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📰 Türkiye secures Somalia hydrocarbons deal

📰 Türkiye secures Somalia hydrocarbons deal

and India tests long-range missiles

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 28, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, the U.S. deploys anti-ship missiles to the Philippines amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. Elsewhere, Israel is central to developments, as the ICC appeals chamber overturns a ruling on Israel’s jurisdiction challenge and Israeli forces strike Beirut’s southern suburbs, breaching the Lebanon ceasefire.

Our lead story looks at Trump’s Ukraine peace proposal and the fragile openings emerging amid deep divisions.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India tests long-range missiles amid rising Kashmir tensions: India’s navy test-fired long-range missiles on Sunday, demonstrating strike capabilities amid surging tensions with Pakistan following a deadly attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed a "harsh response," while Pakistan’s railway minister warned that Islamabad’s nuclear arsenal was “aimed only at India,” fuelling fears of escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals. Diplomatic ties continued to unravel, with both countries expelling diplomats, cancelling visas, and suspending key agreements as cross-border fire flared along the Line of Control. Meanwhile, Indian forces launched a sweeping crackdown in Kashmir, detaining hundreds and demolishing homes linked to suspected militants.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 RSF intensifies Darfur offensive as humanitarian crisis deepens: The battle for El-Fasher escalates as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) push to seize full control of Darfur, while international responses remain restrained amid reported UAE influence. A fire in Taweelah, North Darfur, killed eight civilians, including four children, as displacement from Zamzam, Abu Shawk, and Al-Fasher camps surged past 450,000 people. Aid workers warn of a looming health catastrophe, citing acute shortages of medicine, clean water, and shelter for thousands now living in the open across Umm Kadada and Brosh. With commodity prices soaring and basic services collapsing, urgent calls are growing for safe humanitarian corridors and immediate international intervention.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇴 Turkey secures sweeping energy and security privileges in Somalia deal: The full text of a wide-ranging hydrocarbons agreement between Turkey and Somalia has been released following its submission to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. Signed in March 2024, the deal grants Turkish firms major advantages, including exemption from upfront fees, a 90% cost recovery arrangement, and full export rights over oil and gas revenue. Turkey is also authorized to deploy security forces to protect its energy operations, with related costs reimbursed through petroleum revenues. In return, Somalia retains sovereignty over its resources, while Turkey strengthens its strategic foothold in the Gulf of Aden through privileged access to Somali maritime zones.

4️⃣ 🇵🇦 🇪🇬 🇺🇸 Trump demands free U.S. transit through Panama, Suez canals: U.S. President Donald Trump stated that American military and commercial vessels should be permitted to pass through the Panama and Suez canals without fees, arguing the canals exist thanks to U.S. efforts. He directed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to address the issue, suggesting it be formally recognized. Trump has criticized Panama’s canal management and has not ruled out military action to reclaim control, accusing officials of imposing excessive fees and warning of rising Chinese influence. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino responded that transit regulations are managed independently by the Panama Canal Authority, with no special agreements in place.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 Mahmoud Abbas names Hussein al-Sheikh as deputy of the PLO and PA: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has appointed senior Fatah official Hussein al-Sheikh as Deputy President of the PLO, the first such move in two decades. Al-Sheikh, a close Abbas ally and veteran negotiator, now becomes second-in-command amid growing succession concerns as Abbas nears 90. While Abbas loyalists hailed the decision as necessary for stability, factions including Hamas, the PFLP, and DFLP condemned it as unilateral and driven by external pressures. Critics argue the appointment sidelines democratic processes and entrenches Israeli influence over PA institutions, as tensions over Gaza and broader leadership questions continue to deepen.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 TRUMP’S UKRAINE PEACE PROPOSAL: FRAGILE OPENINGS AMID DEEP DIVIDES

When Donald Trump promised rapid peace in Ukraine, few believed negotiations would advance. Yet, after weeks of U.S. mediation between Russian and Ukrainian sides, a draft deal—reportedly endorsed by Moscow—has been proposed and rejected by Kyiv. Although many elements remain unclear and problematic, the initiative marks a rare diplomatic opening. Trump’s team now threatens to walk away if no swift agreement is reached, but even without immediate success, maintaining dialogue remains vital.

Key Terms and Sticking Points

The proposed framework reportedly includes U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to Crimea, de facto acceptance of Russian control over occupied territories, NATO non-accession guarantees for Ukraine, and significant sanctions relief. However, ambiguities persist—particularly over constitutional changes Ukraine would be asked to make, the sequencing of ceasefire measures, and whether sanctions would be lifted before tangible progress. Kyiv’s firm refusal to recognise Crimea’s annexation and European hesitance over sanctions easing have hardened positions, even as Putin and Zelenskyy separately signal interest in a ceasefire.

Strategic Calculations

Despite the challenges, the fact that all parties are engaging signals potential for incremental progress. Kyiv, supported by European allies, should cautiously pursue direct talks, ensuring any deal preserves its military deterrent and strategic partnerships outside NATO. Moscow, meanwhile, faces a choice: pursue talks in good faith, or risk protracted conflict. A short-term ceasefire, even temporary, could create breathing space for more serious negotiations.

The Road Ahead

European powers, particularly France and the UK, have demonstrated effective diplomacy and should continue pressing for robust security guarantees. Sanctions leverage remains a powerful tool for conditioning Russian concessions. While the U.S. may withdraw if negotiations stall, Europe and Ukraine should seize the diplomatic momentum. Even if an immediate breakthrough remains elusive, the framework laid now could yet pave the way for a more durable settlement.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 U.S. deploys anti-ship missiles to Philippines amid South China Sea escalations: The U.S. military deployed an anti-ship missile system to Batan Island over the weekend as U.S. and Philippine forces conducted live-fire drills near key flashpoints in the South China Sea. During the Balikatan exercises, nearly 14,000 troops practiced repelling seaborne assaults, with the U.S. Navy’s new missile system positioned within range of Taiwan’s Bashi Channel. China condemned the drills as provocative, while U.S. officials insisted they were focused on the defense of the Philippines, not aimed at any adversary. Meanwhile, Beijing continues to stage military maneuvers around Taiwan, fueling concerns over escalating regional tensions.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel breaches Lebanon ceasefire with strike on south Beirut: Israeli forces carried out a major airstrike on Sunday in Beirut’s Hadath district, a Hizbollah stronghold, after issuing warnings that triggered mass panic and displacement. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the attack, urging the U.S. and France to pressure Israel to halt its actions, warning that continued strikes would destabilise the region. Meanwhile, Israeli drone attacks elsewhere in southern Lebanon killed a civilian and targeted alleged Hizbollah positions, with Lebanese authorities demanding an end to Israeli incursions before any talks on Hizbollah’s arms can proceed. Hizbollah’s senior brass reaffirmed their conditions for any future defence dialogue, insisting on prioritising Lebanon’s sovereignty and the liberation of occupied territory.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 ICC appeals chamber overturns ruling on Israel's jurisdiction challenge: The Appeals Chamber of the International Criminal Court ruled on Israel’s appeal against a Pre-Trial Chamber decision that dismissed its jurisdictional challenge as premature. Finding that the lower chamber erred by not properly addressing Israel’s right to contest jurisdiction under article 19(2)(c), the Appeals Chamber reversed the decision and sent the matter back for reconsideration. It also dismissed as moot Israel’s request to suspend the effect of two arrest warrants issued after the original ruling. Separately, the Appeals Chamber rejected Israel’s second appeal regarding a notice request under article 18(1), deeming it inadmissible, with two judges dissenting.