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UN resolution on Western Sahara entrenches diplomatic deadlock, the US strikes another two Venezuelan vessels in international waters, and Pakistan clashes with TTP militants amid the collapse of peace talks with Afghanistan.

Today’s lead story turns to West Africa, where we examine President Trump’s claims of an ongoing genocide against Christians in Nigeria.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

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Major Story

🇳🇬 🇺🇸 WASHINGTON AND ABUJA CLASH OVER CLAIMS OF ‘CHRISTIAN GENOCIDE’

Relations between the United States and Nigeria have deteriorated sharply following accusations by President Donald Trump and his domestic allies that Abuja is complicit in the mass killing of Christians. Trump has threatened military intervention, warning that Washington would “go in guns blazing” if Nigeria failed to protect its Christian population. Nigeria’s government has dismissed the allegations as inflammatory and insisted that its sovereignty be respected. The rift marks the lowest point in bilateral relations since the 1970s, when the two nations clashed over Washington's support for apartheid-era South Africa.

Misreading Nigeria’s Complex Violence

While violence against civilians has intensified since President Bola Tinubu took office, claims that Nigerian Christians face state-backed persecution distort a far more complex reality. By way of background, Nigeria’s security threats are multi-faceted and overlapping, primarily stemming from banditry, resource competition, communal land disputes and separatist agitation. They also tend to be enmeshed in history, entangled in poverty and exacerbated by political contestation.

Narratives that focus solely on the killing of Christians tend to ignore the reality that sectarianism is often a secondary factor in Nigeria’s internal violence, rather than its main driver. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) indicate that incidents explicitly targeting Christians account for only around five per cent of civilian attacks.

In the Middle Belt, where much of the violence occurs, conflicts are often driven by competition for land and resources between predominantly Christian farming communities and mostly Muslim Fulani herders. Local leaders, including Benue’s paramount ruler and Plateau’s governor, describe the violence as a campaign of territorial seizure rather than religious genocide. Meanwhile, in the predominantly Christian southeast, criminal gangs — not Islamist militants — are behind most killings and kidnappings.

Risks of U.S. Miscalculation

By framing Nigeria’s turmoil in sectarian terms, Washington risks deepening religious polarisation and undermining fragile interfaith coexistence. Christians and Muslims coexist across most regions, and Nigeria’s constitution guarantees religious pluralism, which is a principle reflected even in the presidency: Tinubu, a Muslim, is married to a Christian pastor.

A U.S. intervention would do little to protect Nigerian civilians and would inflame tensions. Islamist militants and local militias operate in diffuse, rural areas where airstrikes would likely cause high civilian casualties. Moreover, further cuts to aid — already reduced after Trump shuttered USAID — would devastate humanitarian and development programs, worsening suffering across communities.

The Danger of Simplistic Narratives

Trump’s rhetoric mirrors past U.S. misadventures built on moral panic and misreading of local dynamics. Nigeria’s crises demand nuanced engagement, writes International Crisis Group, not military threats or partisan crusades. Reducing its complex conflicts to a false narrative of Christian persecution risks fanning extremism, eroding trust, and destabilising one of West Africa and the Sahel’s most important states.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇪🇭 🇲🇦 UN resolution on Western Sahara reinforces stalemate: The UN Security Council’s October 31 resolution on Western Sahara marks a setback, critics say, as it subtly aligns with Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty while marginalising the Polisario Front’s demand for a referendum on independence. Despite reaffirming the principle of self-determination, the text reframes Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan as “a most feasible solution,” revealing U.S. influence and sparking divisions among Council members.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 🇺🇳 US strikes two Venezuelan vessels in international waters: The United States has intensified its campaign of lethal maritime strikes, targeting what it claims are drug-smuggling vessels in international waters. Critics — including UN human rights chief Volker Türk — have condemned the strikes as extrajudicial killings lacking legal justification. Rights groups and legal experts argue that, rather than monitoring or interdicting the vessels within territorial waters, the U.S. has opted for summary executions on the high seas.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan kills 20 TTP militants as peace talks with Afghanistan collapse: Pakistan’s military said it killed 20 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters in operations across North Waziristan and Dara Adam Khel amid mounting cross-border tensions with Afghanistan. The raids came soon after a suicide attack on a cadet college in South Waziristan, which troops repelled, killing several assailants the army alleged were backed by India and operating from Afghan territory.

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