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📰 South Korea impeachment bid

📰 South Korea impeachment bid

and Hama falls to rebels

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
December 06, 2024

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Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's headlines include a diplomatic dispute between Paraguay and China, a global operation uncovering a Russian sanctions evasion scheme, and Amnesty International accusing Israel of committing genocide during its war in Gaza—the first such allegation by a major human rights organisation amid an ongoing conflict.

Meanwhile, tensions escalate in Syria and Eastern DR Congo, and our main story highlights France's withdrawal from Niger, where Niamey has assumed control of a uranium mine.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Eastern Congo ceasefire in tatters as fighting resumes between M23 and Congolese military: Clashes between the Congolese army and the M23 rebel group erupted again in eastern Congo, violating a fragile ceasefire ahead of planned mediation talks. The army reported heavy losses inflicted on the rebels in North Kivu’s Lubero territory, while M23 claimed on social media it was also attacked by government forces. The conflict in mineral-rich eastern Congo has displaced over 7 million people and remains one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. Despite a July ceasefire, tensions persist as Presidents Felix Tshisekedi of Congo and Paul Kagame of Rwanda prepare to meet on December 15 for the first time in over a year, amid evidence of Rwandan support for M23, which Rwanda denies but acknowledges having troops in the region.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korea’s president faces impeachment: South Korea's opposition parties have submitted a formal motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol following his controversial martial law declaration. The motion accuses Yoon of violating the constitution by imposing martial law to evade investigations into alleged misconduct involving him and his family. The Democratic Party, which holds a parliamentary majority, insists Yoon must resign immediately or face impeachment, with a vote expected as early as Friday. Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun also offered his resignation amidst his own impeachment motion, potentially complicating the political fallout. To pass, the motion requires support from at least eight members of Yoon's ruling People Power Party, which has vowed to oppose it.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Hama falls to Syrian rebels: Islamist insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have captured Hama, a key city on the road to Damascus, further eroding Bashar al-Assad’s control over Syria. After surrounding Hama during five days of intense clashes, HTS claimed full control on Thursday, urging local forces to defect. Videos suggest insurgents also seized a military airport and released prisoners from a notorious detention facility. Hama’s fall is part of a broader HTS offensive that has displaced over 280,000 people, with the UN warning of a deepening humanitarian crisis. Positioned on a vital highway, Hama has historical significance as the site of uprisings against Assad’s regime and a 1982 massacre under his father’s rule. The UN Secretary-General has called for urgent humanitarian aid and renewed efforts for a political resolution to Syria’s ongoing conflict.

4️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇰🇪 South Sudan peace talks resume: After months of delay and the dismissal of a government delegation, South Sudan’s peace talks resumed in Kenya on Wednesday, aiming to address ongoing conflicts that have devastated the country’s economy. The negotiations involve South Sudan’s government and opposition groups excluded from the 2018 peace deal, which ended a five-year civil war claiming over 400,000 lives. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir emphasized that these talks, known as Tumaini (Swahili for hope), aim to integrate holdout groups' concerns without replacing the 2018 agreement. While that deal remains only partially implemented, South Sudan has postponed its first elections since independence from 2024 to 2026.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇧🇩 Violence targeting Hindus sees India-Bangladesh relations deteriorate: Tensions between India and Bangladesh have intensified, fueled by allegations of attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindu minority that have sparked protests and an attack on a Bangladeshi consulate in India. Relations soured after August's “monsoon revolution” toppled Bangladesh’s authoritarian leader Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India amid protests accusing her regime of corruption and violence. Her ousting is seen as a diplomatic setback for India, which had relied on her leadership to secure strategic and economic deals. Since then, Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus, leading Bangladesh’s caretaker government, has resisted Indian influence, calling for a “reset” in relations, while Bangladesh denies India’s claims of widespread violence against Hindus, accusing Delhi of politicizing the issue.

Major Story

🇫🇷 🇳🇪 NIGER TAKES CONTROL OF FRENCH URANIUM MINE

Overview

French nuclear fuel firm Orano confirmed that Niger's military government has seized operational control of its Somair uranium mine, where it holds a 63% stake. The Nigerien government, which owns the remaining shares, revoked a key mining permit in June 2024, followed by export blockades that stranded 1,150 tons of uranium concentrate and caused losses exceeding $200 million. Operations fully halted in October due to mounting financial and logistical challenges.

Governance Disputes and Financial Impact

Orano revealed that decisions made during Somair board meetings are no longer implemented, underscoring interference from Niger’s authorities. The continued operational expenses are exacerbating the company’s financial strain, prompting concerns about the mine’s future viability. Orano attributed these disruptions to strained relations between Niger and France, worsened by Paris' refusal to acknowledge the military government that came to power in a 2023 coup.

Strategic and Global Implications

Niger, which accounts for 4% of global uranium production and supplies 15-20% of France’s imports, has long been pivotal for Orano. However, the coup has created an unpredictable business environment, with the junta reassessing foreign mining operations and proposing reforms to tighten control over national resources. This marks a turning point for foreign investors in Niger’s mining sector.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇾 🇨🇳 Paraguay expels Chinese envoy: Paraguay has declared senior Chinese diplomat Xu Wei persona non grata for allegedly meddling in its domestic affairs and pressuring the country to sever ties with Taiwan. Paraguay remains Taiwan’s sole ally in South America, standing firm despite Beijing’s aggressive efforts to isolate the self-governing island. In recent years, several Latin American nations, including Honduras and Panama, have switched recognition to China under its one-China policy. Speaking from the congress building partially funded by Taiwan, Xu expressed Beijing’s interest in diplomatic relations but insisted the decision rested with Paraguayan officials.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 Global operation reveals Russian sanctions evasion scheme: The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned five individuals and four entities linked to the TGR Group, an international network enabling sanctions evasion for Russian elites. Among those targeted is a Wyoming-based entity controlled by a sanctioned individual. The network, led by Ukrainian national George Rossi, uses methods such as laundering funds tied to sanctioned entities, facilitating unregistered cryptocurrency exchanges, and enabling high-net-worth Russians to purchase U.K. property. Collaborating with the U.K., UAE, and other partners, OFAC also sanctioned Russian money launderer Ekaterina Zhdanova, who managed illicit transactions via digital assets for the Kremlin. Acting Under Secretary Bradley T. Smith reaffirmed the commitment to dismantling Russia's use of digital assets to bypass sanctions and enrich its elites.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Amnesty International says that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza: Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing genocide during its ongoing war in Gaza, marking the first such allegation by a major human rights organisation amidst an active conflict. A new 32-page report asserts that Israeli actions, including mass killings, deliberate harm, and the destruction of essential infrastructure, were executed with the intent to destroy Gaza’s Palestinian population. The report builds on findings by the UN special rapporteur, who previously identified reasonable grounds for genocide claims. Amnesty highlighted the obstruction of humanitarian aid, systematic attacks on civilians, and the collapse of Gaza’s healthcare, sanitation, and food systems. Secretary-General Agnès Callamard described the findings as a wake-up call, urging immediate international intervention.