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📰 South Sudan peace talks to resume

📰 South Sudan peace talks to resume

and Iran rethinks policy

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
November 08, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

In the last 24 hours, the legislative assembly in Indian-administered Kashmir passed a resolution demanding the restoration of partial autonomy, while South Sudan’s peace talks are set to resume under Kenya's mediation.

Meanwhile, speculation intensifies over Donald Trump's potential White House appointments following his re-election, as the UK and Europe prepares for the impact of impending tariffs. Today's main story offers a detailed analysis of what Trump's return to office could mean for the Middle East.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Speculation grows over Trump’s foreign policy portfolio selections: Following his election night victory, Donald Trump’s advisers have outlined his key Day One priorities, which include issuing executive orders focused on border security, oil drilling, and advancing energy independence. With the potential for a Republican-controlled Congress, Trump’s team is ready to implement his America First agenda swiftly upon his return to office. Jason Miller, a senior adviser, mentioned that executive actions on closing the southern border and boosting energy exploration to reduce prices are among the immediate steps. Before taking action, Trump and his transition team are vetting candidates for Cabinet and other top administration roles. Speculation about high-profile appointments is intensifying, with names like Senators Marco Rubio, Bill Hagerty, and Tom Cotton, as well as former National Intelligence Director Rick Grenell, circulating for positions such as Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense.

2️⃣ 🇯🇴 🇮🇱 Jordan’s dilemma as Israel’s strategic buffer zone: The 1994 Wadi Araba Agreement between Israel and Jordan was intended to foster peace, but its legacy has been marred by Israeli expansion and Jordan's diminishing sovereignty. While the agreement envisioned mutual respect and dignity, its benefits have largely bypassed the Jordanian public, who view it as a "Agreement of Shame." Over 30 years, the terms have been violated, with Israeli aircraft crossing Jordanian airspace and the country increasingly seen as a buffer for Israeli security. The Hashemite Kingdom has struggled to assert its independence, as evidenced by its passive stance on Israeli military actions and the growing presence of NATO in Amman. Despite the idealistic promises of the agreement, Israel's ambitions in the region have overshadowed Jordan's interests, leaving the kingdom compromised and isolated.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇰🇪 South Sudan peace talks to resume, under Kenya’s supervision: Peace talks for South Sudan are set to resume following a directive from President Salva Kiir and Kenyan President William Ruto, who met on Wednesday and instructed the mediation team to reconvene within two weeks to address unresolved issues. The talks had stalled in July after long-serving political opponent of Salva Kiir—Riek Machar—withdrew his party citing concerns that mediators sought to replace the 2018 peace agreement that ended a five-year civil war. While the agreement remains incomplete, South Sudan postponed its 2023 elections to 2025 to implement key electoral processes. The Tumaini initiative—ongoing since May—seeks to include non-signatory groups to promote lasting peace. However, concerns have been raised over a controversial new security law allowing detention without warrants, drawing criticism from western diplomats and human rights groups. Meanwhile, South Sudan faces an economic crisis, with civil servants unpaid for nearly a year due to pipeline disruptions.

4️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Kashmir pushes for restoration of partial self-rule: The legislative assembly in Indian-administered Kashmir has passed a resolution calling for the restoration of partial autonomy. The move, approved on Wednesday, follows a victory in last month's regional election by the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), which had promised to return self-rule to the Muslim-majority region. In 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government revoked Jammu and Kashmir's special status, and the territory has since been governed by an appointee of New Delhi. The resolution urges India to engage in dialogue with Kashmir’s elected representatives to restore its special status and emphasises the importance of preserving the region’s identity, culture, and rights. The BJP opposed the motion, dismissing it as ineffective and reiterating support for the revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy. The region remains a flashpoint in the long-standing India-Pakistan conflict.

5️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Debate for a two-state solution emerges from Iran’s clerical reformist bloc: Reformists in Iran have sparked a debate about whether the country should reconsider its longstanding opposition to a two-state solution for the Palestinian territories, which would involve recognising Israel. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has firmly opposed Zionism, a stance it shared with the Palestine Liberation Organization until the 1990s Oslo Accords. Despite Iran’s view of Israel as a colonial project, a reformist body in Qom recently called for the return of Israel to its pre-1967 borders and the formation of a Palestinian state. This statement faced backlash from hardliners, who condemned it as shameful. Although the seminary clarified its position, it remains a controversial issue hindering Iran’s regional alliances, as demonstrated by its absence from a recent two-state solution conference in Riyadh.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 WHAT A TRUMP PRESIDENCY COULD MEAN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST 🇱🇧 🇮🇷 🇸🇦

Background

The United States stands as the most influential force in the global system, uniquely capable of executing a truly international foreign policy and projecting power across nearly any region.

With the U.S. election concluded, the Middle East now watches to see if the new Trump administration will alter its course or reinforce the status quo. Much will depend on Trump’s choices for the three top foreign policy posts—Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Advisor—where loyalty to Trump is expected to weigh more heavily than policy uniformity.

