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📰 Sweden’s battleships deployed

📰 Sweden’s battleships deployed

and Croatia’s Milanovic wins big

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
January 13, 2025

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Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

In Europe, incumbent Milanovic secures victory in the Croatian election, while Sweden makes a historic move by deploying battleships to the Baltic Sea. In the Middle East, the U.S., UK, and Israel administer a new wave of deadly attacks in Yemen, and the RSF loses control of a key city in Sudan.

Today's main story centers on the U.S. House of Representatives' controversial move—one that could undermine international norms—by voting to sanction the International Criminal Court.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudan armed forces retake city of Wad Madani: The Sudanese armed forces (SAF) and allied groups have reclaimed control of Wad Madani in Gezira state, expelling the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after more than a year. The army announced its entry into the strategic city, pledging to eliminate remaining RSF resistance, and released footage showing soldiers in Wad Madani. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, acknowledged the setback but accused the army of relying on Iranian drones and Tigrayan fighters. Wad Madani’s location at critical supply route junctions and its proximity to Khartoum underscores its importance in the ongoing conflict, which has displaced millions and led to famine in parts of Sudan since fighting erupted in April 2023.

2️⃣ 🇸🇪 🇪🇪 🇫🇮 Sweden deploys battleships to Baltic Sea in first ever armed deployment in its immediate vicinity: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared that Sweden is “neither at war nor at peace” as he announced the deployment of armed forces to the Baltic Sea to bolster surveillance amid suspected sabotage of undersea cables. Speaking at the Folk och Försvars conference in Sälen, he warned of hybrid threats and “proxy wars” targeting Sweden and its neighbours. Sweden will send an ASC 890 reconnaissance aircraft and three warships to support NATO’s efforts to monitor critical infrastructure and Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Highlighting recent incidents, including cable damage between Finland and Estonia, Kristersson stated that NATO is assisting with investigations and emphasized that safeguarding peace requires readiness for war.

3️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 Manila deploys coastguard to counter Chinese naval presence: On Sunday, the Philippines announced it had deployed a coast guard ship to confront Chinese patrol vessels operating in the disputed South China Sea. China claims most of the waterway, despite a 2016 international ruling rejecting its claims, and tensions between Philippine and Chinese ships have escalated. The Philippines has been closely monitoring Chinese ships that recently came within 111 km of Luzon, aiming to challenge efforts to normalize these deployments. Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela emphasized that the deployment was intended to prevent China from altering the region’s status quo and to curb what he described as “bullying behavior,” as Chinese vessels continued their patrols between December 30 and January 11.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Over 5’000 people killed or missing after Israel’s North Gaza siege: The Israeli siege on northern Gaza has resulted in around 5,000 Palestinians dead or missing and 9,500 injured following relentless attacks over 100 days, according to medical sources. Gaza’s Media Office described the campaign as an act of ethnic cleansing and mass displacement, devastating the region. Kamal Adwan Hospital, a critical facility, was destroyed in late December, with its director's fate still unknown. Amid talks of mediated agreements, Israeli politicians have openly discussed settlement plans for northern Gaza, while strikes continue, killing Palestinians in Jabalia and other areas.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇸🇦 🇸🇾 EU, Arab diplomats convene in Saudi Arabia for Syria talks: Speaking in Riyadh ahead of a diplomatic summit with Syria's new foreign minister, Kallas emphasized that any lifting of sanctions would depend on the interim Syrian government’s inclusivity, governance reforms, and rejection of radicalization. The summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia following President Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in a swift offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), focused on humanitarian aid and sanctions relief. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan urged lifting sanctions to support Syria's recovery, while Germany proposed retaining penalties on Assad allies linked to war crimes. The U.S. also issued a six-month sanctions exemption to facilitate humanitarian aid and energy transactions.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTES TO SANCTION INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT

On January 9, 2025, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 243-140 to pass the "Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act," sanctioning foreign individuals involved in investigating, arresting, or prosecuting U.S. citizens or citizens of allied nations, including Israel. This bill was introduced in response to the ICC’s issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over their involvement in the Gaza conflict. The vote highlights the strong bipartisan support for Israel, with 45 Democrats joining Republicans in supporting the bill.

ICC's Response

The ICC condemned the U.S. sanctions, warning they could undermine the court's ability to deliver justice to victims of atrocities across the globe. The court reiterated its commitment to judicial independence and criticized efforts to interfere with its operations. This marks a continuation of tensions between the U.S. and the ICC, with the Trump administration previously imposing sanctions in 2020 over investigations into U.S. war crimes in Afghanistan.

Implications and Future Steps

The sanctions, if enacted, could target individuals supporting the court's activities. ICC President Tomoko Akane cautioned that these measures would jeopardize the court's functioning and its ability to prosecute international crimes. This also highlights a double standard that undermines the so-called "international rules-based order." By tacitly legitimising the commission of war crimes and enabling similar actions by other states, it not only weakens the credibility of global norms but also offers little incentive for U.S. rivals—particularly Russia and China—to adhere to these international standards.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇷 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Milanovic wins Croatia election: Incumbent Croatian President Zoran Milanović has claimed a resounding victory in Sunday’s presidential runoff. Milanović defeated Dragan Primorac, the candidate of Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s HDZ party, by a wide margin of 74.7% to 25.3%. Known for his contrasting stances—both pro-Moscow and pro-EU—Milanović oversaw Croatia’s 2013 EU accession as prime minister and remains one of the country’s most popular politicians. His victory, backed by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), dealt a blow to Plenković’s HDZ, already weakened by a corruption scandal involving a former health minister and tensions with the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. With inflation soaring and labor shortages mounting, Milanović’s win signals growing dissatisfaction with Croatia's long-dominant HDZ.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇾🇪 U.S, UK, Israel administer new wave of deadly attacks in Yemen: On Friday, Israel, the U.S., and Britain launched their first coordinated airstrikes on Ansarullah targets in Yemen, according to reports. Al-Masirah TV, a Houthi-affiliated channel, confirmed multiple strikes near Sanaa’s Al-Sabeen Square during a pro-Palestine rally. Additional attacks hit the port city of Al-Hudaydah and the Haziz Central Power Station in Sanaa, causing damage and injuring a worker. The Israeli military confirmed its involvement, targeting Houthi military infrastructure, including sites in the Al-Hudaydah and Ras Isa ports. The strikes followed Houthi missile and drone attacks on the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and Israeli targets in retaliation for Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.