Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Sudan's economic collapse

📰 Sudan's economic collapse

and Erdogan secures deal with Berlin and London

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 23, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, Sudanese opposition urges Saudi Arabia to revive peace efforts under the Jeddah Declaration, India’s ageing air fleet and procurement setbacks erode the IAF’s combat edge, and the United States secures dubious assurances in a secret detainee transfer deal with El Salvador.

Our lead story turns to Myanmar where China-backed normalisation risks entrenching military rule.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudan’s war risks collapsing economy by 42 percent and pushing millions deeper into poverty: Sudan’s civil war between the army and Rapid Support Forces has devastated the country, displacing over 14 million people, collapsing key services, and crippling the economy. Using a Social Accounting Matrix model, researchers estimate Sudan’s economy could shrink by up to 42% by 2025, falling from US$56.3 billion to US$32.4 billion. Industrial output may halve, agriculture and services contract by over a third, and nearly 4.6 million jobs could vanish. Poverty may surge, especially in rural areas, with millions more falling below the poverty line. The agrifood sector alone could lose a third of its value. Without peace and urgent international support, the economic damage may become irreversible, entrenching a humanitarian crisis with generational consequences.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇺🇸 🇪🇹 🇵🇸 Cairo rejects U.S. offer to trade GERD mediation for Palestinian displacement into Sinai: Egypt has reportedly rejected a U.S. proposal to mediate the Nile dam crisis in exchange for supporting Israel’s plan to relocate Palestinians into Rafah, near the Egypt-Gaza border. According to senior Egyptian diplomats, Washington offered a “decisive intervention” on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute if Cairo agreed to back Israel’s construction of a so-called “humanitarian city” in Rafah to hold Gaza’s population. Cairo sees the plan as a prelude to forced displacement into Egypt—an unacceptable red line. Although Egypt has long sought U.S. help in pressuring Ethiopia over GERD, officials insist that any deal must not compromise national security. President Trump has floated solving the GERD issue “quickly,” but President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reaffirmed Egypt’s opposition to resettling Palestinians in Sinai.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 Beijing urges Washington to reaffirm peaceful intentions on Taiwan issue: China’s leadership places strong emphasis on receiving credible reassurances from both the United States and Taiwan regarding the future of cross-strait relations. The U.S. should explicitly commit to peaceful coexistence with China, reject support for Taiwanese independence, and refrain from using reunification as a pawn in strategic rivalry. Meanwhile, Chinese officials should reaffirm that peaceful reunification remains the mainland’s preferred resolution, as emphasised in the 2022 White Paper issued after Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit. China should avoid entanglement in U.S.-led power competitions and instead promote ‘Track II’ dialogues with former officials and academics from Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party. Maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait is in the interest of all regional actors, and Beijing's consistent policy reflects a desire for long-term stability and unity.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇻 United States secures implausible assurances in secret detainee transfer deal with El Salvador: Declassified U.S. State Department documents reveal a non-binding diplomatic agreement with El Salvador to accept over 500 alleged gang members, including Venezuelans from Tren de Aragua and Salvadorans from MS-13. The deal includes vague pledges of humane treatment but lacks enforcement or monitoring mechanisms. Though framed as Salvadoran-led, language in the notes implies continued U.S. control over detainees' fate, raising legal concerns about constructive custody. The transfers—conducted under the Alien Enemies Act—appear to outsource abuse to El Salvador’s notorious CECOT prison. Legal experts argue the assurances function as a weak “fig leaf” shielding U.S. complicity in detainee mistreatment, underscoring how government lawyers retroactively sought cover for policies they could not—or would not—block. Human rights groups have condemned the arrangement as potentially amounting to enforced disappearance.

