Hello and welcome back. 

Poland races ahead with a major rearmament drive even as foreign defence contractors capture most of the gains; President Ramaphosa warns that disinformation poses a growing threat to South Africa; and Qatar pledges unlimited gas supplies to Egypt amid a stalled deal with Israel.

Our main story turns to Syria, which marks one year since Assad’s fall, as sanctions recede and urgent debates over justice and accountability move to the forefront.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thailand, Cambodia clashes spread along contested border: Deadly clashes have erupted again along the Thailand–Cambodia frontier, with both governments accusing each other of violating the US-brokered ceasefire signed six weeks ago. At least seven Cambodian civilians and three Thai soldiers have been killed, tens of thousands have been displaced, and both sides now claim they are “defending sovereignty” as the conflict spreads across multiple provinces. 

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇶🇦 🇪🇬 🇹🇷 Hamas offers disarmament in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza: Hamas has told regional mediators it is prepared to freeze all offensive activity from Gaza for up to a decade, and even bury its weapons, if Israel fully withdraws, proposing a long-term hudna guaranteed by Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. With no clear plan for the international stabilisation force envisioned under President Trump’s proposal, the broader political and security framework for any lasting agreement remains uncertain.

3️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇰🇷 🇺🇸 Poland accelerates rearmament while foreign suppliers reap rewards: Poland is pouring unprecedented sums into tanks, jets, air defences and drones to deter Russia, but most of the windfall is flowing to U.S. and South Korean defence giants rather than domestic industry. Warsaw argues it must buy off-the-shelf systems to rebuild rapidly after sending much of its Soviet-era arsenal to Ukraine, yet decades of underinvestment and missing high-end technologies mean Polish firms can absorb only a fraction of the spending. 

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇧🇭 GCC escalates pressure on Iran over disputed Gulf islands: Gulf Arab leaders have sharply intensified their challenge to Iran’s control of the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb islands, declaring Tehran’s sovereignty claims “null and void” and urging arbitration at the ICJ. Iran has rejected the demands as illegitimate and warned against testing its territorial “red lines,” but despite the fiery rhetoric, the dispute is expected to remain confined to diplomatic fora.

5️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Afghanistan must decide between ties with Pakistan and TPP, says Islamabad: Pakistan’s newly appointed armed forces chief, General Asim Munir, has warned Kabul it must choose between ties with Islamabad or continued backing for the Pakistani Taliban, which Islamabad blames for a surge in deadly attacks. Speaking at the launch of Pakistan’s new joint military command, Munir said the message was unequivocal: support for the TTP will carry consequences.

Major Story

🇸🇾 SYRIA MARKS ONE YEAR SINCE ASSAD’S FALL AS SANCTIONS EASE AND JUSTICE DEBATES INTENSIFY

Syria marked the first anniversary of the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime with nationwide celebrations, prayers, and military parades, closing the chapter on 14 years of civil war. Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa led prayers at Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque, urging Syrians to unite in rebuilding a sovereign, stable, and just state. Congratulations arrived from France, the UAE, and Qatar, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres hailed the resilience of Syrians and framed the year ahead as a chance to heal divisions and rebuild shattered communities.

In the northeast, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi also welcomed the anniversary and reaffirmed commitment to a stalled March integration agreement with Damascus, despite earlier security-driven restrictions on public celebrations in SDF-held areas.

Sanctions relief with conditions attached

Momentum toward economic normalisation accelerated as the US Senate approved a defence bill provision repealing the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, pending House approval. If enacted, the repeal will be tied to strict oversight: Washington will require regular reporting on counter-ISIS operations, protection of minorities, the removal of foreign fighters, restraint toward neighbours, and accountability for sectarian violence. Failure to meet these benchmarks could trigger the reimposition of sanctions.

The Trump administration has pushed consistently for sanctions relief since Assad’s fall, issuing waivers and backing legislative repeal as part of Syria’s economic re-entry.

The weight of memory and justice

Amid celebration, Syria’s human rights reckoning loomed large. The Syrian Network for Human Rights reported that more than 202,000 civilians were killed during the war, over 160,000 forcibly disappeared, and 45,000 died under torture. The organisation identified over 16,000 alleged perpetrators and urged the new authorities to anchor the transition in genuine accountability. As Syria looks forward, the tension between reconstruction, political reconciliation, and justice for past crimes will define whether this anniversary marks not just an end, but a new beginning.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇺🇸 Ramaphosa warns disinformation endangers South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that white supremacist ideology and false narratives of Afrikaner persecution now pose a direct risk to South Africa’s sovereignty, security, and foreign relations. His remarks follow repeated, baseless claims by President Trump and Elon Musk of a supposed “white genocide”.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇶🇦 Qatar offers unlimited gas to Egypt as Israel deal stalls: Doha has offered to supply Egypt with unlimited natural gas as a $35 billion expansion deal with Israel remains frozen by political disputes and security concerns. With Cairo increasingly dependent on imported gas and frustrated by delays from Tel Aviv, the move underscores Egypt’s push to diversify suppliers amid worsening bilateral tensions over Gaza and border security.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 Tony Blair dropped from Trump Gaza peace council: Tony Blair has been quietly removed from consideration for Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza “peace council” after reported objections from Arab and Muslim states to his involvement. Blair’s role now appears reduced at most to an informal advisory capacity, underscoring the political resistance and fragility surrounding Trump’s contested Gaza initiative.

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Grow Your Audience With Us

Build your reach. Strengthen your brand.

We’ve helped brands, podcasts, and media organisations grow audiences using proven short-form video systems.

From scripting and editing to analytics and optimisation — every decision is driven by data, not guesswork.

Visit www.horizonatlasmedia.com to learn more.