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📰 Thai prime minister suspended

📰 Thai prime minister suspended

and Lavrov warns Europe

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 02, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Bucharest, Bolojan readies sweeping austerity reforms to rein in Romania’s surging deficit, while in the South Caucasus, Armenian authorities arrest another senior cleric linked to an alleged coup plot. In the United States, the Senate passes Trump’s multibillion-dollar spending bill after a marathon voting session, as the President also calls for harsher sanctions on Cuba.

Our lead story turns to Southeast Asia, where political turmoil escalates amid a leaked phone call and a deepening border crisis.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 Investigation links Damascus-backed factions to Alawite massacres on Syria’s Mediterranean coast: In early March, Sunni militias aligned with Syria’s new government carried out mass killings of Alawite civilians across the country’s Mediterranean provinces, leaving nearly 1,500 dead and dozens of villages devastated in retaliation for an apparent coup by loyalists of the deposed Assad regime. A Reuters investigation has traced the violence to factions now operating under President Ahmed al-Sharaa—formerly the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. As towns across Latakia, Tartus, and Hama emptied, at least 40 sites of targeted massacres were identified. The perpetrators include Sunni Islamist groups aligned with al-Sharaa, ex-HTS units, Turkish-backed militias, Syrian National Army affiliates, and elements of Jaish al-Islam. Although al-Sharaa pledged in April to hold perpetrators accountable “even among those closest to us,” many implicated groups have long records of abuse. The Trump administration’s rollback of sanctions has further muddied accountability efforts. As killings persist today, a Damascus-appointed committee continues to prepare a report on the violence amid rising fears of sectarian retribution.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Sudan’s Armed Forces agree to El-Fasher ceasefire, following UN request: Sudan’s military has accepted a United Nations proposal for a one-week ceasefire in El Fasher, aimed at enabling urgent humanitarian aid delivery. The decision followed a phone call between UN Secretary-General António Guterres and army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, who underscored the importance of enforcing relevant Security Council resolutions. However, it remains unclear whether the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which continue to assault the city, will observe the truce. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, has been a key battleground in the conflict between the army and RSF, which erupted in April 2023 and has killed over 20,000 people. With more than 14 million displaced and famine spreading, Guterres emphasised the need for coordinated preparation days in advance to ensure large-scale aid reaches the besieged city.

3️⃣ 🇨🇺 🇺🇸 Trump wants tougher sanctions on Cuba: President Donald Trump has directed senior Cabinet officials to reassess U.S. policy toward Cuba, with a 30-day deadline to propose tougher sanctions. The review will focus on curbing financial transactions that benefit Cuban state entities and may seek to halt tourism entirely while limiting educational visits to U.S.-run groups only. The move signals Trump’s intent to reverse Obama- and Biden-era normalisation efforts. In his directive, Trump reaffirmed support for the embargo and rejected international calls for its end. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez condemned the memo as punitive and a violation of human rights. The administration has also increased deportation risk for 300,000 Cubans and imposed visa restrictions tied to Cuba’s foreign medical missions, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio labelled “forced labor.”

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇷🇸 Russian foreign minister Lavrov warns against Western stoking of ‘colour revolution’ in Serbia: Russia has expressed concern over ongoing anti-government protests in Serbia, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accusing Western nations of potentially fuelling a “color revolution” to destabilise the Balkan state. Moscow urged that unrest be resolved peacefully, in line with Serbia’s constitution, and reiterated support for President Aleksandar Vučić. The protests—triggered by a fatal infrastructure collapse last year and now demanding snap elections—have drawn tens of thousands to the streets, leading to violent clashes, dozens of injuries, and arrests. The Kremlin, echoing Vučić’s claims of foreign interference, warned that familiar tactics used to orchestrate uprisings elsewhere may be at play. Despite mass mobilisation and political fallout, including a cabinet reshuffle, Russia remains confident Serbian authorities will restore order while maintaining close bilateral ties.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇷 Ankara warns war with Iran could collapse peace talks with Kurdish PKK: Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are threatening to derail Turkey’s fragile peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which recently announced plans to dissolve. Turkish officials fear that a wider regional war could prompt the PKK to reverse course and exploit emerging power vacuums. The alignment of Iranian Kurdish armed groups against Tehran complicates matters, especially as the PKK's Iranian wing gained prominence during the 2022 protests. Ankara has long accused Iran of fostering Kurdish militancy across Iraq and Syria, undermining Turkish security. With talk of a “new Kurdistan” gaining ground—fueled by Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, Syria, and recent SDF-Syrian government talks—Turkey sees a potential existential threat. Ankara now frames ending Israel’s war on Iran as critical to preserving its own domestic peace efforts.

