Hello and welcome back.

Israel dominates recent developments: leaked intelligence shows that at least 83% of Palestinians killed in Gaza were civilians; Israeli strikes hit Sanaa in a widening regional confrontation; and the Dutch foreign minister has resigned after a coalition split over sanctions on Israel.

At the centre of today's coverage is an in-depth analysis of the latest meetings between Putin, Trump, and European leaders, and the elusive path to peace in Ukraine.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN confirms Israel-manufactured famine in Gaza: The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has declared famine in Gaza, a rare Level 5 designation marking “catastrophic” hunger. This stringent threshold requires evidence of extreme food deprivation, acute malnutrition, and starvation-related deaths—all now evident in Gaza. Over half a million Palestinians are starving, with numbers projected to rise to more than 640,000 within weeks. Israel dismissed the findings as politically manipulated, yet data from aid agencies and medical workers confirm widespread malnutrition and preventable deaths. UN officials and NGOs accuse Israel of obstructing humanitarian aid, weaponising food, and restricting media access, while civilians starve. António Guterres called the famine “a man-made disaster and moral indictment,” urging a ceasefire and unhindered aid. Rights groups warn the deliberate deprivation may constitute a war crime.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 Bardella emerges as Le Pen’s rival within National Rally ahead of 2027 election: France’s far-right National Rally faces mounting tension over who will lead the party into the 2027 presidential race: Marine Le Pen or her 29-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella. Once considered a loyal subordinate, Bardella is gaining momentum in the polls while broadening the party’s appeal to conservative business elites wary of Le Pen’s populist protectionism. Le Pen, long the party’s dominant figure, is weakened by a fraud conviction that could bar her candidacy, while Bardella’s polished image and economic liberalism are attracting voters from the centre-right. His overtures mirror Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s strategy of mainstreaming the hard right, in contrast to Le Pen’s traditional working-class base. Polls suggest Bardella is now as credible as Le Pen, leaving the party balancing loyalty to its veteran leader against the electoral arithmetic of victory.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia accuses Kyiv of drone strikes on Kursk nuclear plant: Moscow accused Kyiv of launching nearly 100 drones across Russia, including one that struck the Kursk nuclear power plant, sparking a fire and forcing a reactor to halve output. Russian officials said the blaze was quickly contained, with no casualties or radiation leaks reported. The IAEA confirmed radiation levels remained normal. The attacks coincided with Ukraine’s independence day, underscoring its increasing reliance on drones to hit Russia’s energy and military infrastructure. Fires were reported at a fuel terminal in Ust-Luga, while drones were intercepted as far as St Petersburg. Ukraine, meanwhile, said it downed 48 of 72 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia, but admitted to civilian losses from strikes in Dnipropetrovsk. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the anniversary vowing Ukraine would “never lose,” while stressing that foreign-backed security guarantees remain vital as the war grinds on.

4️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 Baghdad struggles to rein in PMF as militias test state authority: Iraq’s fragile stability was jolted in July when Kata’ib Hizbollah fighters stormed the Ministry of Agriculture in Baghdad, killing three and wounding nine in an attempt to block the appointment of a new director. The raid underscored the challenge Baghdad faces in asserting control over the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a constellation of militias born from the 2014 fight against ISIS but now deeply fractured between Iran-aligned groups, nationalist units, and minority-based brigades. Parliament is considering legislation to formalise the PMF as a state entity with its own ranks and academy, a move critics fear will entrench Tehran’s influence. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has disciplined commanders involved in the raid, but meaningful reform hinges on balancing Iran’s waning sway, Gulf and Turkish engagement, and sustained Western backing.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 🇲🇽 Trump deploys US warships against Latin American cartels: Earlier this month, President Donald Trump authorised US military action against Latin American criminal groups, a plan now underway with three guided-missile destroyers deployed off Venezuela to interdict drug shipments. The move follows Trump’s January executive order designating major cartels and gangs—including six Mexican cartels, MS-13, Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, and later Haiti-based groups—as foreign terrorist organisations. Washington frames the fentanyl crisis as a border threat, yet decades of militarised strategies have failed to curb supply, often fuelling violence. Mexico’s cartels remain decentralised, resilient networks that adapt quickly, while groups like Venezuela’s so-called Cartel of the Suns barely exist as structured entities. Military action risks repeating past failures: intensifying bloodshed, bolstering anti-US sentiment, and offering only symbolic victories against an entrenched, evolving trade.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 TRUMP, PUTIN, AND THE ELUSIVE PATH TO PEACE IN UKRAINE

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, he promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine “in a single day.” Eight months later, reality has proven far more complex. Trump has oscillated between begrudging support for Kyiv and overtures to Moscow, sending previously pledged aid while withholding new commitments. His overriding goal remains a negotiated settlement he can claim as a diplomatic victory–and a foundation for warmer U.S.-Russia relations. Yet his Anchorage summit with Vladimir Putin in August highlighted the perils of improvisational diplomacy. Putin proposed a freeze in fighting in exchange for Ukraine ceding all remaining territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, while Trump floated vague “Article 5-style” guarantees for Kyiv with little clarity or consensus. 

