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📰 The death of anti-conquest norms?

📰 The death of anti-conquest norms?

and Spain hikes defence spending

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 23, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, Burkina Faso’s junta says it has foiled an attempted coup, while China pulls back from U.S. private equity investments amid rising geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, tentative steps toward renewed ceasefires are emerging in both Gaza and Ukraine.

Our main story explores the erosion of long-standing international norms against territorial conquest.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks progressing ‘beyond belief’ says source: Unnamed Iranian sources have said that nuclear negotiations with the United States are advancing “beyond belief.” This framing may be strategic: by portraying talks as positive, Tehran could delay potential military strikes or snapback sanctions without making significant concessions. Iranian officials claim the U.S., represented by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, did not insist on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and showed openness to Iran’s right to enrichment. Reports also suggest Tehran is willing to lower enrichment levels to 3.67%, as per the 2015 JCPOA. Upcoming technical talks, rescheduled for April 26 in Oman, will reportedly address enrichment levels, centrifuge activity, and Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile—likely paving the way for high-level discussions between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine open to talks if Russia enacts full ceasefire: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Kyiv is prepared to enter direct negotiations with Moscow—but only if Russia first implements a total ceasefire. The comments mark a significant departure from Ukraine’s earlier stance, which ruled out dialogue since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. Zelenskyy’s remarks come as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes both sides to halt hostilities, threatening to exit ceasefire talks if progress stalls. Meanwhile, reports suggest Vladimir Putin may be open to freezing the conflict along current frontlines in exchange for U.S. recognition of Russia’s control over Crimea and occupied territories—an idea Kyiv has consistently rejected.

3️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇪🇬 🇵🇸 Qatar, Egypt propose new, long-term Gaza ceasefire deal: Qatari and Egyptian mediators have submitted a fresh proposal for a five- to seven-year ceasefire in Gaza, as a senior Hamas delegation travels to Cairo for renewed negotiations. The proposal reportedly includes the release of all remaining Israeli captives in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the possible transfer of governance in the Strip to a mutually agreed Palestinian administration. Talks come amid mounting international pressure, with a U.S.-Israeli delegation also in Cairo and Qatari officials meeting with U.S. counterparts in Washington. A previous ceasefire collapsed in March after Israel resumed its military campaign and blocked humanitarian aid.

4️⃣ 🇪🇸 Spain hikes defence spending to meet NATO commitment: Spain has unveiled a €10.5 billion plan to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2025, accelerating its timeline to meet long-standing NATO targets amid growing security threats. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed the initiative as essential for addressing modern challenges—from drones and cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns—while reaffirming that European nations must take primary responsibility for their own defence. The plan, focused on telecommunications, cybersecurity, and military procurement, marks a significant policy shift and fulfills a pledge originally made by a conservative government in 2014. Despite internal criticism over its scale, Sánchez insists the spending will not affect welfare budgets or increase taxes, calling the move vital to protecting Europe against Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and rising global instability.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China warns against backdoor tariff deals with Trump administration: China has cautioned countries seeking exemptions from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime not to negotiate trade relief at Beijing’s expense. In a statement issued by the Ministry of Commerce, China warned that any nation pursuing short-term benefits by curbing ties with China risks long-term consequences, stating such moves “will ultimately harm all parties.” The warning follows reports that Washington may pressure trade partners to scale back imports from China in exchange for tariff exemptions. While Beijing reaffirmed its willingness to work with nations to uphold global trade norms, it also pledged “resolute countermeasures” against any agreement that undermines Chinese interests, accusing the U.S. of “hegemonic politics” and threatening the rules-based global order.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇦 🇸🇾 🇪🇷 🇬🇱 THE UNRAVELING OF THE ANTI-CONQUEST PRINCIPLE

The post-World War II international order was built on institutions like the United Nations, aiming to prevent large-scale conflict. Central to this framework was a clear legal norm: states must not use force to alter borders. Codified in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, the principle helped preserve global stability by discouraging conquest.

Selective Enforcement and Eroding Norms

Yet this core rule has eroded. While major invasions—like Russia’s assault on Ukraine—remain rare, smaller-scale encroachments are on the rise. From Crimea to Ethiopia-Eritrea border tensions and Israeli activity in southern Syria, “nibbling” at sovereign borders weakens the anti-conquest norm more subtly but just as dangerously. Compounding this decline is inconsistent enforcement: Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 drew muted Western sanctions, undermining deterrence and emboldening further violations.

U.S. Hypocrisy and Strategic Ambiguity

The United States, once a leading voice for a “rules-based order,” now applies international norms increasingly selectively. Whether in Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward Greenland and Canada, or past administrations’ mixed reactions to ICC rulings, credibility has diminished. The term “rules-based order” increasingly invites skepticism, raising the question—whose rules, and what order?

A Norm in Decline

The norm against territorial acquisition once functioned as a moral and legal restraint on state behavior. Today, as geopolitical ambition overrides legal constraint, that restraint is faltering. Without credible enforcement or consistent advocacy, the line between international law and realpolitik continues to blur. As this principle fades, the world inches closer to a more chaotic and unstable era—one where power, not principle, defines the map.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso junta claims to have foiled coup attempt: Burkina Faso’s ruling junta claims it thwarted a coup attempt aimed at toppling Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who seized power in 2022. Security Minister Mahamadou Sana announced that intercepted communications between a senior military officer and jihadist leaders revealed the plot, which allegedly involved current and former soldiers, including the now-fugitive Captain René David Ouédraogo. Authorities say the plan was to storm the presidential palace on 16 April and trigger chaos under the guise of international oversight. This latest destabilisation attempt follows ongoing threats from jihadist groups, with 40% of the country under insurgent control, and growing accusations that plotters are operating from neighbouring Ivory Coast.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China retreats from U.S. private equity investments: Chinese state-backed investors are halting new commitments to U.S. private equity funds as trade tensions with Washington escalate under President Trump. According to multiple private equity insiders, the Chinese government has directed funds like China Investment Corporation to scale back investments, even in deals involving non-U.S. firms if they include American assets. The move follows the imposition of tit-for-tat tariffs—up to 145% from the U.S. and 125% from China—that have soured bilateral investment sentiment. While Chinese sovereign wealth funds historically channeled billions into major U.S. firms like Blackstone, Carlyle, and TPG, a shift is underway, with CIC diversifying its portfolio toward markets like Saudi Arabia, Europe, and Japan, and global investors increasingly rethinking U.S. exposure amid geopolitical uncertainty.