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📰 Tanks roll into West Bank

📰 Tanks roll into West Bank

and Trump slaps tariffs

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 26, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today's dispatch is dominated by developments from the Middle East: Israel expands its airstrikes in southern Syria to establish a strategic buffer, while Israeli tanks are deployed to the West Bank. In Sudan, the Sovereign Council revises the Transitional Constitutional Declaration, and the battle for El-Fasher emerges as a turning point in the civil war.

Elsewhere, Indonesia launches a sovereign wealth fund, and U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico move forward.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Ukraine reportedly agrees to U.S. mineral-rights deal, Zelenskyy to meet with Trump Friday: Ukraine has reached an agreement with the U.S. on a mineral-rights deal, according to WSJ, which could be finalised during a White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky as early as Friday. Negotiators say the U.S. has dropped its demand for a $500 billion share of Ukraine’s mineral revenues, a sticking point that had strained relations between Washington and Kyiv. Zelensky, who previously refused to sign the deal without security guarantees, had also criticised demands that far exceeded U.S. financial aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. Meanwhile, tensions escalated as Trump accused Zelensky of dictatorship, excluded Ukraine from U.S.-Russia peace talks, and opposed a UN resolution condemning Moscow’s aggression.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Displaced Palestinians in West Bank blocked from returning home as Israel deploys tanks: The Israeli military expanded its offensive in the northern West Bank on Sunday, targeting Qabatiya, the second-largest town in Jenin governorate. Armoured vehicles entered the town at dawn, demolishing shops, tearing up water pipelines, and damaging a historic cemetery. Defence Minister Israel Katz later confirmed the expansion of the "Iron Wall" operation, revealing that 40,000 Palestinians had been expelled from refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, with residents barred from returning for a year. Meanwhile, Israeli tanks were deployed near Jenin for the first time in 23 years, as military operations intensified across the northern West Bank, forcing school closures in Qabatiya and causing severe infrastructure damage, including road destruction, water cuts, and the takeover of civilian homes for military use.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Southern Syria hit by airstrikes as Israel seeks strategic buffer: Israeli warplanes launched airstrikes on Kisweh, south of Damascus, and the southern province of Daraa late Tuesday, targeting military sites, according to Syrian security sources and state media. The Israeli military confirmed the attacks, stating they were part of a broader strategy to prevent southern Syria from ‘becoming a resistance stronghold like southern Lebanon.’ Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that any attempt by Syrian forces or militant groups to establish a presence in the region would be met with force. The strikes followed Syria’s condemnation of Israel’s military presence in the south, which began after HTS ousted former President Bashar al-Assad in December.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 Syria holds national dialogue conference: The Syrian National Dialogue Conference, held in Damascus, concluded with a final statement declaring all armed groups—including Kurdish-majority SDF—illegal and reaffirming Syria’s territorial integrity. The statement called for drafting a provisional constitution, forming an interim legislative council, and establishing a constitutional committee to create a permanent constitution. It also condemned Israeli incursions, urged international action to end violations, and demanded the lifting of sanctions hindering reconstruction efforts. Additional priorities included judicial reforms, political inclusivity, economic revitalization, public sector modernization, and strengthening civil society, education, and dialogue to ensure national stability and development.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇲🇽 Canada, Mexico tariffs to go ahead: U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, following a month-long delay after both countries pledged to strengthen border security. The tariffs include a 25% duty on various products and a 10% levy on Canadian energy exports. Trump defended the move, claiming the U.S. had been economically mistreated but provided no specific examples. Canada and Mexico, which account for $900 billion in U.S. imports, warned they would impose retaliatory tariffs if the measures proceed.

Major Story

🇸🇩 THE BATTLE FOR EL-FASHER: A PIVOTAL STRUGGLE IN SUDAN’S CIVIL WAR

El-Fasher, the historical capital of Darfur, has become a focal point of Sudan’s ongoing civil war. The city’s strategic location, connecting key regions and serving as a hub for humanitarian operations, makes it a critical prize for both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Control of El-Fasher could determine the trajectory of the conflict, with far-reaching implications for Darfur and Sudan as a whole.

The RSF’s Offensive and Humanitarian Crisis

Since April 2024, the RSF has intensified its campaign to capture El-Fasher, cutting off vital supply arteries and besieging the city. The RSF’s indiscriminate shelling and attacks on displacement camps—such as Zamzam—have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, leaving thousands starving and displaced. Despite heavy losses, including the deaths of top commanders, the RSF remains determined to seize the city, employing a combination of heavy weaponry and sporadic attacks on surrounding villages to weaken the Joint Darfur Forces (JDF) and SAF defenses.

SAF’s Counteroffensive and Regional Implications

The SAF, bolstered by recent gains in Khartoum and North Kordofan, has escalated its efforts to defend El-Fasher. The city’s fall to the RSF could cripple the SAF’s ability to maintain control over strategic regions and potentially shift the balance of power in Sudan. Moreover, an RSF victory could destabilize Darfur further, creating a haven for transnational militant groups and exacerbating regional insecurity. Neighboring countries like Chad and the Central African Republic are already feeling the spillover effects, with reports of cross-border recruitment, arms smuggling, and refugee flows.

A Turning Point in Sudan’s War

The battle for El-Fasher is more than a regional conflict; it is a microcosm of Sudan’s broader civil war. The outcome will not only shape the fate of Darfur but also influence the geopolitical landscape of the Sahel and beyond. As both sides dig in, the international community must intensify efforts to protect civilians, ensure humanitarian access, and hold perpetrators of atrocities accountable. Without decisive action, El-Fasher’s fall could mark a tragic escalation in Sudan’s descent into chaos.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudan’s Sovereign Council revises Transitional Constitutional Declaration: Sudan’s Ministry of Justice has amended the Constitutional Declaration, extending the transitional period by 39 months and granting the military greater authority. The revisions eliminate the committee investigating the 2019 sit-in crackdown and expand the Sovereign Council’s power over key appointments, including the prime minister, regional governors, and judiciary. The Sovereign Council, now dominated by the army, gains legislative and oversight functions until a new Legislative Council is formed. Additionally, the amendments reinforce Islamic principles in legislation, integrate armed groups into the military, and position the army to oversee defence industries. These changes, enacted just days before the formation of a new government, solidify military influence over Sudan’s political landscape.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 Indonesia launches sovereign wealth fund: Indonesia has announced its second sovereign wealth fund, Danantara Indonesia, with an ambitious goal of raising $900 billion to boost economic growth. President Prabowo Subianto, in office since October, aims to increase GDP growth from 5% to 8%, partially funding this plan by cutting ministerial budgets—moves that triggered nationwide protests. Concerns over governance have emerged, as the fund will be overseen by the Investment Minister, reporting directly to the President, raising fears of political misuse. Critics, including NGOs, warn of potential corruption and a lack of oversight, urging the government to implement strict monitoring mechanisms to ensure transparency in a country historically plagued by bureaucratic inefficiencies and financial mismanagement.