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📰 Sudanese army breakthrough

📰 Sudanese army breakthrough

and Lukashenko claims victory

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 28, 2025

Hello there,

Today, critical battles in Sudan and the DR Congo have seen the frontlines shift dramatically, while in Palestine, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that Hamas' armed wing has fully replenished its ranks. Israel has also ordered the UNRWA to halt all operations in East Jerusalem, and former President Trump has suggested the mass relocation of Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt.

Elsewhere, the CSIS highlights China’s growing dominance in global manufacturing, and the dispute over U.S. deportation flights to Colombia simmers.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇰🇪 Great Lakes crisis deepens as Goma reportedly falls to M23, DRC terminates Rwanda ties: The UN Security Council has called on M23 insurgents to halt their offensive near Goma and urged "external forces" to withdraw immediately from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kenya announced that DRC and Rwanda will meet within 48 hours for an East African Community summit to address the crisis. Meanwhile, DRC’s foreign minister accused Rwanda of a "declaration of war," citing troop reinforcements for M23 rebels. The UN reported 500–1,000 Rwandan soldiers entering the region and confirmed mass evacuations of sites housing 300,000 displaced individuals. In response, the DRC urged the Security Council to impose sanctions on Rwandan officials involved in escalating the conflict.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF now controls Omdurman, Bahri after breaking RSF siege on Khartoum HQ: On Friday, the Sudanese army announced it had broken the siege on its Khartoum headquarters, imposed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since the war began in April 2023. Troops from Bahri and Omdurman joined forces, lifting the blockade and regaining control of the key Jaili oil refinery, previously held by the RSF. The army's success marks a significant victory, providing access to supplies and military reinforcements in Khartoum. While the situation remains difficult to verify due to a communications blackout, this breakthrough follows months of fighting and ongoing conflict in Sudan, where the war has displaced millions and caused widespread devastation. The military now holds an advantage, though the RSF continues to control parts of Khartoum North.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israel orders UNRWA to cease all East Jerusalem operations: Israel has instructed UNRWA—the UN's vital humanitarian organ for Palestinians—to vacate all its premises in occupied East Jerusalem and cease operations by 30 January 2025. This directive contradicts international law, as Israel, a signatory to the UN’s General Convention on Privileges and Immunities, is legally bound to respect UN premises and their inviolability. Under this convention, UNRWA's properties in East Jerusalem are immune from search, requisition, or any form of interference. Claims by Israeli authorities that UNRWA has no right to occupy these premises are baseless and promote anti-UNRWA rhetoric, endangering the agency’s personnel and facilities.

4️⃣ 🇧🇾 🇪🇺 Landslide election win for Lukashenko, EU foreign policy chief questions legitimacy: Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has claimed victory in a widely discredited presidential election, securing 87.6% of the vote according to official exit polls. This marks his seventh term in power after more than 30 years of rule. Opposition candidates on the ballot were loyal to Lukashenko, with Communist Party leader Sergei Syrankov declaring there was “no alternative” to him. The election has been condemned by the EU, U.K., and U.S., who refuse to recognize Lukashenko’s government as legitimate. Following mass protests in 2020, brutally suppressed with support from Russia, public dissent within Belarus has been silenced.

5️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇺🇸 Colombia president Petro backs down on U.S. deportation flight ban: The U.S. and Colombia averted a trade conflict after president Gustavo Petro agreed to accept military flights carrying deported migrants, ending a standoff with the Trump administration. The U.S. had threatened tariffs and sanctions on Colombia for refusing to accept such flights as part of Trump's immigration crackdown. Following Colombia's agreement, the White House confirmed it would not impose penalties, while Colombia's foreign minister said the impasse had been resolved. Despite this, tensions rose as both countries exchanged retaliatory measures, with Colombia increasing tariffs on U.S. imports, while Petro emphasized the importance of treating migrants with dignity, insisting they should be repatriated on civilian planes rather than military aircraft.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 CFR POSITS SEQUENCE FOR RUSSIA–UKRAINE SETTLEMENT

President Donald Trump faces a challenging task in negotiating a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, balancing U.S. interests and his self-declared reputation as a peacemaker. While Kyiv, facing worsening conditions, may be more amenable to negotiation, Russian President Vladimir Putin, bolstered by battlefield gains and a resilient economy, remains steadfast in his position. The core challenge lies in convincing Putin that continued aggression will lead to economic and military strain, writes the Council on Foreign Relations’ Thomas Graham.

Four Key Areas of Action

Graham identifies four critical areas where pressure and incentives can be strategically applied to Russia. First, it is essential to create a unified vision for Ukraine's future that aligns both the West and Ukraine. This vision must be supported by ongoing military, financial, and political aid to strengthen Ukraine’s defense and facilitate its integration into the Euro-Atlantic community. Concurrently, efforts to resist Russia must be ramped up, including enhancing sanctions, boosting weapons production, and increasing pressure on Russia’s allies. To encourage Russia to engage in negotiations, the West should offer the prospect of normalized diplomatic relations in exchange for key concessions, such as ceasing aggressive actions and upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty.

A Complex Settlement Process

Any resolution will require prolonged, phased negotiations. The settlement must address European security as a whole, with direct talks between Washington and Moscow at the forefront, bypassing Kyiv temporarily. Key elements could include a ceasefire, non-bloc status for Ukraine, and territorial adjustments while maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Diplomacy’s Role

Success will rely on presidential leadership from both Trump and Putin, with detailed negotiations conducted by envoys. This strategy, combined with coordinated efforts among the U.S., Ukraine, and European allies, is essential for a lasting peace in the region.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 CSIS charts China’s manufacturing hegemony: China's manufacturing boom has driven decades of export-led economic growth, outpacing foreign competitors and sparking increased support for tariffs in the United States and Europe. Leveraging low-cost labor, economies of scale, and substantial state backing, China's net exports of manufactured goods have surged over 25-fold in two decades. While consumers in developed nations have benefited from cheaper goods, domestic manufacturers have struggled to compete, fueling calls for tariffs and industrial policies to revive local industries. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is intensifying efforts to position China as a dominant global force in advanced high-tech manufacturing.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Al-Qassam has recruited additional 15’000 fedayeen, says U.S. intelligence: Hamas' armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, has recruited approximately 15,000 fighters since the conflict with Israel began, according to two U.S. congressional sources familiar with intelligence reports. Former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that after Israeli operations, Hamas fedayeen often regroup and re-emerge due to the lack of alternative governance in the region. Despite the ongoing destruction from Israeli offensives, Hamas is swiftly re-establishing security measures and working to restore essential services within the enclave.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇯🇴 🇪🇬 🇺🇸 Trump suggests mass removal of Palestinians to Jordan, Egypt: President Donald Trump's suggestion to resettle Palestinians from Gaza in Egypt and Jordan was swiftly rejected by both countries and Palestinians themselves. Trump proposed relocating Gaza's 2.3 million displaced people to neighboring Arab nations, describing Gaza as a “demolition site” following Israel’s 15-month onslaught. Jordan’s foreign minister and Egypt’s foreign ministry both condemned the plan, warning it could worsen regional conflict and undermine peacebuilding efforts. Some of Israel’s far-right coalition members supported the idea, but human rights groups warned it would constitute ethnic cleansing.