Geopolitics Daily
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🌏 South China Sea arrangement reached

🌏 South China Sea arrangement reached

and Biden drops out

Ross Crabtree
July 22, 2024

Welcome back to another week in geopolitics,

The big news of the last 24 hours is that President Joe Biden has dropped his bid for re-election following pressure from senior Democratic politicians, and numerous gaffes both on the campaign trail and at the recent NATO summit in Washington DC.

Over the weekend Turkey also signalled its willingness to build a naval base in Northern Cyprus - 50 years after its invasion of the island in the Eastern Mediterranean.

More below 👇

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇺🇸 United States: President Joe Biden has ended his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate for the upcoming election. This unexpected move follows a turbulent period marked by Biden's shaky debate performance against Trump and intense scrutiny from his own party. Harris, expressing her gratitude, vowed to unite the country and win against Trump, with key figures like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton showing their support.

2️⃣🇾🇪 Yemen: The Houthis launched multiple ballistic missiles at the Israeli city of Eilat, but Israel's military intercepted them before they crossed into its territory. This followed an Israeli airstrike on Houthi targets near Yemen's Hodeidah port, resulting in six deaths and 80 injuries. The escalating conflict raises fears of a broader regional war, with Israel responding to "hundreds of attacks" and increasing tensions with Iranian-backed groups.

3️⃣🇹🇷 Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Turkey's readiness to build a naval base in Northern Cyprus if necessary, amidst rising tensions with Greece. Marking 50 years since Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, Erdogan accused Greece of planning its own naval base on the divided island. Erdogan reiterated his rejection of the UN-backed federal model for reunification, emphasizing the need for equal terms in any future negotiations.

4️⃣🇮🇱 Israel: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel's settlement policy in occupied Palestinian territories breaches international law, violating the Fourth Geneva Convention. The ICJ called for an immediate halt to settlement construction, declaring Israel's presence "illegal" and its use of natural resources inconsistent with international law. Israel did not participate in the hearings, and President Netanyahu dismissed the ruling, asserting historical and legal rights to the lands.

5️⃣🇵🇦 Panama: The government plans to start deportation flights for migrants who crossed the Darien jungle within two to three months, according to chief of migration Roger Mojica. These flights, funded by the United States under a recent agreement, aim to address the influx of migrants seeking better opportunities. President Jose Raul Mulino is collaborating with the U.S. to control migration through the Darien Gap, which saw a record 500,000 migrants last year.

Major Story

Beijing and Manila have reached a “provisional arrangement” to ease tensions over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. This agreement will allow the Philippines to resupply its military outpost on the rusting Sierra Madre warship, a key point of contention in the region. The deal follows a series of consultations between diplomats from both sides and aims to defuse a year-long spiral of violent encounters. In the most severe incident in June, Chinese coast guard forces rammed and boarded Philippine vessels, confiscating weapons and threatening sailors, which raised concerns of a potential conflict involving the US, a Philippine ally.

China's foreign ministry confirmed its agreement to permit humanitarian resupply missions but reiterated its sovereignty claim over the reef and demanded the removal of the Sierra Madre. Beijing also insisted on conducting on-site verifications and supervising each mission. The reef, within the Philippine exclusive economic zone, is claimed by China as part of its extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea, despite a 2016 arbitration ruling rejecting these claims. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs stated that the provisional agreement would not affect the standing positions of either country regarding the South China Sea.

Observers remain skeptical about the long-term success of the arrangement. Historically, China has accused the Philippines of violating previous “gentleman’s agreements” regarding the Sierra Madre, continuing to obstruct resupply missions with aggressive tactics. The recent agreement stipulates conditions for basic supply provisions, such as food and water, while barring materials to stabilize the ship and mandating prior notification and inspection by China. The deal represents a cautious step towards reducing hostilities but underscores the ongoing complexities and fragility in Sino-Philippine relations over the contested maritime region.

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Other News

1️⃣🇹🇼 Taiwan: Taiwan has commenced its annual Han Kuang war games, focusing on realistic combat scenarios to repel a potential Chinese attack. The exercises include unscripted drills, intensified nighttime operations, and contingency plans for disrupted command lines. Amid China's ongoing military pressure and almost daily air force missions, Taiwan's five-day drills will also feature live fire exercises on outlying islands and civil defense evacuations in major cities.

2️⃣🌍 Global: Geopolitical tensions have overtaken inflation as the primary concern for sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing $22 trillion in assets, according to an Invesco survey. Issues like the U.S.-China trade battles and Russia's invasion of Ukraine are now top worries for 83% of respondents. Long-term, climate change also ranks high, while the appeal of gold has surged due to fears of reserve weaponization. Emerging markets, particularly India, are seen as potential beneficiaries of the increasing global multipolarity.