This is not the first time such proposals have surfaced. In March 2022, negotiations in Istanbul came close to outlining a potential settlement. Ukraine would have renounced NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from major powers, while Russia would have withdrawn to its pre-invasion positions. That deal collapsed as evidence of Russian atrocities emerged in Bucha and elsewhere, hardening Ukrainian resolve and eroding trust. Compared with those terms, Putin’s Anchorage proposal represents an escalation in demands, asking Kyiv not only to abandon NATO aspirations but also to surrender swathes of sovereign territory.

Russia’s Calculus, Washington’s Role and Limitations

On the battlefield, Russia’s grinding summer offensive continues to expand its control, yet Ukraine shows no signs of capitulation. For Kyiv, the choice remains between enduring attrition or accepting subjugation. Putin, meanwhile, calculates he can win more by pressing on, but risks locking Russia into a future of sanctions and heightened European militarisation. A deal acceptable to Kyiv and its backers could ease Moscow’s isolation, but only if the Kremlin can be persuaded that peace offers more than incremental gains from endless war.

The U.S. remains the indispensable mediator, but Trump’s ad hoc, personality-driven approach undermines prospects for durable peace. Overreliance on a small circle of loyal envoys has produced confusion and contradictory signals. Without empowered diplomats and technical experts, negotiations risk becoming performative rather than productive. Trump’s instinct for grand summits must be paired with sustained, detailed engagement if diplomacy is to yield more than photo opportunities.

Security Guarantees and a Plausible Settlement

Any agreement will hinge on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. While Trump has hinted at NATO-style protections, U.S. reluctance to commit troops makes such assurances questionable. Europe has stepped in more forcefully: London and Paris have floated peacekeeping contingents, and EU capitals will bear the long-term burden of financing Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.

A conceivable settlement would entail Ukraine de facto relinquishing some territory, abandoning near-term NATO ambitions, and retaining a lean but capable army underwritten by Western guarantees. In return, Russia would secure limited sanctions relief and a measure of European trade, while both sides would need monitoring mechanisms along the line of contact. Yet the core challenge is unchanged: convincing Moscow and Kyiv alike that peace offers more than continued war. As International Crisis Group’s Oleg Ignatov and Lucian Kim indicate, U.S. diplomacy remains the most credible path to that outcome, but only if it grows more patient, structured, and inclusive.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli intelligence data shows at least 83% of its Gaza victims were civilians: An internal Israeli military database reveals that more than 83% of Palestinians killed in Gaza were civilians, contradicting official claims that Israel maintained a 1:1 or 2:1 ratio of militants to civilians. The classified registry, managed by military intelligence, records around 8,900 Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives confirmed or presumed dead by May 2025. When compared with Gaza’s health ministry figures of 53,000 deaths at that time, the ratio shows civilians make up the vast majority of fatalities. Experts say such proportions are almost unprecedented outside of genocides in Rwanda and Srebrenica. While Israel insists it provides adequate aid and disputes the findings, aid groups and international bodies argue the scale of civilian deaths reflects indiscriminate bombardment and possible war crimes.

2️⃣ 🇳🇱 🇮🇱 Dutch foreign minister resigns after coalition split over sanctions on Israel: Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned late Friday after the caretaker cabinet deadlocked over whether to impose sanctions on Israel, further destabilising the fragile government. Veldkamp’s New Social Contract (NSC) party also quit the coalition, accusing partners—the centre-right VVD and populist BBB—of refusing to respond to the “alarming situation” in Gaza. The dispute followed a joint declaration signed by the Netherlands and 20 other states condemning Israel’s plan for 3,400 new settlement homes in the occupied West Bank. The Netherlands had already barred far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from entering in July. Veldkamp, a former ambassador to Israel, said he was “insufficiently able to take meaningful additional measures.” His resignation came as UN experts warned of a “man-made famine” in Gaza, where deaths are rising rapidly. The crisis coincides with political turmoil ahead of a 29 October snap election, triggered when Geert Wilders’ PVV quit the coalition in June.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Sanaa amid escalating regional confrontation: Israeli warplanes struck multiple sites in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, killing at least two people and injuring 35, according to local officials. Local media reported that an oil company facility and a municipal building were hit—which would constitute a war crime—while Israeli forces claimed they targeted military sites near the presidential palace, fuel storage depots, and two power stations. The raids followed a Houthi missile launch late Friday that Israel said disintegrated mid-air. The Iran-allied group has stepped up attacks on Israel with missiles and drones since October 2023, framing its campaign as solidarity with Gaza. While most strikes have been intercepted, Israel has responded with repeated air raids on Houthi infrastructure, including power facilities in Sanaa. The Houthis have also extended their campaign to the Red Sea, targeting commercial vessels linked to Israel, the US, and Britain. Although the group reached a temporary ceasefire with Washington in May, its leaders insist they will continue to strike Israeli-linked shipping.

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you again:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Weekly Updates?

Want weekly updates as well as daily?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Weekly here ⤵️

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics