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📰 Syria’s sectarian crisis

📰 Syria’s sectarian crisis

and Merz wants UK nukes

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 10, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, Russia-aligned Georgescu has been blocked from Romania’s presidential race, the U.S. has ended Iraq’s sanctions waiver for Iranian electricity imports, and aid cuts are putting over a million displaced Rohingya in Bangladesh at risk. Meanwhile, violent escalations in Syria and Somalia are threatening to destabilize the already fragile political orders in both countries.

The main story today explores U.S. and European approaches to Ukraine’s peace process.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 Germany pushes for European intelligence sharing, Merz pursues French, British nuclear arms assistance: Germany’s top intelligence officials are advocating for a unified European intelligence-sharing network, warning that reliance on U.S. resources is no longer sustainable. Bundestag intelligence oversight chair Konstantin von Notz called for a "Euro Eyes" initiative to enhance intelligence cooperation among European states. His proposal follows Washington’s suspension of intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, raising fears that similar restrictions could extend to Germany. Meanwhile, Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz has suggested deeper nuclear cooperation with France and Britain while maintaining the U.S. nuclear umbrella. At an EU summit in Brussels, leaders agreed to boost defense spending to counter Russia’s growing threat, particularly in light of signals from the White House. Domestically, Merz faces challenges forming a coalition, balancing defense expansion with migration policies, and securing Green Party support for his proposed constitutional changes to fund military and infrastructure investments.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Alawite populations targeted as sectarian clashes engulf Syria’s Mediterranean coast: Western Syria has descended into sectarian discord, with clashes between government and Assad loyalists intensifying. local media report over 1,000 deaths—mostly Alawites—including widespread civilian casualties, as reports emerge of executions, torture, and looting. Attacks on unarmed civilians have reignited fears that remnants of Bashar al-Assad’s ousted regime are reviving the brutal tactics of his rule, while government forces under President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have also been implicated in mass killings. Al-Sharaa has defended the government's actions, claiming its priority is restoring order rather than escalating violence. Syria’s Interior Ministry has blamed "undisciplined military elements" for the unrest, while regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, have condemned the bloodshed as a threat to Syria’s stability. Analysts caution that the escalating violence poses a significant obstacle to the Damascus administration's efforts to secure sanctions relief.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Tehran apprehensive over Moscow and Washington’s improved ties: Iranian media and political circles have reacted with widespread distrust to reports of Russian mediation in potential talks between Tehran and Washington. Concerns span both conservative and reformist factions, with fears that Iran risks becoming a bargaining chip in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dealings with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia sees itself as a facilitator, but hardline outlets like Kayhan dismissed the need for intermediaries, warning Moscow against falling into "America’s trap." Reformist voices echoed similar apprehensions, with Sazandegi questioning Russia’s neutrality, suggesting its primary goal is leveraging Tehran in negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, Iran’s deepening military ties with Moscow—particularly in drone and missile cooperation—have made Russian interests increasingly intertwined with any future US-Iran talks. Tehran now faces a complex diplomatic landscape, where Russia’s involvement may serve as both an opportunity and a strategic liability.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel imposes new electricity blockade on Gaza: Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen has ordered an immediate halt to electricity supply in Gaza, further straining the enclave’s already fragile infrastructure. Cohen announced he had signed the order, declaring, “Enough with the talk, it’s time for action!” This move follows Israel’s week-long blockade of all goods into Gaza, after reneging on the ceasefire agreement that ended 15 months of genocide. Hamas condemned the decision as an attempt to pressure the group into releasing captives, calling it “cheap and unacceptable blackmail.” Aid groups have accused Israel of violating international humanitarian law by depriving over two million people of basic necessities. With bakeries shutting down and food supplies dwindling, civilians continue to endure dire conditions despite the pause in airstrikes.

