Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today, Russia launches exercises near NATO borders as allied forces stage counter-drills; Algeria’s President Tebboune dismisses his prime minister amid a widening rift with France; and Sudan’s army claims advances against the RSF in North Kordofan.

At the centre of today’s coverage, Sri Lanka’s NPP faces a crucial test of unity, justice, and reform.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇬 Ethiopia inaugurates Grand Renaissance Dam amid Egyptian resistance: Ethiopia has officially inaugurated the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, Africa’s largest hydroelectric project. With a storage capacity of 74 billion cubic metres—nearly double that of China’s Three Gorges Dam—the GERD is poised to make Ethiopia a regional energy powerhouse, exporting power to neighbours and eyeing sales to the Middle East. The dam’s completion, funded largely by Ethiopians after international finance was blocked under Egyptian pressure, came at immense cost, with officials acknowledging as many as 10’000 workers may have died during construction. Egypt, reliant on the Nile for nearly all its water, continues to brand the GERD an existential threat. For many Ethiopians, however, the project’s political symbolism overshadows daily struggles with inflation and insecurity, tempering triumph with frustration.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 South Korea secures deal with U.S. over Hyundai raid detentions: Seoul says it has reached an agreement with Washington for the release of hundreds of South Korean nationals detained in last week’s immigration raid at Hyundai’s electric-vehicle plant in Georgia. Around 300 South Koreans were among 475 workers arrested, most on training or short-term visas. While no criminal charges have been filed, officials are still negotiating whether those released will depart voluntarily or face deportation, which carries entry bans. South Korea will dispatch a chartered plane once procedures are finalised, and Foreign Minister Cho Hyun will travel to Washington to prevent similar incidents. The raid, the largest single-site immigration action in U.S. history, has unsettled Seoul and cast a shadow over South Korea’s multibillion-dollar investments in American strategic industries.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇧🇾 🇵🇱 🇱🇹 Russia stages Zapad 2025 drills near NATO borders as allies launch counter-exercises: Russia will hold its Zapad 2025 military exercises with Belarus from September 12–16, the first since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Parts of the drills will unfold close to Poland and Lithuania, prompting NATO states to mount their own war games. Lithuanian officials warned of possible provocations, while Poland began its 30,000-strong Iron Defender-25 exercise. Though Moscow claims only 13,000 troops will participate, Western analysts estimate numbers far higher and suspect Russia will test NATO’s responses through cyberattacks, airspace incursions, or sabotage. Zapad drills, staged every four years, have previously simulated nuclear strikes and preceded Russia’s 2022 invasion. With forces deployed near the Suwałki Gap, NATO fears the line between exercise and escalation could blur, though Lithuania insists it can detect real threats.

4️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 🇾🇪 Microsoft confirms Red Sea cable damage disrupts Azure services: Microsoft has reported service disruptions to its Azure cloud platform caused by undersea cable cuts in the Red Sea. The incident has slowed internet traffic routed through the Middle East, though the company said it has rerouted much of the flow to minimise delays. NetBlocks and telecom providers in the region confirmed that multiple cables near Jeddah were damaged, affecting connectivity in countries including the UAE, India, and Pakistan. The cause remains unclear, but such cables are vulnerable to shipping activity or deliberate sabotage. Similar incidents in February disrupted links between Asia and Europe, amid warnings that Houthis might target Red Sea infrastructure. Beyond the region, Europe has also seen suspected sabotage of Baltic cables since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 Turkey weighs rapprochement with Patriotic Union of Kurdistan amid PKK disarmament: As the PKK moves unevenly toward disarmament, Ankara sees a chance to ease tensions and recalibrate its ties with Iraq’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Yet obstacles remain: the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and PJAK refuse to disarm, both groups closely linked to the PUK. Ankara also resents the PUK’s long association with Tehran and its support for the SDF, which Turkey equates with the PKK. Relations have been strained for years, reflected in recurring suspensions of flights to Sulaimaniyah and anger over alleged PUK-SDF cooperation. Still, recent symbolic gestures—such as a PKK faction laying down arms in PUK territory—signal tentative progress. For Turkey, any deeper rapprochement may hinge on balancing pressure with incentives, including potential openings to Washington.

