Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Thailand and Cambodia at war?

📰 Thailand and Cambodia at war?

and France to recognise Palestine

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 25, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

In today’s brief, Saudi Arabia opts for U.S. weapons over Chinese systems, citing security guarantees and operational compatibility; Turkey withdraws from its oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as it moves to redefine regional energy dynamics; and the EU courts Beijing for a climate pact amid U.S. disengagement.

Our top story offers a comparative analysis of democratic decline in Washington and Delhi, where Trump and Modi follow a shared script to dismantle democracy.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai and Cambodian forces exchange deadly fire amid rising border tensions and political feuds: Border clashes between Thai and Cambodian troops have erupted, marking the most intense fighting in years. At least 15 people have been killed—14 of them civilians—as heavy artillery and Russian-made rockets were exchanged across multiple disputed border points. The fighting began near the disputed Ta Muen Thom temple and spread to eight locations across 270 km, with Cambodia striking civilian sites and Thailand responding with F-16 airstrikes. Bangkok accused Cambodian troops of planting landmines that maimed two Thai soldiers, triggering the crisis. A hospital was struck in Surin province, which Thailand’s health minister labelled a war crime. Personal rivalries between Cambodia’s Hun Sen and Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra, whose children now lead their respective governments, have deepened mistrust. ASEAN’s mediation faces steep challenges, as both sides exchange threats and reject talks until hostilities cease.

2️⃣ 🇭🇷 🇧🇦 Croatia escalates nationalist push to partition Bosnia under guise of minority rights: Nearly three decades after the Dayton Agreement ended Bosnia’s war, its flawed power-sharing system is being weaponised by Croatian nationalists to undermine the state’s sovereignty. At a recent conference marking Dayton’s anniversary, Croatian officials pushed ethnonationalist narratives—including proposals for segregated education and redrawn electoral zones—that echo the wartime project of carving Bosnia into ethnically pure territories. Through HDZ BiH, Zagreb continues to obstruct EU-mandated reforms, defying European Court of Human Rights rulings and attempting to entrench ethnic exclusivity via election law changes. While Republika Srpska’s Milorad Dodik’s secessionist threats remain visible, Croatia’s campaign is more insidious, framed as concern for Bosnian Croats but aligned with the original partition agenda. Without decisive international intervention, Bosnia risks a managed disintegration, with its sovereignty quietly eroded and its democratic future held hostage by external nationalist forces.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus rejects Kurdish bid to retain arms as reintegration talks stall: Syria has dismissed Kurdish demands to maintain their own armed forces as part of ongoing talks over the reintegration of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the state. A government source told Al-Ikhbariya that keeping autonomous militias contradicts national unity and violates the March agreement between Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. Tensions have worsened amid escalating violence in Suwayda and coastal regions, fuelling Kurdish distrust. SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami called disarmament a “red line,” warning that Kurdish forces won’t capitulate. Damascus insists a national dialogue is impossible under arms or foreign influence. A planned Paris meeting between both sides was postponed, while Abdi held talks with US envoy Tom Barrack on the deepening crisis in southern Syria.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇵🇸 Macron pledges Palestinian recognition as Gaza war intensifies international backlash: French President Emmanuel Macron announced his country would formally recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, making France the most powerful European nation to do so. His declaration follows mounting global outrage over Israel’s war on Gaza, which has killed nearly 60,000 Palestinians and caused a man-made humanitarian catastrophe. While Macron called for an end to the war and stressed the need to create a demilitarised, viable Palestinian state that recognises Israel, the move sparked fury in Tel Aviv, with Deputy PM Yariv Levin calling it “shameless.” The Palestinian Authority welcomed the decision as a reaffirmation of international law. With Britain, Germany and others now exploring similar steps, momentum for Palestinian recognition is growing amid international alarm over Israel’s blockade and alleged war crimes.

5️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 New Zealand risks its strategic balance by aligning too closely with US-led defence initiatives: New Zealand’s participation in Talisman Sabre 2025 coincides with a decisive shift in its foreign and defence policy. Under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Wellington is moving closer to US-led military frameworks, including AUKUS Pillar 2, signalling a departure from its traditionally balanced posture between economic ties with China and security partnerships with the West. Critics, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, warn this trajectory threatens New Zealand’s diplomatic autonomy and credibility, especially in the Pacific. The 2025 Defence Capability Plan prioritises hard security over climate threats, raising concerns about strategic overreach, economic fallout, and alienation from neutral regional partners. Rather than becoming a junior hard power, New Zealand should reaffirm its strengths: diplomatic leadership, strategic autonomy, and principled regional engagement.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇳 TRUMP AND MODI FOLLOW A SHARED SCRIPT TO DISMANTLE DEMOCRACY

Authoritarianism rarely arrives in a single blow. More often, democracy unravels slice by slice—an approach dubbed the “salami strategy,” a term aptly coined in Hungary, itself now classed a hybrid regime by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Today, echoes of this erosion are visible in both the United States and India, where leaders Donald Trump and Narendra Modi have pursued parallel—if stylistically distinct—pathways to centralise power and weaken democratic institutions, according to The Interpreter’s Aarti Betigeri.