Known for his assertive, unilateral approach, Trump may seek to craft a foreign policy that will impact four critical aspects of the Middle East landscape: Israel and its regional conflicts, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the region’s engagement with the UN and multilateral diplomacy.

Israel/Palestine and the War on Lebanon

Hawkish Israel Support: Trump has consistently shown strong support for Israel, labelling it a "cherished ally." His actions, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy there, and recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, underscore this alignment. Trump has urged Israel to conclude its operations quickly, warning that prolonged conflict could erode international support. Meanwhile, the due processes of the ICJ and ICC are likely to face obstacles under a Trump presidency, given the certainty of ongoing diplomatic and political cover his administration will provide for Israel’s political and military leadership.

Peace to Prosperity Plan & Limiting Multilateral Involvement: Trump’s 2020 peace plan, “Peace to Prosperity,” excluded Palestinian leadership and acted more as Israel’s attorney. He defunded the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), displaying his lack of support for Palestinian autonomy in peace negotiations. In a new term, Trump is likely to continue sidelining Palestinians in peace negotiations and to express scepticism toward U.S. involvement in multilateral organisations like the UN, signalling his preference for unilateralism and alignment with Israel's sovereign interests.

Iran

“Maximum Pressure” Campaign & Prevention of Nuclear Capabilities: Trump’s Iran policy centres on isolation and sanction-heavy strategies, dubbing Iran the "leading state sponsor of terrorism," demonstrated through his torpedoing of the 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the assassination of IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani. Trump's position on Iran's nuclear ambitions emphasises prevention at all costs. During his term, he considered Iranian nuclear capabilities a direct threat, with “peace through strength” as his guiding policy. He repeatedly asserted that his administration’s sanctions left Iran economically weakened, pressured to negotiate or face heightened consequences.

Iranian Retaliation and Hybrid Tactics: With the heightened risk of escalations, Iran may shift to hybrid tactics like cyberattacks against U.S. interests. Trump’s first term saw a significant decline in diplomatic engagement, with broader sanctions aimed at impairing Iran’s allies such as Hizbollah. His strategy also positioned the U.S. military to respond quickly to Iranian provocations, which tacitly fostered regional instability.

Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia

Abraham Accords Expansion: Trump pioneered the Abraham Accords—normalising relations between Israel and Morocco, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (with Sudan initially joining but recently signalling intentions to withdraw)—at substantial political cost to Palestine and Western Sahara. Trump has expressed continued support for further diplomatic efforts, aiming to expand normalisation with other regional actors, even suggesting engagement with Iran.

Saudi Relationship and Arms Sales: Trump maintained a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, approving extensive arms sales and defending Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, amid human rights concerns. He previously vetoed legislation intended to limit U.S. involvement in the Saudi-led conflict in Yemen, worsening humanitarian conditions and tacitly fast-tracking the Houthis' political ascendancy. This enabled the Houthis to position themselves to at-risk Yemeni populations as "legitimate defenders" of Yemeni sovereignty against foreign aggression.

Oil Supply Influence: Trump leveraged his relationship with Saudi Arabia to influence global oil markets, reportedly pressuring Riyadh to adjust production to stabilise prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given recent fluctuations in oil prices, Trump’s approach to securing Saudi loyalty could again prioritise economic collaboration over diplomatic restrictions.

The UN and Multilateralism

Reduced UN Involvement: Trump’s Middle East strategy suggests a bleak outlook for multilateral organisations—with minimal U.S. engagement in UN institutions highly likely—while maintaining the widely criticised use of veto power at the UN Security Council, aligning with the broader U.S. foreign policy status quo.

Unilateralism, U.S. exceptionalism: In contrast to multilateral diplomacy, Trump has historically prioritised unilateral approaches in his foreign policy, viewing unpredictability as a strategic advantage. His administration's withdrawal from agreements like the JCPOA epitomised this approach—prioritising direct influence over collective commitments with allies. This approach was grounded in his ontological commitment to U.S. exceptionalism, consistently asserting America's unique role in shaping global affairs, independent of international consensus, agreements, or frameworks.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 United Kingdom braces itself for U.S. trade tariffs: During his election campaign, Donald Trump emphasised an "America First" approach, aiming to attract investment, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and leverage trade as a geopolitical tool, said Marco Forgione, head of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade. While Trump has expressed admiration for the U.K., businesses should not assume there will be no consequences for British producers. Trump’s trade arsenal includes potential tariffs of 10-20% on all U.S. imports and 60% on Chinese goods, which could heavily impact the U.K., its largest export market. Economists warn that U.K. industries, particularly high-value sectors like vehicles, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals, could face significant losses. Ahmet Kaya from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research added that British exporters could encounter higher costs, with potential retaliatory tariffs from other nations.