5️⃣ 🇨🇴 ELN drone strike kills Colombian soldiers in Catatumbo region: Three soldiers were killed and eight wounded when a drone strike hit a military patrol near El Carmen in Colombia’s Catatumbo region, according to the army. Authorities blamed the National Liberation Army (ELN), a guerrilla group active since the 1960s. The attack, one of the deadliest drone incidents recorded, reflects a growing trend of rebel groups using commercial drones rigged with explosives to target military units and rival factions. Colombia’s Defence Ministry reported 115 such strikes last year. Violence in rural zones has surged since the 2016 demobilisation of FARC, with armed groups now battling for control of illicit economies. Peace talks with the ELN were suspended in January after a wave of attacks left at least 80 dead and displaced tens of thousands.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇨🇳 CHINA-BACKED NORMALISATION RISKS ENTRENCHING MYANMAR’S MILITARY RULE

Myanmar’s military regime is gaining diplomatic breathing space as global power dynamics shift. China has stepped in to bolster the junta, discouraging collapse and encouraging neighbours to re-engage with Naypyitaw. Meanwhile, U.S. retreat from democracy promotion and waning Western resolve have softened regional resistance to normalising relations, despite ongoing military losses and worsening humanitarian conditions inside Myanmar.

Elections Will Deepen, Not Resolve, the Crisis

The junta’s planned elections, lacking credibility and held amid a collapsing state, are unlikely to ease Myanmar’s political deadlock. Instead, they risk sparking renewed violence as the military suppresses opposition and resistance groups seek to disrupt the vote. While these polls may offer diplomatic cover for some governments to legitimise military rule, they will do little to reduce fighting or address the root causes of the conflict.

Humanitarian Needs Demand Innovation

As aid budgets shrink globally, Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis is intensifying. Traditional assistance channels are faltering, especially in ethnic-controlled areas. Donors must explore creative mechanisms—leveraging international financial institutions, targeting transnational crime funding, and supporting low-cost, high-impact interventions such as community health and non-state governance. Without such innovation, millions will remain underserved and regional spillover effects will worsen.

Preventing a Dangerous Normalisation

Despite its battlefield setbacks, the regime is finding new lifelines through international realignment. But elections will not confer legitimacy—only deeper instability. With little chance of diplomatic breakthroughs, the focus should remain on preserving coordination, denying recognition to military rule, and addressing Myanmar’s deepening humanitarian emergency with strategic flexibility and moral clarity.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇸🇦 Sudanese opposition urges Saudi Arabia to anchor peace talks in Jeddah Declaration: Sudan’s Forces for Freedom and Change – Democratic Bloc (FFC-DB) has urged Saudi Arabia to ensure the 2023 Jeddah Declaration forms the basis of any future ceasefire or security accord. The appeal came during a meeting with Saudi Ambassador Ali Hassan bin Jaafar, ahead of Washington-hosted talks involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, and the UK. FFC-DB spokesperson Mohamed Zakaria stressed the declaration’s alignment with international humanitarian law, while the bloc’s leaders, including Minni Arko Minawi, presented a roadmap for peace. Although brokered by Riyadh and Washington last May to protect civilians and facilitate aid, the Jeddah Declaration has yet to be honoured by Sudan’s military or the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 India’s ageing air fleet and defence procurement woes erode IAF’s combat edge: The Indian Air Force (IAF) is facing a growing crisis, with operational capacity reduced to 31 squadrons—far below the sanctioned 42—amid rising aircraft crashes, outdated jets, and stalled procurement. The Tejas fighter project remains delayed, Jaguars continue flying despite deadly accidents, and MiG-21s—dubbed "flying coffins"—are only now being phased out. Procurement missteps, like declining Lockheed Martin’s F-16 offer, and HAL’s chronic production delays have compounded the IAF’s challenges. Despite a sizable defence budget, spending on wages eclipses capital investment. Russia, once a concessional supplier, now offers weapons at full cost, while India’s Rafale purchases remain limited. Without sweeping reforms, the IAF will struggle to maintain an edge against Pakistan and China, hindered by obsolete equipment and an ailing defence industrial base.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 President Erdogan expects swift approval of Eurofighter jet sale from Germany and Britain: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that both Britain and Germany are showing a favourable attitude toward Turkey’s purchase of Eurofighter Typhoon jets, signalling hopes for a swift agreement. Built by a consortium involving Germany, Britain, Italy, and Spain—and represented by Airbus, BAE Systems, and Leonardo—the Eurofighter deal has been under negotiation for months. Erdogan, speaking to reporters after his visit to northern Cyprus, said he was encouraged by recent talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “God willing, I believe we will receive our jet planes as soon as possible,” he said, expressing optimism that Turkey can soon finalise the deal.