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📰 South Korea’s government in turmoil

📰 South Korea’s government in turmoil

and Syria's civil war escalates

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 05, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

Today's headlines are dominated by the resurgence of Syria's civil war: Reports suggest that Iran is hesitant to deploy troops, even as Syrian insurgents advance toward Hama city.

Meanwhile, Washington and Abu Dhabi are reportedly in talks with Assad, offering sanction relief in exchange for severing ties with Iran. In other news, Namibia has elected its first-ever female president, and South Korea's parliament has rejected the president's declaration of martial law.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korean president rescinds martial law decree after parliamentary uproar: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced on Wednesday that he would revoke a surprise martial law declaration made the previous evening, following unanimous rejection by the opposition-controlled National Assembly. The declaration, aimed at combating alleged "anti-state forces," marked the country’s first imposition of martial law since 1980 and sparked widespread outrage, in addition to the Won plummeting against the US dollar. The opposition Democratic Party has called for Yoon's resignation or impeachment, accusing him of treason and claiming his actions demonstrate an inability to govern effectively. Senior party member Park Chan-dae declared, “Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid treason charges.” The incident represents South Korea’s most severe political crisis in decades, intensifying calls for Yoon’s accountability.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syrian insurgents march on Hama city: Syrian insurgents have intensified their offensive in Hama province, targeting government forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in a bid to sever a crucial supply route connecting Damascus to militant-held Aleppo. According to state news agency Sana, the Syrian army is engaged in "violent confrontations" with armed groups in the area. Insurgent forces reported capturing the towns of Maardis and Soran, located just north of Hama, positioning themselves roughly six miles from the city. The escalation threatens Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, and underscores the strategic stakes in the ongoing conflict.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Biden earmarks $725m in further security assistance for Ukraine: The Department of Defense has announced a new $725 million security assistance package for Ukraine, part of President Biden's broader effort to bolster Kyiv’s position amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. This marks the 71st transfer of equipment from U.S. stockpiles to Ukraine since August 2021 under the Presidential Drawdown Authority. The latest package includes air defense systems, munitions for rocket and artillery systems, and anti-tank weaponry.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇾 🇮🇷 Washington and Abu Dhabi reportedly negotiate sanction relief with Assad, in exchange for severing Iran ties: The U.S. and the UAE have been exploring the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he distances himself from Iran and halts weapons shipments to Hizbollah in Lebanon. These talks gained momentum recently, driven by the upcoming expiration of U.S. sanctions on Syria and Israel's ongoing campaign against Iran's regional network. The discussions followed a major rebel advance into Aleppo, signaling a potential weakening of Assad’s alliance with Iran. While both the U.S. and UAE see an opportunity to exploit this shift, Assad’s potential reliance on Iranian support for a counteroffensive could complicate these efforts. In exchange for distancing from Iran, there is speculation about sanctions relief and possible UAE support for Syria’s reconstruction.

5️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇫🇷 🇱🇧 Riyadh, Paris call for Lebanon elections after penning strategic partnership: French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Riyadh on Monday for a three-day state visit amidst a domestic political crisis threatening his government. Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed enhancing bilateral ties through agreements on defence, energy, culture, and mobility. The leaders also pledged to support regional stability, including consolidating the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and urging presidential elections in Lebanon to address its political and economic crises. Macron’s visit, the first by a French leader to Saudi Arabia since 2006, underscores efforts to strengthen ties through potential arms deals, economic collaboration, and addressing conflicts in the Middle East.

Major Story

🇫🇷 FRANCE’S NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE: GOVERNMENT ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE

Background

France is facing a political crisis, as Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government is at risk of being ousted in a no-confidence vote. This unprecedented event—if successful—would mark the first time since 1962 that a French government has fallen through such a motion. The far-left and far-right opposition parties are set to vote against Barnier’s government, which has been struggling to pass a controversial 2025 budget aimed at reducing the national deficit. The budget includes tax hikes and spending cuts totaling €60 billion, but it has been met with fierce opposition.

Political Instability and France's Future

The vote—scheduled for today—comes after Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the constitution to push through the social security component of the budget without parliamentary approval. This move triggered a no-confidence motion, leading to a tense showdown. If Barnier's government is ousted, it would be the shortest-lived in France’s Fifth Republic, leaving the country in political limbo until new elections can be held. President Emmanuel Macron, currently on a diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia, faces a "moment of truth" as the country’s political and financial future hangs in the balance.

This vote has significant implications for both France and Europe, coming at a time when the country is dealing with economic austerity and political instability. If successful, the opposition's victory could further destabilise France, complicating its role in European and global affairs.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 Iran hesitant to deploy troops to Syria: Sunni militants have captured most of Aleppo for the first time since 2016 following a swift offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions. Russia has confirmed conducting airstrikes to support Syrian government forces against the rebels. Meanwhile, Iran, while rallying regional support for Bashar al-Assad, appears cautious about expanding its military footprint, potentially signaling to Damascus its reliance on Tehran’s past intervention. The offensive coincided with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah, highlighting the intersection of conflicts in the region.

2️⃣ 🇳🇦 Namibia’s Swapo party extends its three decade hold on power: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has made history as Namibia’s first female president, winning 57% of the vote and solidifying the ruling Swapo party’s 34-year grip on power. A key figure in Namibia’s independence struggle, the 72-year-old leader emphasised peace and stability after her election. Her rise follows the unexpected death of President Hage Geingob earlier this year, which saw her transition from vice-president to head of state. The election faced criticism from opposition parties, citing ballot shortages and the legality of extended voting hours. They plan to challenge the results in court. Despite these disputes, Nandi-Ndaitwah’s victory represents a landmark moment in Namibian politics, as the country continues its journey from apartheid-era rule toward greater representation.