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📰 South Korea considers arming Ukraine

📰 South Korea considers arming Ukraine

and Trump claims foreign interference

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 23, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

Leading today’s headlines is Africa, where the latest Ibrahim Index reveals the impact of an eroding international order on the continent’s geopolitical stability and governance. The report highlights increasing authoritarianism and declining democratic standards, with serious implications for Africa's future. In Sudan, the ongoing civil war continues to displace tens of thousands, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇻🇳 Vietnam appoints former military general as new president: Vietnam’s National Assembly elected military general Luong Cuong as its new president on Monday, marking the fourth change in the largely ceremonial role within 18 months. Cuong, 67, succeeds To Lam, who remained president after being appointed general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in August—a position considered the most powerful in Vietnam. The presidency primarily involves representing the nation in meetings with foreign leaders. In his acceptance speech, Cuong pledged to pursue foreign policies centred on independence and peace while promoting Vietnam as a “trusted partner” and responsible global player. With over four decades of service in the Vietnamese military, Cuong has been a Politburo member since 2021. His appointment follows months of political instability and the death of former party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who had led the country since 2011.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇺🇦 🇰🇵 South Korea to consider supporting Ukraine war effort after reports of North Korean troop presence: South Korea is weighing the possibility of directly supplying arms to Ukraine amid growing evidence of North Korean military involvement in Russia’s war. Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea had sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia’s Far East for training, with plans to deploy a total of 12,000 troops in four brigades. A senior official in President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office stated on Tuesday that Seoul could consider providing both defensive and lethal weapons to Ukraine, depending on the situation’s developments. This marks South Korea’s most assertive stance on arming Ukraine thus far. The move comes after an emergency meeting of South Korea’s national security council, held in response to the strengthening military ties between North Korea and Russia. South Korea has previously supported Ukraine with humanitarian aid and aligned with Western economic sanctions against Moscow.

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 Subnational Ethiopian authority suspends participation in National Dialogue process: The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a regional political authority in Ethiopia's Somali region, has announced its withdrawal from the Ethiopian National Dialogue process. In a statement, the ONLF criticised the ruling party in the Somali region for undermining the process by unilaterally selecting participants, violating agreements with political parties, and sidelining diverse perspectives. This exclusionary approach, the ONLF argued, contradicts the goal of a National Dialogue, which aims to include all stakeholders in addressing the root causes of conflict. They further noted that key political actors from Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray remain absent amid ongoing conflicts, rendering the dialogue one-sided and ineffective for achieving genuine peace. The ONLF reaffirmed its commitment to an inclusive and transparent dialogue but will not participate until such a process is reinstated. This development coincides with escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia over a controversial Somaliland recognition MoU, drawing Egypt's involvement.

4️⃣ 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 Refugees pour into Chad as Sudan’s humanitarian crisis deepens: Conditions in Chad’s refugee camps are worsening as violence and food insecurity in Sudan force more people to cross the border. In early October alone, approximately 25,000 Sudanese refugees—mostly women and children—arrived in eastern Chad, which now hosts over 680,000 Sudanese refugees – the largest number globally. At the Farchana camp, refugees relocated from the Adré border camp describe desperation as they struggle with severe overcrowding and lack of resources. Hatim Abdallah El-Fadil, the camp’s leader, reports that some residents resort to begging or selling possessions to survive. The lack of education for children and limited work opportunities compound the crisis. Meanwhile, the ongoing war between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to escalate, with both sides accused of war crimes, leaving thousands dead and millions facing famine. Refugees, seeing no prospects in Chad, hope to find safety and opportunity elsewhere.

5️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia, Iran plan joint military exercises: On 22 October, Iranian Navy Rear Admiral Shahram Irani announced that Iran and Saudi Arabia are planning joint naval exercises in the Red Sea, signalling growing military cooperation between the two nations. According to Irani, Saudi Arabia expressed interest in the manoeuvres, and delegations from both countries are set to meet to finalise the details and arrange reciprocal port visits. This collaboration follows the restoration of diplomatic ties in March 2023, brokered by China after a six-year rift. The announcement comes at a time of heightened regional tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliated on 1 October with missile attacks targeting Israeli air bases, following Israeli actions, including the assassination of key leaders in Tehran and Beirut. While Iran hosted multinational naval drills (IMEX 2024) with countries including Russia, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised Iran's readiness to address regional conflicts while urging efforts to prevent escalation.

Major Story

🌍 THE IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE: GEOPOLITICAL AND GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES IN AFRICA

Background

The global rise of populism and authoritarian “strongman” leadership is undermining governance and threatening geopolitical instability in Africa, warns Mo Ibrahim, the founder of the Ibrahim Index of African Governance. According to Ibrahim, the normalisation of authoritarian practices globally has impacted African nations, where 78% of citizens live in countries with worsening security and democracy between 2014 and 2023.

The latest Ibrahim Index assesses governance across security, rights and inclusion, economic opportunity, and human development. The report shows that security and safety experienced the sharpest decline, affecting social protections and economic opportunities. Over half of Africa’s population has faced increased violence in the last five years, while 29 countries have seen significant restrictions on freedom of assembly, civil society, and digital expression.

Despite this, the report highlighted improvements in countries like Seychelles, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Benin, and Angola. Progress was also noted in infrastructure development, mobile connectivity, energy access, and gender equality, with more legal protections for women and increased representation in leadership.

However, the report identified 11 countries, including Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Sahel region, on decade-long declines due to ongoing conflicts and humanitarian crises. Even high-ranking nations like Mauritius, Botswana, Namibia, and Tunisia, while still among the top 10, experienced noticeable declines.

Public dissatisfaction with governance is rising due to unmet expectations and increased awareness of global standards. This trend, according to Ibrahim, poses a risk of escalating social unrest and conflict if not addressed.

Path Forward

To reverse this trend, African leaders must prioritise democratic principles and inclusivity, while tackling insecurity and economic challenges. Strengthening democratic institutions is crucial to ensuring long-term stability and development across the continent.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 UK Labour Party culpable of ‘blatant foreign interference,’ says Donald Trump: Donald Trump's campaign has lodged a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) against the UK’s Labour Party, alleging "blatant foreign interference" in favour of the Harris-Walz campaign. The complaint references media reports indicating that Labour members had contact with the Harris campaign and were seemingly involved in volunteering efforts, claiming these actions constitute illegal "contributions" under U.S. election law. However, sources suggest that Labour activists participating in the U.S. presidential election are doing so independently, not as official representatives of the party. So far, the Labour Party has not issued a formal response to the accusations. The complaint raises concerns about international influence on U.S. elections amid heightened scrutiny over foreign involvement in political campaigns.