5️⃣ 🇸🇴 Al-Shabaab seize towns in Middle Shabelle, advance toward Mogadishu: Al-Shabaab militants seized two towns in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region, further eroding the Somali army’s defensive lines near the capital, Mogadishu. The militant group overran Boos Hareeri and Al Kowther, both located near the strategic town of Adan Yabal, following intense clashes that left several soldiers dead. The offensive marks another major gain for al-Shabaab, which has seized nearly a dozen towns in recent weeks, including War Eise—just 25 kilometers from Jowhar, the capital of Hirshabelle state. Amid these setbacks, Somali State Minister of Defense Omar Ali Ahmed accused suspended military officers of leaking troop movements to Al-Shabaab. While he warned of severe consequences, questions remain over why the government has yet to act decisively against the alleged infiltrators, raising concerns about leadership, security vulnerabilities, and the morale of frontline troops.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 U.S. AND EUROPEAN APPROACHES TO UKRAINE’S PEACE PROCESS

The events surrounding Sir Keir Starmer's visit to the White House in late February and the subsequent Oval Office debacle underscore the shifting dynamics in the Ukraine conflict. Initially, there were indications that the U.S. might adopt a balanced stance in peace negotiations, suggesting Russia’s withdrawal from occupied territories and the possibility of U.S.-backed European deterrence in Ukraine. However, after a heated meeting, the U.S. administration dismissed Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, accusing him of unpreparedness for peace and threatening to withdraw support.

Zelenskyy’s stance remained clear: Ukraine must regain unlawfully occupied territories, and Russia's violations of past agreements must be addressed. Despite this, Zelenskyy was willing to make concessions, including a controversial deal involving Ukraine’s mineral resources in exchange for continued US support. Meanwhile, the U.S. appeared to favour a simple ceasefire, without addressing key issues such as territorial disputes and security guarantees.

The main alternatives to the current impasse are either a Ukrainian victory, which seems increasingly unlikely, or accepting Russian territorial claims, which would undermine international law. A middle-ground solution could involve a ceasefire paired with a political settlement, creating a demilitarized zone and postponing the resolution of territorial disputes for a future Pan-European conference.

Europe, alarmed by the U.S.’s uncertain position, is considering its own response. A potential NATO-backed European force could provide security, but any such deployment would face strong opposition from Russia and would only be feasible within a stable peace settlement, not a fragile ceasefire. Thus, according to Cambridge’s Prof. Marc Weller, the focus should remain on securing a comprehensive, long-term solution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty while addressing Russia’s concerns.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 U.S. aborts Iraq’s sanctions waiver for Iranian electricity imports: The U.S. has revoked a sanctions waiver that previously allowed Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran, reinforcing President Donald Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. The U.S. State Department announced that the decision was aimed at preventing Iran from gaining any financial or economic relief. Despite Iraq’s vast oil and gas resources, decades of war, corruption, and mismanagement have left the country heavily reliant on Iranian energy imports. Iraqi officials warn that the waiver’s expiration could severely impact electricity supplies, especially if gas imports are also restricted. With summer temperatures exceeding 50°C (122°F), many Iraqis already depend on costly diesel generators. Baghdad is now scrambling to find alternatives, as a full halt in Iranian gas imports could reduce Iraq’s electricity capacity by more than 30%.

2️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Georgescu blocked from Romania’s presidential race, Musk criticises decision: Romania’s Central Electoral Bureau has disqualified far-right, Russia-aligned candidate Călin Georgescu from contesting the country’s May presidential election, sparking protests and political backlash. The bureau, which voted 10-4 against his candidacy, has yet to provide an official explanation, though Georgescu retains the right to appeal. The decision follows last year’s annulled presidential runoff, where an alleged Russian operation was said to have influenced his first-round victory. Supporters clashed with riot police in Bucharest, throwing pieces of pavement in protest. Trump administration officials, who have aligned with the Kremlin on key foreign policy issues, condemned the move, with senior adviser Elon Musk calling it “crazy.” Georgescu declared on X that Romania’s democracy is under threat, warning, “Europe is now a dictatorship.”

3️⃣ 🇧🇩 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh suffer from sweeping aid cuts: Rohingya refugees in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh fear the consequences of U.S. funding cuts, which will slash food rations by half starting next month. The World Food Program confirmed the reductions will take effect on April 1, impacting over a million people in Cox’s Bazar. President Trump’s decision to halt most foreign aid and dismantle USAID has severely disrupted global humanitarian efforts, with his Jan. 20 executive order freezing funding for a 90-day review. The cuts have already led to reduced medical services, with refugees reporting that hospitals now limit treatment to emergency cases. Bangladesh insists Rohingya must return to Myanmar, despite ongoing armed conflict and the country’s genocide allegations. With fewer resources and growing uncertainty, refugees remain trapped in worsening conditions with little hope for stability.