Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 South Sudan peace deal falters

📰 South Sudan peace deal falters

Egypt’s $1.3bn US aid deal

Ross Crabtree
September 12, 2024

Hello,

In the Middle East, the Biden administration has announced $1.3 billion in military aid for Egypt, circumventing human rights prerequisites. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood has won Jordan's parliamentary elections, and six UN staff members were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Nuseirat, Gaza.

In Africa, Commonwealth members are calling for reparations for slavery and colonialism, Kenya is mediating talks between South Sudan's government and exiled leaders, and RSF fighters have posted social media content that could serve as evidence in international war crimes trials.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇯🇴 The Muslim Brotherhood wins Jordan’s parliamentary elections: Jordan’s Islamist opposition party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), has emerged as the leading force in the country’s parliamentary elections but fell short of an outright majority, according to official results. The IAF, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, secured 31 out of 138 seats, tripling its presence in the House of Representatives, as announced by the election commission. Jordan has maintained a delicate political balance during Israel’s recent actions in Gaza and the West Bank, continuing its diplomatic ties with Israel while intervening in Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on Israel in April by intercepting missiles over its territory. While the election outcome is unlikely to significantly alter Jordan's policy toward Palestine, it reflects growing dissatisfaction within Jordan's political landscape over the monarchy's handling of the crisis. Despite the IAF’s gains, real power in Jordan remains with the king—who has the authority to appoint governments and dissolve Parliament—though the assembly can force a government to resign through a no-confidence vote. This marks the Islamists' strongest showing since 1989, when they won 22 out of 80 seats in Parliament.

2️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇰🇪 Kenyan mediators meet with South Sudan’s government and exiled leaders: In its 13 years of independence, South Sudan has struggled with persistent political and economic instability. The country faces a severe humanitarian crisis, with 7.1 million of its 12 million people suffering from hunger. The ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan has exacerbated the situation, leading to a refugee influx, reduced oil revenues, and disrupted trade. Negotiations in Nairobi between the coalition government and opposition groups aim to strengthen the 2018 peace deal, which created a unity government and set goals like drafting a new constitution, unifying the armed forces, and holding elections. However, progress has stalled, and the deal is set to expire soon with elections likely delayed. Since talks began in May, efforts have focused on extending the deal and postponing elections. Riek Machar—the First Vice President and former adversary of President Salva Kiir from the civil war days—has withdrawn from negotiations, demanding full implementation of the peace deal before any elections can be held. Direct talks between Machar and Salva Kiir in Juba have yet to produce results.

3️⃣ 🇬🇲 🇬🇭 🇱🇸 Commonwealth constituents call for slavery, colonialism reparations: The three candidates vying to become the next Secretary General of the Commonwealth have advocated for reparations for nations impacted by slavery and colonisation. Representing Gambia, Ghana, and Lesotho, the candidates voiced support for either financial reparations or "reparative justice" during a debate hosted by Chatham House in London. Last year, African and Caribbean nations united to demand compensation from former slave-owning states for "historical mass crimes." Ghana’s Foreign Minister Shirley Botchwey stated, "Financial reparations are beneficial," but emphasised that the Commonwealth's role would be determined by the heads of government who will instruct the new Secretary General. The election for the Secretary General will be held during the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa from October 21 to 26.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UNRWA staff among those killed by Israeli strike on Nuseirat school: An Israeli airstrike targeted a central Gaza school used as a shelter for displaced Palestinians, resulting in 18 deaths, according to the territory's civil defence agency. The UN reported that six of its staff were among those killed. The UN Palestinian refugee agency, Unrwa, noted that this was the highest number of its staff casualties in a single incident, as two airstrikes struck the school and its vicinity in Nuseirat. The UN agency detailed that the victims included the shelter manager and other team members assisting displaced individuals. In response, the IDF stated that it had carried out a "precise strike" on terrorists operating within a Hamas command-and-control centre located on the school grounds but did not provide further details on the results or the specific targets. Local sources reported that approximately 5,000 displaced people were taking refuge at the school at the time of the attack on Wednesday.

5️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 Spanish PM urges EU to ‘reconsider’ China EV tariffs: As he concluded his visit to China, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez urged the EU to "reconsider" its plan to impose tariffs of up to 36 percent on Chinese electric cars. Sánchez emphasised the need for Brussels and Beijing to reach a "compromise." Speaking at Mondragon Industrial Park in Kunshan, near Shanghai, Sánchez stated, "I must be blunt and frank: we need to reassess our position on these tariffs, not just as member states but also as the Commission." In August, the EU proposed imposing five-year import duties of up to 36 percent on electric vehicles from China, following Washington’s lead. A vote among EU members is scheduled for November 2 to determine whether these tariffs will be enacted. The day after the EU's tariff announcement, China responded by launching a WTO investigation into EU subsidies for dairy products exported to China.

Major Story

🇲🇽 MEXICAN SENATE GREENLIGHTS JUDICIAL REFORM PLAN

Mexico's Senate has approved a major judiciary overhaul, removing the final barrier for a constitutional change that will require all judges to be elected. Critics worry this move could politicise the judiciary and undermine democratic principles.

In a 12-hour session marked by protests and interruptions, the ruling Morena party and allies secured the two-thirds majority needed for the reform, with a final vote of 86 to 41. Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who supports the changes as a way to combat corruption, celebrated the victory.

The reforms, which will take effect once published in the official gazette, include electing over 6,500 judges and magistrates, reducing the Supreme Court from 11 to nine judges, and altering their terms and qualifications. The lower house approved the changes last week.

Protests against the overhaul disrupted the Senate session, with demonstrators accusing the ruling party of coercion. Critics argue the reforms could weaken judicial independence and increase political and criminal influence over the courts.

The overhaul has raised concerns among Mexico's trading partners, the US and Canada, about potential impacts on the USMCA trade agreement and investment. Market reactions have been negative, with the peso falling 17% since June’s elections, which saw Morena win by a landslide.

Incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum, starting her term on October 2, will need to address the fallout from these reforms, which are expected to dominate her early presidency.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇬 Washington approves $1.3bn in military aid for Egypt, despite Human Rights concerns: The Biden administration has announced it will provide Egypt with $1.3 billion in military aid, bypassing usual conditions related to human rights improvements. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that this aid would proceed without the standard human rights stipulations. The decision, which prioritises national security and regional peace efforts, supports Egypt's role in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas and its broader contributions to US security objectives. The US State Department emphasised the aid's importance for advancing peace and humanitarian efforts in Gaza. However, human rights organisations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticise the decision, arguing that Egypt's government continues to engage in widespread repression of political dissent. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who came to power in a 2013 coup, has faced criticism for his government's human rights record, though military assistance from the US has persisted since then.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 RSF posting war crimes on social media: Footage showing Sudanese rebel fighters allegedly glorifying the burning of homes and the torture of prisoners may serve as evidence for war crime prosecutions, experts have told the Guardian. This evidence could be used by international courts, especially as the International Criminal Court has called for visual and audio evidence from Darfur. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, have been accused of ethnic cleansing in Sudan as they attempt to seize control of the country. In 2023, intense fighting in Darfur led to the deaths of over 10,000 people, primarily from the Masalit ethnic group. A UN investigation later uncovered a mass grave containing numerous Masalit civilians, allegedly killed by the RSF.