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📰 Sudan war worsens

📰 Sudan war worsens

and Trump slaps new tariffs

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
February 04, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

In Europe, Germany has rejected an immigration bill backed by the AfD, Belgium is urging the EU to suspend its mineral deal with Rwanda, and the UK is considering pausing foreign aid to Kigali. The EU braces for economic fallout as President Trump imposes tariffs on the bloc and several other key trade partners. Beyond Europe, conflicts have sharply escalated in Sudan and the West Bank.

Today’s main story examines the legal implications of President Trump’s reported plan to dissolve USAID.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 🇨🇦 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 Trump places tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China: Trump has reignited trade tensions by imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China while targeting the EU with sector-specific measures. Justifying these moves with concerns over immigration, fentanyl trafficking, and the trade deficit, he positions tariffs as central to his economic and geopolitical strategy. Unlike his first term, where trade conflicts escalated gradually, his aggressive approach has already unsettled markets. Historically, tariffs played a key fiscal role, but post-WWII their relevance declined—yet Trump views them as both a revenue source and a tool for international leverage. His previous tariff policies failed to revive manufacturing jobs and instead triggered retaliatory actions that harmed U.S. industries. Analysts warn of rising inflation and price hikes in fuel, automobiles, and consumer goods, with experts cautioning that continued escalation may do more harm than good.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇧🇪 🇪🇺 Belgium presses EU for Rwanda mineral deal suspension, UK ponders suspending aid: The EU faces growing calls to suspend its 2024 minerals agreement with Rwanda, which has been accused of exacerbating the conflict in DR Congo. This follows the capture of Goma by Rwanda-backed rebels, escalating tensions and prompting fears of a wider war. Belgium, alongside several European lawmakers, argues that the deal, which boosts Rwanda’s raw material exports, overlooks Rwanda’s role in supporting the M23 rebels in eastern DRC. Critics contend that the EU must reassess its support, as the agreement risks enabling the exploitation of conflict minerals and undermining regional stability. Humanitarian groups and several governments urge immediate action to prevent further complicity in the crisis.

3️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇲🇾 🇨🇱 🇮🇱 Delegations from nine countries form ‘Hague Group’ to pursue sanctions against Israel: Belize, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Namibia, Senegal, South Africa, and Malaysia have formed "The Hague Group," a coalition defending international legal institutions against mounting threats, particularly those targeting the ICC over Israel’s actions in Gaza. The coalition has pledged diplomatic, legal, and economic measures to hold Israel accountable for alleged war crimes. Leaders condemned Western double standards and reaffirmed support for Palestinian statehood, citing international law as the foundation of their stance. Meanwhile, the U.S. under Trump has intensified its pro-Israel policies, lifting sanctions on Israeli settlers and approving arms transfers, while Congress considers penalising those cooperating with ICC investigations.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 ‘DeepSeek’ the latest chapter in the U.S.–China tech rivalry: China’s DeepSeek has disrupted the AI landscape by unveiling highly efficient models that rival top-tier offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic, despite operating with significantly fewer resources. The release of its reasoning-focused R1 model, followed by a multimodal version on January 28, has sparked excitement among researchers and concern among investors. This development underscores the increasing role of AI in geopolitical competition, as technological dominance shapes economic and strategic influence. DeepSeek’s rapid progress highlights China’s growing capabilities in AI innovation, intensifying the US-China tech rivalry and challenging American supremacy in the sector.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel launches Operation “Iron Walls,” over 80 residential buildings in Jenin destroyed: Israeli forces demolished at least 21 buildings, including around 80 apartments, in the Jenin refugee camp on Sunday. Bashir Matahin, the director of public relations for Jenin Municipality, described seeing thick smoke as explosions ravaged the camp, which had already been evacuated by residents fleeing the ongoing Israeli assault on the occupied West Bank. The Israeli military confirmed the demolitions, claiming the buildings were used as "terrorist infrastructure." Despite no casualties reported by Sunday evening, the scale of destruction was immense. This attack marks the 13th consecutive day of Israel’s siege on Jenin, with 26 Palestinians killed since the operation began.

Major Story

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP’S PLANNED DISSOLUTION OF USAID: A LEGAL ANALYSIS

Reports emerged on January 31, 2025, suggesting that President Trump may seek to dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through an Executive Order (E.O.) and consolidate its functions within the State Department. However, this proposal raises serious legal concerns, as the president does not have unilateral authority to abolish or reassign the agency's functions without congressional approval.

Legal Boundaries of Executive Authority

USAID was established by President John F. Kennedy’s E.O. in 1961, with its current status as an independent agency codified by the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998. This statute explicitly states that only Congress can dissolve or reassign USAID’s functions, requiring a reorganization plan to be submitted by the president for approval. Additionally, recent provisions in the FY24 State and Foreign Operations Appropriations Act mandate congressional consultation for any significant reorganization or downsizing of USAID.

Potential for Reform

While there are policy arguments for restructuring USAID’s relationship with the State Department, any attempt to dissolve or consolidate the agency without congressional consent would be contrary to law, writes Just Security’s Tess Bridgeman. The Trump administration may pursue a legislative solution to restructure foreign aid programs, but unilateral action would risk undermining U.S. foreign policy objectives and damage the effectiveness of U.S. foreign assistance.

Should President Trump proceed with this E.O., litigation and congressional oversight are likely, which may delay or challenge the move’s legality.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇸🇾 Mohamed bin Salman, Ahmed al-Sharaa share first bilateral exchange: Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in his first international visit since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, state media reported. Following their discussions, Sharaa stated that Saudi Arabia was committed to supporting Syria’s reconstruction, emphasizing a “genuine desire” to help rebuild the country. Gulf nations, including Qatar, have signaled interest in financing Syria’s recovery, with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani urging an inclusive government to ensure stability. Since Assad’s removal, Syria’s new leadership has engaged in extensive diplomatic outreach, with Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani attending global forums, including the World Economic Forum in Davos.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 AfD–backed immigration bill rejected by Bundestag: Germany’s parliament has rejected a conservative-backed immigration bill, supported by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to become Germany’s next chancellor, failed to secure the bill's passage despite enlisting AfD support, with the vote falling 350 to 338. Merz's attempt to align with the far-right sparked backlash, including from former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who accused him of reneging on his pledge to avoid cooperation with the AfD. The bill, aimed at tightening immigration policies, faced opposition from Chancellor Scholz’s SPD, while public protests against the alliance also erupted. Immigration has become a focal point in the upcoming election after recent violent incidents linked to asylum seekers.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 RSF shelling kills over 50 in Omdurman, airstrikes hit Khartoum proper: Artillery shelling and air strikes killed at least 56 people in greater Khartoum, marking the latest violence in Sudan's ongoing war. The conflict between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, continues to devastate the capital. In Omdurman, shelling by the RSF targeted a busy market, killing 54 people and injuring 158, overwhelming local hospitals. While the RSF denied responsibility, the attack caused "utter carnage" at Al-Nao Hospital. Meanwhile, in Khartoum, an airstrike on an RSF-controlled area killed two civilians. The war has displaced millions, left Sudan’s infrastructure in ruins, and caused widespread famine, with over 106,000 people in Khartoum facing severe hunger.