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Today's coverage revisits Libya, where the central bank crisis is straining the newly forged rapport between Egypt and Turkey. 

In the Americas, protesters have stormed the Senate in an effort to block a contentious judicial reform. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing are engaging in their most high-profile talks since the fallout from Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan, with a focus on stabilising their relationship. 

Our main story observes the geopolitics of Sudan's war, examining the economic impact, foreign involvement, and the risks of fragmentation in what could be the world's deadliest conflict.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇽 Anti-judicial reform protestors storm Mexican senate: Hundreds of protesters stormed Mexico’s Senate, forcing lawmakers to temporarily recess as they debated a controversial judiciary reform. The break came after the ruling Morena party secured enough votes for the proposal when an opposition senator switched sides, intensifying public anger after weeks of protests by judicial staff and law students. The reform, backed by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has sparked concern over potential threats to judicial independence, as it would introduce elected judges—a move critics argue could weaken the system of checks and balances. Protesters, feeling ignored by lawmakers, forced their way into the Senate chamber using pipes and chains, with some entering to stop the vote. "The judiciary won’t fall!" they shouted, waving Mexican flags and anti-reform signs. Opposition senators joined them in the protest, and cheers erupted outside when the recess was announced.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 Police arrest senior opposition party members, protestors demand Imran Khan’s release: The overnight arrest of several legislators and leaders from former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party is likely to spark further tensions between the opposition and the government, analysts warn. The arrests took place late Monday, shortly after PTI held a rally on the outskirts of Islamabad demanding Khan’s release from prison. Khan, who was jailed in August last year on multiple charges, has seen many of his convictions overturned or suspended, but he remains imprisoned as trials in other cases continue. Human rights organisations have condemned Khan’s detention, labelling it "arbitrary." Tensions have escalated following recent statements from the government and military suggesting Khan might face trial in a military court, a move that has further inflamed PTI supporters.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Washington and Beijing engage in high-level military talks aimed at stabilising relations: The United States and China have held high-level commander talks for the first time, aiming to stabilise military ties and avoid misunderstandings, particularly in the South China Sea.  The US seeks to reopen regular military communication channels after relations hit a new low following the downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon last year. Adm. Sam Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command held a video call with Gen. Wu Yanan of China’s southern theatre, discussing regional tensions and urging China to reconsider its "escalatory tactics." This meeting follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent talks in Beijing. US and Chinese troops are also participating in joint military exercises in Brazil, their first collaboration since 2016, after most military engagements were paused following Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in 2022.  

4️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇹🇷 🇱🇾 Libyan central bank fallout threatens Cairo-Ankara rapport: A new alliance between Egypt and Turkey, formed to resolve long-standing Middle Eastern disputes, is facing its first test in Libya’s escalating political crisis over control of the country’s oil wealth. The two countries’ fallout began after Egypt’s 2013 coup, which saw President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi ousted Mohamed Morsi, a key ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After nearly three years of improving relations, Sisi and Erdoğan met in Ankara last week, signing over 30 agreements to boost trade, driven by economic concerns and the Gaza war. However, analysts warn that disagreements over how to resolve Libya’s internal divisions could undermine this cooperation. Libya has been split between eastern and western factions since 2011, with Egypt backing eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar and Turkey supporting the Tripoli-based government. The current crisis was sparked by the dismissal of central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who fled to Turkey, claiming threats to his life. His removal has triggered a standoff, freezing oil revenues and foreign exchange transactions, as eastern Libya demands his return, calling the move unconstitutional. Global banks, under US pressure, have frozen many central bank transactions, while western powers, despite Kabir’s flaws, oppose his removal, viewing him as a stabilizing figure. Without consensus on Libya, the Egypt-Turkey alliance may struggle to endure.

5️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany implements new border controls, breaching Schengen free movement rights: Germany’s decision to extend border controls across all of its land borders appears to be politically motivated, legally questionable, and risks undermining the EU’s cherished principle of free movement, potentially straining EU unity. Berlin announced that existing controls at the Austrian border (in place since 2015) and at its borders with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland (implemented last year) would be expanded next week to include France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said the measure aims to reduce migration and counter the risks of Islamist terrorism and serious crime. The move comes after a series of fatal knife attacks involving asylum seekers—the latest in Solingen last month—shortly before key regional elections in eastern Germany where the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains. Migration is also the top voter concern in Brandenburg, which holds elections soon, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party expected to trail the AfD, adding pressure ahead of next year’s federal elections.