Major Story

🇱🇰 🇺🇳 SRI LANKA’S NPP FACES TEST OF UNITY, JUSTICE, AND REFORM

The election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in September 2024, followed by the sweeping parliamentary victory of his National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, marked a historic turning point. Promising to end decades of corruption and abuse that fuelled Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic collapse, the NPP gained support as a force untainted by post-independence political elites. Dissanayake pledged to fight impunity, dismantle ethno-religious politics, and foster coexistence among Tamils, Muslims, and the Sinhalese majority. After his first year in power, the jury is still out. Minority communities, particularly in the north and east, see little progress on promised land returns, accountability, or demilitarisation.

Sixteen years after the disarmament and demobilisation of the Tamil Tigers, Colombo has yet to confront the war’s legacies. Mass graves continue to be unearthed, tens of thousands remain missing, and allegations of atrocities remain unaddressed. Tamil and Muslim communities face ongoing land seizures by state agencies and Buddhist nationalist factions, often backed by the military, while the north-east remains heavily militarised. Efforts at constitutional reform and meaningful devolution of power—central to Tamil demands—have repeatedly faltered under Sinhala nationalist pressure. Without addressing these root causes, reconciliation risks remaining rhetorical.

National Unity or Majoritarianism?

The NPP’s electoral success in Tamil-majority districts was notable, but partly reflected disillusionment with divided Tamil parties. Campaign promises of land restitution, prisoner releases, and repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act won attention, but delivery has lagged. Symbolic gestures, such as permitting Tamil war commemorations in 2024, contrasted with ongoing police surveillance of organisers. Cabinet appointments also fuel scepticism, with minimal Tamil and no Muslim representation. Statements from senior NPP figures rejecting “Tamil and Muslim nationalism” alongside Sinhala nationalism raise concerns that ethnic identity may simply be suppressed, rather than accommodated within an inclusive state.

The Accountability Dilemma and the International Dimension

Colombo has revived plans for a truth and reconciliation commission but insists it will not pursue prosecutions. This approach risks repeating past failures, offering truth without justice. The UN’s accountability project continues to collect evidence, underscoring international doubts about Colombo’s credibility. Limited progress has been made in emblematic cases of political killings, but wartime atrocities remain untouched. Without credible investigations, Tamil appeals to international arbiters for justice will intensify. The UN Human Rights Council remains central, pressing Colombo to deliver on rights and accountability. A new resolution to extend monitoring and the accountability project would maintain pressure while offering support for reform.

If the Dissanayake administration fails to confront entrenched majoritarianism, impunity, and militarisation, Sri Lanka risks repeating its past, Crisis Group writes. If it succeeds, it could chart a path toward inclusive governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 Tebboune dismisses Prime Minister as Algeria deepens rift with France: Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has dismissed Prime Minister Nadir Larbaoui, naming Industry Minister Sifi Ghrieb as interim premier. No reason was given, but the move followed criticism of the government’s slow response to a deadly Algiers bus crash that killed 18 people. The decision comes amid worsening tensions with France. On 6 August, President Emmanuel Macron urged Paris to suspend a 2013 visa-free travel accord for Algerian officials and tighten coordination with Schengen partners. Algiers retaliated by scrapping the deal and accusing the Institut français of espionage. Meanwhile, defence analysts reported that Moscow may soon deliver Su-34 fighter-bombers to Algeria under a 2019 contract for 42 aircraft, significantly boosting its long-range strike capacity.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudan armed forces claim gains in North Kordofan amid clashes with RSF: Sudan’s army said it had seized two strategic areas in North Kordofan during renewed clashes with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Military sources reported that troops recaptured Kazgeil and Fartangoul, south of the state capital El Obeid, as part of a wider push toward Darfur and to relieve the RSF siege on El Fasher. General Shams al-Din Kabbashi, the army’s deputy commander, visited the front lines to rally forces. The RSF denied the claims, asserting it destroyed an army convoy near Rahad al-Nuba and inflicted heavy casualties. The contested areas, lying on key roads linking North and South Kordofan, have repeatedly shifted hands, with the fighting worsening humanitarian conditions in nearby Dilling under prolonged RSF blockade.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

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The World: A Brief Introduction

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