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📰 Spain and Slovakia defy NATO

📰 Spain and Slovakia defy NATO

and ICC urged to investigate Wagner Group

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 25, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Russia in the spotlight today as Moscow eyes Libya as a fallback option amid its receding influence in Syria, and calls intensify for the ICC to investigate Russia’s Wagner Group for alleged war crimes and digital propaganda campaigns in West Africa. Meanwhile, in Washington, a new Pentagon report casts doubt on the effectiveness of recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility.

Our top story shifts to The Hague, where European states are building ad hoc coalitions amid waning U.S. commitment.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Iran–Israel ceasefire takes effect, UN lambasts Israel's catastrophic aid programme: A ceasefire declared on social media by President Donald Trump took effect today, aiming to halt the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. This came despite Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi initially stating that Tehran had not held talks with Washington regarding a ceasefire. Both sides are now signalling tentative compliance. Israel breached the announcement with over 100 airstrikes on Tehran, including on the headquarters of the SPND nuclear programme, while Iran launched fresh missile salvos that caused destruction in Beersheva. Meanwhile, in what has become a grossly recurrent pattern vis-a-vis Israel’s ‘Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’ aid distribution sites, Israeli forces opened fire on Palestinian people queuing for food, killing 21 and wounding around 150. Five others died in a separate airstrike on a Gaza City home. The UN has reiterated its condemnation of the aid delivery system, which it says has integrated food into Israeli military strategy.

2️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇸🇰 🇳🇱 Spain and Slovakia defy new NATO defence spending stance at Hague: Spain has emerged as NATO’s main source of frustration at this year’s summit, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez rejecting the alliance’s new 5 percent GDP defence target. Securing a carve-out just before the final agreement, Spain has angered allies, with Slovakia’s Robert Fico close behind after declaring that rearmament isn’t a national priority. NATO members are critical, writes Politico, arguing that Spain’s claim it can meet force capability targets without new funding is unconvincing. The backlash follows Canada’s exit from the alliance’s “doghouse” after Prime Minister Carney pledged to reach 2 percent. With Trump set to arrive in The Hague, NATO members fear that partisanship could unravel consensus and inspire further opt-outs.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Pentagon report doubts Trump claim that Iran’s nuclear sites were destroyed: A preliminary Pentagon intelligence report casts doubt on President Trump’s claim that recent U.S. strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities. The assessment, based on U.S. Central Command’s battle damage review, indicates that Iran’s enrichment sites at Fordow and Natanz were not destroyed and that nuclear activity could resume within months. Much of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was reportedly moved beforehand, possibly to undisclosed locations. The report contradicts Trump’s assertion of a total military success and highlights Fordow’s resilience, buried deep beneath bedrock in the Zagros Mountains. While the White House dismissed the leak as an attempt to discredit the operation, Vice President JD Vance admitted the U.S. doesn’t know where the uranium is. The IAEA also confirmed it has lost visibility over Iran’s stockpile, raising further concerns about long-term impact.

4️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇺🇸 Washington threatens Bogotá with decertification over coca production and Petro’s drug war stance: U.S.–Colombia relations are under strain as Washington considers decertifying Colombia for failing to meet drug policy goals, a move that could halt hundreds of millions in aid. At the heart of the issue is Bogotá’s suspension of forced coca eradication, a policy President Petro defends as protecting rural communities. Despite record cocaine seizures, U.S. officials cite rising coca cultivation—now at historic highs—as justification. Decertification would trigger aid cuts, restrict visas, and erode critical military cooperation. While Colombia remains a major U.S. ally and defence partner, political tensions between Petro and President Trump have sharpened, particularly over migration and Petro’s push to reassess drug prohibition. Analysts warn decertification could weaken Colombia’s already-stretched security forces and accelerate Bogotá’s shift toward alternative global partners, reshaping regional influence in Washington’s backyard.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus church bombing raises fears of jihadist fragmentation and sectarian relapse: A suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Church in Damascus on Sunday killed 25 and wounded 63. While Syrian authorities initially blamed ISIS, responsibility was later claimed by Saraya Ansar al-Sunna (SAS), a radical, little-known faction targeting religious minorities since February. Likely a splinter from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now leads Syria’s transitional government, SAS rejects HTS’s pragmatic turn and alleged dilution of Islamic law. Critics argue HTS enabled such extremism by incorporating hardliners into the security sector and tolerating rising sectarian violence, including Alawite massacres and clashes in Druze areas. SAS’s rise threatens both domestic stability and the government’s diplomatic image. Damascus now faces a dangerous dilemma: purge the faction and risk fuelling further, broader radicalisation, or tolerate SAS’s presence and risk deepening the jihadist insurgency from within.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇳🇱 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 EUROPEAN STATES BUILD AD HOC COALITIONS AMID WANING U.S. COMMITMENT

