Geopolitics Daily
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📰 South Korea in crisis

📰 South Korea in crisis

and Chinese warships near Taiwan

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 11, 2024

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Today's geopolitical updates focus on East Asia, where Taiwan has heightened its 'combat readiness' in response to Chinese warship activity. Meanwhile, South Korea has imposed a travel ban on its president, and Beijing has reportedly established a Wagner Group-style private security entity in conflict-stricken Myanmar.

In other developments, Lebanon and Israel's fragile ceasefire is under strain following multiple violations. The spotlight, however, shifts to Mali's junta and its efforts to reclaim state sovereignty within the Sahel.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 China establishes private security company in Myanmar: China is partnering with Myanmar’s military junta to create a joint security company aimed at safeguarding Chinese investments and personnel in the country. This move reflects Beijing’s growing unease over the safety of projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a critical component of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The corridor provides China direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable Malacca Strait, yet much of it passes through conflict zones where Chinese assets face frequent attacks. Critics argue the venture undermines Myanmar’s sovereignty, as the junta’s 2008 constitution prohibits foreign troop deployment, with Beijing strategically framing the initiative as a private company to sidestep accusations of intervention. The joint venture signals declining confidence in the junta’s ability to secure Chinese interests as its military loses ground to pro-democracy forces.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇷 🇶🇦 🇹🇷 Assad’s prime minister to hand power to rebel rebel administration: The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has marked a turning point after 13 years of civil war and over five decades of Assad family rule. On Monday, Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, announced plans to transfer power to the rebel-led Salvation Government following a swift rebel offensive that seized Damascus and forced Assad to flee to Russia. Regional powers, including Qatar and Iran, have begun engaging with the new leadership, while the U.S. and European nations assess the implications of this seismic shift. Although Syrians remain hopeful for stability, challenges loom, including rebuilding a war-ravaged nation, managing lingering militant threats, and reintegrating millions of displaced citizens. Meanwhile, Israel’s military actions in Syria and Saudi Arabia’s warnings about regional instability underscore the fragile nature of the transition.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korea bans president from leaving the country: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been barred from leaving the country amid accusations from opposition leaders that his party orchestrated a "second coup" by blocking his impeachment. Immigration official Bae Sang-up confirmed during a parliamentary session that Yoon is subject to a travel ban following his failed attempt to impose martial law last week. The declaration, which lasted just six hours, ended after lawmakers clashed with soldiers inside the parliament before overturning the order. Opposition Democratic Party leader Park Chan-dae condemned the ruling People Power Party's actions, accusing them of unlawfully defying the constitution to keep Yoon in power.

4️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan initiates ‘combat readiness’ over Chinese warship activity: Taiwan’s military remains on high alert following the detection of Chinese warships and coast guard vessels near the island, Taipei announced Monday, as Beijing pledged to "firmly defend" its sovereignty. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also imposed airspace restrictions off China’s coast. Speculation has mounted over potential Chinese military drills in reaction to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s Pacific tour, which included stops in Hawaii and Guam. In response, Taiwan initiated combat readiness exercises, taking into account enemy threats and tactical positioning. The MND confirmed PLA naval formations from multiple theater commands operating near the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, prompting heightened vigilance, particularly on Taiwan’s outlying islands.

5️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇬🇾 One year on from Venezuela’s Guyana claim: A year after Venezuela’s referendum asserting its claim on Guyana's Essequibo region, tensions linger as Nicolás Maduro's regime grapples with growing instability. The December 2023 vote, marred by low turnout and falsified results, mirrored the fraud of the July 2024 presidential election, where opposition candidate Edmundo González’s landslide victory was overturned. Maduro’s declining legitimacy, coupled with regional elections in Guyana and uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump, raises concerns about escalating tensions. Although outright war remains improbable, Venezuela’s weakened position and political volatility in the region could lead to missteps, reigniting the conflict over Essequibo. Regional powers must sustain diplomatic pressure to deter aggression and avoid a potential disaster for Maduro and the region at large.

Major Story

🇲🇱 MALI’S SOVEREIGNIST TURN: BALANCING INDEPENDENCE AND RISKS

Background

Since taking power in 2021, Mali’s military junta has prioritised sovereignty, combining nationalism and pan-Africanism to reassert state control after years of foreign intervention. This shift resonates with younger Malians disillusioned by corrupt elites and failed international efforts to halt security deterioration. Social media amplifies these sentiments, fueling popular support for policies like breaking with France and forging alliances with Russia. In 2023, the government’s new approach led to significant moves, such as retaking Kidal from northern separatists and withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Strategic Pitfalls

While reclaiming sovereignty energizes public hope, it risks authoritarian drift, economic strain due to reduced Western aid, and renewed northern conflicts. Mali may exchange one dependency for another by aligning closely with Russia. Without addressing social and economic needs, such as health, education, and infrastructure, popular support could wane.

Path Forward

Analysts from International Crisis Group advocate for a recalibrated approach from the Junta’s authorities. Redirecting public spending to social services and cautiously re-engaging with international financial partners are critical. Dialogue with armed groups and curbing divisive rhetoric can promote cohesion. Meanwhile, international actors should align with Mali’s sovereignty goals while encouraging reforms for stability. Mali’s path forward requires balancing independence with inclusivity, ensuring progress benefits its people and fosters long-term peace in the Sahel.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Lebanon and Israel’s precarious ceasefire: On 26 November, Lebanon and Israel brokered a U.S.- and French-mediated ceasefire, ending months of escalation between Israel and Hizbollah. This conflict, triggered by Hizbollah's actions to distract from Israel's Gaza campaign, caused widespread displacement, destruction, and nearly 4,000 Lebanese and 130 Israeli deaths. The agreement, resembling the 2006 truce, requires Lebanon to curb non-state armed groups south of the Litani River and deploy its army to borderlands within 60 days. However, Israel retains broad rights for self-defence, raising enforcement challenges despite a new U.S.- and French-backed monitoring mechanism. With both sides conducting strikes post-truce—including deadly Israeli violations in the South—the risk of renewed violence looms. The deal's success hinges on compliance mediation bodies, strategic enhancement of Lebanese state institutions, and discernable consequences for Israel’s sabre-rattling.