📰 Musk vs Tusk

and Ukraine to accept ceasefire

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 12, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, the U.S. remains in the spotlight as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirms its status as an ‘ally,’ while Musk and Rubio clash with Warsaw over Starlink’s involvement in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Haiti has appointed a new leader for its transitional presidential council.

Our main story explores the link between water scarcity and conflict in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Jordan and Iraq.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Ukraine to accept 30–day ceasefire, U.S. to lift freeze on military aid and intelligence: Following high-level talks in Jeddah, the U.S. agreed to immediately restore military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, contingent on Kyiv’s willingness to enact a 30-day ceasefire—provided Moscow does the same. Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed responsibility on Russia, stating, “The ball is now in their court.” The discussions also covered humanitarian relief, prisoner exchanges, and the U.S.-Ukraine rare-earths deal. Meanwhile, tensions escalated as Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone strike on Moscow, killing at least three and damaging infrastructure. While Zelensky and Trump praised the Jeddah talks, a major dispute remains: Ukraine demands U.S. security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression, but Trump insists Europe should bear that responsibility. As Western officials debate an international security force for Kyiv, Russia has yet to respond to the ceasefire proposal.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Fritz Alphonse Jean takes over Haiti’s transitional presidential council: Haiti’s transitional presidential council appointed economist and former central bank governor Fritz Alphonse Jean as its new leader on Friday, replacing Leslie Voltaire in the council’s rotating presidency. The council, formed in 2024 after gangs overran the capital and forced Prime Minister Ariel Henry to resign, is tasked with governing the country and organizing elections set for February 2026. Jean described Haiti’s ongoing crisis as a “war,” urging national unity to combat widespread violence, particularly in Port-au-Prince, where gangs control an estimated 85% of the city. Despite the deployment of a U.N.-backed Kenyan-led security mission, gang attacks persist. Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has proposed establishing a support office to aid the mission with drones, fuel, and transportation, as Haiti recorded over 5,600 deaths in 2024—1,000 more than the previous year.

3️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 Some arms sales blocked as Democrats ramp up pressure on UAE: Congressional Democrats are pushing to halt U.S. arms sales to the UAE over its alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s civil war. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has quietly blocked arms transfers since late last year and is set to introduce legislation restricting military aid to any country arming Sudan’s warring factions. The proposed U.S. Engagement in Sudanese Peace Act would increase sanctions, prohibit military exports to implicated nations, and allocate funds for a Sudan special envoy. Meanwhile, Sudan has filed a genocide case against the UAE at the International Court of Justice. Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Sara Jacobs plans to introduce a separate bill explicitly targeting U.S. arms sales to the UAE, escalating pressure on Washington to reconsider its military partnerships in the region.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Tehran open to nuclear negotiations with U.S., says UN mission: Iran has expressed a conditional openness to discussing its nuclear program with the United States, but only if the talks are focused on military concerns. This comes a day after Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to reject President Trump's offer for negotiations. While Khamenei’s previous comments denounced foreign interference, his mission to the United Nations clarified that discussions would be considered if the goal was to address military aspects of Iran's nuclear activities, though they would never aim to dismantle the country's peaceful nuclear program. The apparent contradictions in Iran's stance reflect internal divisions on whether to re-engage in talks following the U.S.'s withdrawal from the nuclear deal during Trump's first term.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel launches Gaza, West Bank attacks despite ceasefire: Israeli forces killed five Palestinians, including a 60-year-old woman, in Jenin over the past 24 hours, the Palestinian Authority (PA) reported, as one of the largest West Bank operations in years continues. The PA also confirmed the killing of a wanted man by Palestinian security forces. Since Israel launched its military campaign in January, over 30 Palestinians—many of whom were civilians—have been killed, and tens of thousands have been displaced. Meanwhile, Israeli special forces killed two armed men in a Jenin gun battle, while another Palestinian was shot near a checkpoint. In a separate incident, Israeli settlers attacked the village of Umm Safa, setting fire to vehicles. International actors, including France, Germany, and the UN, have voiced concern over the operation’s scale and urged restraint.

Major Story

🇯🇴 🇮🇶 WATER SCARCITY AND CONFLICT NEXUS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A TIPPING POINT

The Middle East has long grappled with water scarcity and conflict. Despite technological advancements, governance failures and political tensions have exacerbated water insecurity. Rapid population growth, climate change, and inefficient resource management have pushed the region to crisis point.

The Tigris and Euphrates rivers have seen a 70% decline in flow over the past century, while the Jordan River is now a trickle, and the Dead Sea’s water level has dropped dramatically. Climate change further threatens the region, reducing snowmelt and soil moisture, while populations in vulnerable countries like Iraq and Yemen are expected to nearly double by 2050.

Transboundary Tensions, Governance Failures and Conflict

Transboundary water management remains a critical challenge. Sixty percent of surface waters are shared, yet effective water-sharing agreements are rare. Historical tensions, such as Turkey’s dam-building on the Euphrates and Syria’s retaliatory support for Kurdish insurgents, highlight how water fuels interstate friction. Governance and institutional failures—including unsustainable subsidies and a proliferation of corrupt patronage systems—worsen the crisis.

Recent political junctures, from the U.S. invasion of Iraq to the Arab Spring, have derailed water reforms. Wars, displacement, and corruption have left infrastructure in disrepair. In conflict zones Syria and Yemen, non-state actors control water resources, complicating long-term solutions. Humanitarian aid, while vital, cannot address the political drivers of water insecurity, often resorting to unsustainable stopgaps like water trucking.

Iraq, Jordan, and Beyond

Iraq and Jordan exemplify the region’s challenges. Iraq’s traditional flood agriculture persists despite declining river flows, leading to saline soil and shortages in Basra. Jordan, one of the world’s most water-scarce nations as a result of arbitrarily drawn colonial borders, faces additional strain from refugee inflows and unreliable transboundary neighbors. Both countries urgently need reforms, including improved water-sharing agreements and investments in alternative sources like desalination.

To avert a full-blown crisis, the region must address political and governance challenges. Key steps include fostering transboundary cooperation, promoting domestic water efficiency, building local capacity, and engaging diplomatically to ensure equitable resource sharing. Without decisive action, water scarcity will fuel further instability, making sustainable water management an urgent priority.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇱 🇺🇦 Musk, Rubio clash with Warsaw over Starlink’s Ukraine role: Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, urged allies to show respect for each other, emphasizing the importance of leadership rooted in humility and collaboration, in a post on X following a heated social media exchange between U.S. and Polish officials. The dispute began when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski, for suggesting Ukraine might need alternatives to Starlink, a service Poland funds for Ukraine’s military. Meanwhile, Elon Musk defended Starlink, assuring that it would not be turned off despite disagreements over Ukraine’s policy, even as speculation about Eutelsat replacing Starlink in Ukraine's connectivity grew.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 U.S. ‘still an ally,’ says Von der Leyen: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the U.S. as an ally despite Washington’s abrupt halt to military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. However, she notably omitted the U.S. from a list of "like-minded" partners, instead highlighting Canada, Norway, and Britain as key allies for deeper cooperation. Speaking on the first 100 days of her second term, von der Leyen acknowledged rising global instability, cautioning that “sovereignty and ironclad commitments are being questioned” and warning against economic vulnerabilities. She pointed to the EU’s recent trade agreements as efforts to strengthen its global position. As Europe reassesses its security landscape, concerns over American reliability persist, particularly given its past energy dependence on Russian gas and current reliance on U.S. weaponry—now facing limitations amid Ukraine’s ongoing war.