While Trump charges ahead with bombast, Modi’s approach is more deliberate, yet the destination is the same: weakened checks and balances, polarised electorates, and diminished democratic space. Observers across both nations increasingly turn to frameworks like The Authoritarian Playbook by Protect Democracy to track this transformation.

Capturing Institutions, Expanding Executive Power

Trump’s assault on independent agencies—from the DOJ to the Fed—has continued into his second term, mirroring Modi’s moves to influence India’s judiciary, the Central Bureau of Investigation, and the Reserve Bank. Both leaders have centralised decision-making, bypassing legislatures with executive orders or emergency powers, such as Modi’s 2016 demonetisation and the abrogation of Kashmir’s autonomy.

Disinformation, Suppressing Dissent, and Targeting the Vulnerable

Disinformation has become a pillar of both regimes. In the U.S., Trump’s post-2020 election claims and pandemic denialism were instrumental in undermining public trust. India’s disinformation ecosystem, less directly attributable to Modi, flourishes via BJP-linked digital cells and online trolls. Both leaders have vilified dissenters, muzzled the media, and criminalised protest.

Under Trump, marginalised communities—immigrants, Muslims, LGBTQ+ groups—were targeted through discriminatory policies. Modi’s government, meanwhile, has cultivated an exclusionary and nativist nationalism, marginalising Muslims via the Citizenship Amendment Act and enabling sectarian violence by hardline Hindu groups.

Undermining Elections and Stoking Violence

Trump’s refusal to accept electoral defeat culminated in the January 6 insurrection. Modi’s BJP has been accused of manipulating electoral bonds, redistricting, and wielding state power to tilt electoral outcomes. Both leaders have emboldened extremist elements, with violence from Charlottesville to Delhi revealing the risks of state-enabled polarisation.

A Shared Recipe for Democratic Backsliding

To this seven-step playbook, two more elements stand out: cronyism with billionaires and media subjugation. Whether through oligarchic entanglements or editorial purges, both regimes have silenced scrutiny and amplified propaganda.

Together, Trump and Modi exemplify how democracies die—not in dramatic coups, but through methodical, calculated dismantling of the institutions meant to preserve them.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 EU seeks climate accord with China to fill void left by U.S. withdrawal: With the U.S. retreating from global climate leadership under President Trump, the European Union is attempting to forge a climate pact with China, marking a shift from Washington–Beijing duopoly to potential EU–China cooperation. As EU leaders meet Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, climate remains the only issue with real prospects for progress amid rising trade tensions. A joint statement, even if modest, could reassure clean energy markets and reaffirm global climate momentum. China, now a clean tech export powerhouse, sees strategic and economic benefits in climate diplomacy. Yet EU officials remain cautious, wary of giving China a public win without meaningful concessions. Talks may offer symbolic progress ahead of COP30, but deep differences and EU political gridlock limit prospects for a breakthrough.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 Turkey terminates Iraq pipeline deal amid push to reshape regional energy ties: Turkey has announced it will cancel its decades-old oil pipeline agreement with Iraq, effective July 2026, citing the need for a new framework aligned with today’s geopolitical and economic realities. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, once a vital export route, has been offline since 2023 following a $1.5 billion arbitration ruling against Ankara. Turkey now seeks to renegotiate the deal to reflect recent developments, including its own Gabar oil discoveries and concerns about pipeline integrity on the Iraqi side. Ankara has already submitted a new energy cooperation proposal to Baghdad, covering oil, gas, petrochemicals, and renewables, and is pushing for infrastructure that bypasses the Kurdish region—strengthening its bid to become a regional energy hub.

3️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Saudi Arabia prioritises U.S. arms over Chinese alternatives due to security guarantees and interoperability: Despite the rising global appeal of Chinese-made weapons, Saudi Arabia continues to favour U.S. arms, valuing strategic alignment and security guarantees over affordability. The $142 billion arms deal signed in May reaffirms Riyadh’s deep defence ties with Washington. Chinese systems like the J-10 fighter are incompatible with the Kingdom’s existing U.S. arsenal and would require costly overhauls. More critically, Saudi leaders view arms purchases as a pathway to securing U.S. support in regional crises, as evidenced during the Yemen war. China, with minimal military presence in the region and strong ties to Iran, lacks the capacity and commitment to serve as a reliable security partner. The 2019 attack on Saudi oil infrastructure further exposed this gap, with Washington offering concrete backing while Beijing remained diplomatically passive.