Major Story

🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇺🇳 POLITICAL TURMOIL IN BANGKOK DEEPENS: LEAKED CALL AND BORDER CRISIS ROCK PAETONGTARN’S GOVERNMENT

Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on 1 July, accepting a petition from senators alleging she breached ethical standards in a leaked 15 June call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. In the call, Paetongtarn appeared to criticise a senior commander in the Thai armed forces and spoke deferentially to Hun Sen amid surging tensions over a 28 May border clash that left a Cambodian soldier dead. The scandal has fractured Thailand’s ruling coalition and emboldened nationalist critics who accuse the Pheu Thai government of subservience to Cambodia and undermining Thai sovereignty.

Border Dispute Reignites Long-standing Tensions

The military confrontation at Chong Bok/Mom Bei followed months of escalating incidents, including symbolic provocations at ancient temples, trench-digging in disputed areas, and conspiracy theories around a pavilion fire. Cambodia has submitted the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), though Thailand refuses the court’s jurisdiction, citing a 2000 bilateral agreement instead. The broader border, shaped by colonial-era maps, has been a flashpoint before—most violently between 2008 and 2011, with clashes over the Preah Vihear temple. These conflicts tap into historical grievances and nationalist fervour on both sides.

Domestic Political Crisis and Regional Rivalry Converge

The scandal has exposed fault lines within Thailand’s uneasy ruling coalition—formed to block the reformist Move Forward Party—leading to the resignation of Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and the Bhumjaithai Party’s exit. Paetongtarn’s attempts to mend ties with the military and shift blame to Cambodia’s cybercrime networks have not quelled criticism. Her suspension has reinvigorated efforts by old-guard opponents to remove her permanently, as more legal challenges mount. Meanwhile, Hun Sen has used the crisis to sever ties with Thaksin Shinawatra, once his close ally, threatening to reveal damaging secrets.

Escalation risks regional instability

Both governments are stoking nationalism, with Cambodia accusing Thailand of military aggression and Thailand highlighting Cambodia’s role in transnational scam operations. Cambodia’s call for its workers in Thailand to return adds to fears of economic disruption, as over 500,000 Cambodians work in Thai industries. Despite the existing bilateral Joint Boundary Commission and ASEAN’s framework for peaceful dispute resolution, dialogue has stalled. Without de-escalation, symbolic disputes could trigger military missteps or deepen instability.

Prolonged instability will harm both countries economically and politically while risking lives over territory imbued more with symbolic than strategic value.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Bolojan prepares austerity reforms to curb Romania’s soaring deficit: Romania’s new government, led by Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, is preparing sweeping fiscal reforms to reduce the EU’s highest budget deficit—9.3% of GDP in 2024—amid warnings of a credit downgrade and EU funding cuts. Proposed measures include axing 20% of civil service jobs, raising VAT on energy products, taxing gambling, and increasing profit and dividend tax from 10% to 16%. The European Commission has urged Romania to cut its deficit to 2.8% by 2030. Protests have already erupted, and analysts warn austerity could inflame public anger and fuel far-right populism. Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare stressed the need for unity to avoid deeper financial turmoil. Experts also highlight tackling VAT evasion—estimated at €8.5 billion—as key to fiscal recovery.

2️⃣ 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Armenia arrests another top cleric over alleged coup plot: Armenian authorities have detained a second senior cleric, Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan, on charges of inciting the government’s overthrow, intensifying a widening crackdown on religious and political dissent. A Yerevan court ordered two months’ pre-trial detention, which his lawyer denounced as baseless. His arrest follows that of Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, head of the opposition Sacred Struggle movement, and Russian-Armenian tycoon Samvel Karapetyan, both accused of plotting against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Tensions have surged since Armenia’s concession of border villages to Azerbaijan and ongoing efforts to normalise relations with both Baku and Ankara. The Armenian Apostolic Church, long critical of Pashinyan, now finds itself increasingly targeted—especially after the prime minister publicly urged the Catholicos to resign. Mounting discontent underscores the government’s hardening stance toward dissent, amid historic shifts in regional policy and national identity.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 Senate passes Trump’s megabill after marathon voting session: The Senate narrowly passed President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote after a marathon overnight session. The 51–50 result inches Republicans closer to enacting Trump’s key priorities—prolonged tax cuts, heightened defence and border funding, and deep cuts to Medicaid and green energy programs. GOP leaders secured support through last-minute concessions, including a $50 billion rural health fund and easing nutrition-assistance cuts for certain states. Yet dissent remains: three Republican senators opposed the bill over its projected $5 trillion debt increase and Medicaid reductions. The bill now returns to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson must rally sceptical Republicans to meet Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. Democrats unanimously opposed the measure, calling it a wealth transfer to elites and a blow to healthcare and clean energy.