells little about what lies beneath fortified bunkers. Key enrichment sites were untouched, and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium may have survived.

More concerning, however, is the collapse of the transparency regime that had previously kept Iran’s programme under strict IAEA oversight. The attack has undermined decades of diplomacy and non-proliferation work, with Iran now moving toward total disengagement from international nuclear commitments.

From Transparency to Retaliation

For decades, Iran’s nuclear programme operated under international surveillance. As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran allowed inspectors access to enrichment facilities, research reactors, and fuel plants. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it further reduced enrichment and accepted intrusive inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, however, began a downward spiral. Iran slowly scaled back compliance. Now, with its nuclear facilities bombed, Iran has halted all cooperation with the IAEA and its parliament is preparing legislation to exit the NPT altogether. If Iran withdraws, it would mark the treaty’s most serious violation since North Korea’s departure in 2003—potentially sparking a regional arms race and undoing decades of global restraint.

Diplomacy Must Return

Trump’s attack sent a chilling message: even states under IAEA safeguards can be bombed. This precedent risks encouraging proliferation, not preventing it. Iran’s opaque future now poses a graver threat than the programme that once operated under tight scrutiny. The strikes have also shattered Tehran’s confidence in conventional deterrence, with policymakers increasingly arguing that only a nuclear deterrent can compensate for its failure.

Rebuilding trust will be profoundly difficult. The U.S. must abandon unrealistic demands and return to a credible, monitored enrichment deal, writes international security expert, Olamide Samuel. Iran has shown it may be open to limits if treated as a partner, not a pariah. The future of non-proliferation depends on whether Washington can correct course—and whether Tehran believes it’s worth coming back to the table.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Rising cartel violence grips Mexico's Sinaloa state: Mexican authorities discovered 20 bodies in Sinaloa, including four decapitated victims hung from a bridge. A note linked the killings to La Mayiza, a faction led by the son of El Mayo Zambada, amid intensifying warfare against El Chapo’s sons, Los Chapitos. Nearly 3,000 people have been killed or disappeared since fighting erupted after Zambada’s arrest in Texas. US officials warn Los Chapitos may now be allying with the Jalisco New Generation cartel, potentially reshaping Mexico’s criminal landscape. Under US pressure, Mexico has ramped up fentanyl crackdowns, though cartel violence remains rampant. Washington has designated the cartels as terrorist groups and sanctioned Mexican banks accused of laundering drug profits.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 Germany proposes joint ‘cyber dome’ with Israel: Despite Israel’s ongoing genocidal war in Gaza, Germany plans to launch a joint cyber research centre with Israel and deepen cooperation between their intelligence and security agencies, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced during a visit to Israel. Speaking to Bild, Dobrindt said civil defence upgrades were essential alongside military efforts to meet today’s security demands. He unveiled a five-point plan for a “Cyber Dome” to bolster Germany’s digital resilience, mirroring aspects of Israel’s cyber strategy. Separately, Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder urged the federal government to procure 2,000 interceptor missiles and develop an “Iron Dome”-style air defence system to protect against short-range threats. Both proposals reflect growing German interest in Israeli security models as Berlin seeks to modernise its defence posture in response to perceived evolving regional and global threats.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇸 Israel escalates Gaza evacuation orders and airstrikes as ceasefire talks resume in Washington: Israel has ordered fresh evacuations from Gaza City and launched strikes that killed around 60 Palestinian civilians, including a journalist. The escalation came as Israeli minister Ron Dermer arrived in Washington for ceasefire talks, days after President Trump urged a deal to release remaining hostages. While Israel claims the offensive aims to pressure Hamas and secure hostages' release, most are believed dead. Evacuation orders now cover 80% of Gaza. Additional strikes targeted schools and a coastal café, despite IDF claims of mitigating civilian harm. Analysts suggest the offensive is partly intended to create leverage in future talks.