Europe faces its most unstable security landscape in decades, driven by Russia's war in Ukraine and waning U.S. engagement. As far as European capitals are concerned, NATO, the EU, and the OSCE remain vital to regional security, but their limitations—especially consensus-driven bureaucracy and reliance on Washington—have led European states to explore more flexible alternatives. Sub-regional coalitions and ad hoc alliances are stepping in to fill the void, offering faster, targeted responses that bypass institutional constraints.

Coalitions of the willing

France and the UK have led efforts to unify over 30 states—including NATO and EU members as well as partners like Türkiye, Japan, and Australia—around military and diplomatic coordination for Ukraine. These coalitions are not meant to replace traditional institutions but to enhance credibility and responsiveness, particularly in the context of US disengagement. Initiatives range from weapons deliveries and F-16 pilot training to plans for a potential “reassurance force” in Ukraine, should a ceasefire hold.

Efforts like Germany’s brigade deployment to Lithuania, the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Group, and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force reflect Europe’s pivot to pragmatic defence cooperation. The Nordic-Baltic Eight, in particular, are integrating military planning to collectively deter Russian threats.

Uncertain futures, enduring improvisation

While plans for troop deployments to Ukraine remain aspirational and dependent on several improbable conditions—including Russian consent—such discussions signal a growing European readiness to act without the U.S.. Even if never realised, they strengthen joint planning and demonstrate commitment.

Conclusion

Though no single initiative can guarantee deterrence, these coalitions offer adaptable and politically feasible tools for crisis response. They are emerging as complements to the EU and NATO, reflecting Europe’s ambition to fashion a new, more self-reliant security architecture.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇱🇾 🇸🇾 Russia considers Libya fallback as Syrian collapse jeopardises Africa influence: The fall of the Assad’s regime in November 2024 threatens Russia’s strategic footprint in Syria, potentially disrupting its military logistics and power projection across Africa. With the new Syrian government opening to U.S. engagement and reviewing foreign basing rights, Moscow is eyeing Libya—particularly General Haftar’s eastern strongholds—as a backup hub. Syria’s Tartus and Khmeimim bases were central to Russian operations, enabling mercenary deployments and resource extraction through the Africa Corps. Losing these facilities would complicate supply routes to Mali, Niger, and the Central African Republic. While Russia maintains bases in Libya, challenges remain: rival foreign actors, limited infrastructure, and political volatility. Assad’s downfall also shakes confidence among African allies, as Russian-backed operations increasingly struggle against insurgents and regional power vacuums draw in both Moscow and Beijing.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇲🇱 🇧🇫 ICC urged to probe Wagner Group for war crimes and digital propaganda in West Africa: Legal experts have called on the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate Russia-linked Wagner Group mercenaries for war crimes in Mali and Burkina Faso. A brief from UC Berkeley’s Human Rights Center argues that Wagner’s online dissemination of graphic images—depicting torture and other atrocities—violates the Rome Statute’s protections of personal dignity and may constitute a war crime itself. The report links Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels to videos showing uniformed fighters committing atrocities, and suggests this digital propaganda serves to terrorise civilians and incite further violence. While Wagner's influence has continued under Russia’s new Africa Corps, experts warn that these videos could escalate regional instability and radicalisation. It is the first time such social media-based crimes have been formally presented to the ICC.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇪🇺 🇵🇸 Israel clashes with EU over review of trade agreement amid genocide in Gaza: Israel has sharply criticised the European Union after Brussels launched a review of its association agreement in response to alleged human rights violations in Gaza. In a submission seen by Politico, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government called the EU’s move “outrageous and indecent,” accusing it of bias and procedural unfairness. The European Commission initiated the review following growing pressure from member states, including long-time allies like the Netherlands, due to worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza. A leaked draft report reportedly suggests Israeli actions may have breached the agreement. As some EU countries push for suspension, Germany remains hesitant. The review coincides with heightened Middle East tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and could significantly impact EU–Israel relations moving forward.