Major Story

🇸🇩🇦🇪🇷🇺🇺🇦 THE GEOPOLITICS OF SUDAN’S DESTRUCTIVE WAR

Background

Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a brutal conflict between two rival factions. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by de facto president General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are clashing with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, whose forces are accused of ethnic cleansing.

The two men had once allied during the 2019 uprising that ousted longtime president Omar al-Bashir but are now fighting over control. U.S. officials estimate the conflict has claimed 150,000 lives. Both sides face accusations of war crimes, and the UN warns of an unparalleled displacement crisis, with over 10 million people—one-fifth of the population—forced from their homes. More than half of Sudan's 49 million citizens are facing acute food insecurity, with conditions worsening daily.

This conflict—potentially the world's deadliest—shows no signs of abating. It has drawn in regional and global actors, each vying for influence in a country rich in gold and strategically located near the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Yet, as wars in Ukraine and Gaza dominate global attention, Sudan's devastating crisis remains largely overlooked, despite its far-reaching consequences.

"We're now 16 months into this conflict, and we don't see an end in sight," says UN humanitarian chief Clementine Nkweta-Salami. "What we see is fighting, hunger, and disease closing in."

Foreign Involvement

Sudan's Red Sea location, near vital trade routes like the Suez Canal, has attracted involvement from countries like Russia and regional powers, accused of fueling the conflict with money and arms.

The geopolitical topography in Sudan is tangled, with alliances and rivalries shaping the conflict. Ukrainian pilots reportedly enjoy luxuries alongside SAF commanders in Port Sudan, Russian troops are also training al-Burhan's forces, according to Sudanese intelligence. Meanwhile, Sudanese generals claim the RSF has recruited "mercenaries" from neighbouring countries; Central African Republic, Chad, and South Sudan.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have reported that weapons from countries like China, Iran, Turkiye, Russia, and the UAE are proliferating in Sudan, fueling calls for a broader arms embargo. The SAF is partially funded through gold exports and what's left of its once-vast business empire, bolstered by Russian oil.

Conversely, the RSF is believed to be supported by Hemedti's gold business and arms from the UAE. A UN panel has presented "credible" evidence suggesting Abu Dhabi's involvement, despite the UAE's insistence on its "complete neutrality" and rejection of accusations as "baseless." Analysts argue that the UAE's support for the RSF is rooted in fears that al-Burhan is too close to Islamist ideologies, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, a prominent force during al-Bashir's rule.

Sudan's own resources are at significant risk. The conflict has derailed an IMF-backed reform program and worsened Khartoum's ability to repay creditors, including China. Sudan's economy shrank by 40% last year, according to Jibril Ibrahim, finance minister for al-Burhan-controlled institutions, deepening the country’s financial crisis at a critical time when debt relief negotiations were ongoing.

A Splintered State

Sudan’s long history of military coups—at least 17 since 1956—has led many to question the legitimacy of its current leaders. "We don’t want to see any military uniforms in power," says activist Duaa Tariq from Khartoum, while others liken the choice between leaders to "choosing between cholera and malaria."

There are fears that Sudan could further fracture, as Suliman Arcua “Minni” Minnawi, Darfur’s governor and former rebel leader, anticipates that if Hemedti fails to take control, he might establish a rival government in Darfur. This situation resembles Libya, where rival militias support two competing governments, in Tripoli and Benghazi.

US Special envoy to Sudan, Mike Perriello, warns that Sudan risks becoming a “giant Somalia,” where internal conflict led to anarchy in the 1990s. "The parties currently lack the will to end the fighting and are instead escalating the conflict," he says.

Kholood Khair from Confluence Advisory adds: “Neither side is interested in ending the war until they achieve their goals.”

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇱 Canada suspends some arms sales to Israel: Canada has suspended 30 permits for arms sales to Israel and cancelled a contract with a US company to sell Quebec-made ammunition to the Israeli army, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly announced on Tuesday. Joly stressed that Canadian-made ammunition, produced by the Canadian branch of US-based General Dynamics, will not be sold or shipped to other countries for resale to Israel. This decision was praised by the National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM), which welcomed the clear stance against any loopholes in Canada’s weapons ban on Israel. The sale of Canadian arms through intermediary countries to Israel has been controversial. Joly reiterated that such transactions are explicitly prohibited, emphasising that no arms or components will be sent to Gaza, regardless of how or where they are shipped. However, the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs expressed concern, viewing Joly’s statement as a "disturbing shift" in Canadian policy, according to the Globe and Mail.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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