Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, EU capitals urge Brussels to roll out a new defence-financing scheme; Yemen’s parliament denounces the STC’s territorial advance; and Bulgaria’s prime minister steps down after mass protests. 

Our lead story returns to Myanmar, where the junta is preparing to stage hollow elections later this month.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Zelenskyy says US is urging Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk to form ‘economic zone’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Washington has floated a plan that would see Ukrainian forces pull back from parts of Donetsk to create a so-called “economic free zone,” a proposal Kyiv rejects without a nationwide vote. He confirmed that Ukraine has delivered a counter-proposal to the US, insisting that any territorial concessions be subject to public approval and questioning why Russia should not be required to withdraw an equal distance. 

2️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai PM dissolves parliament amid coalition rift and escalating border violence: Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul moved to dissolve parliament, saying he was “returning power to the people” after a breakdown with the opposition People’s Party made governing untenable. Meanwhile, Thailand faces escalating border clashes with Cambodia, causing the displacement of nearly a million people.

3️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Honduras lawmakers challenge election results: A congressional panel in Honduras warned it may refuse to certify the November 30 presidential election, alleging an “electoral coup” and improper involvement by U.S. President Donald Trump as the vote count dragged into an eleventh day. Inconsistencies in 15% of tally sheets and fraud claims from both the LIBRE party and Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla have fuelled mass protests and deepened uncertainty.

4️⃣ 🇧🇴 Bolivian ex-president Arce detained in corruption probe: Less than a month after leaving office, former Bolivian President Luis Arce was arrested in La Paz on allegations of financial misconduct and breach of duty, according to officials in President Rodrigo Paz’s new administration. His detention comes shortly after Paz, a centrist Christian Democrat, ended nearly 20 years of MAS dominance with his victory in the October runoff election.

5️⃣ 🇧🇬 Bulgaria’s PM resigns amid mass protests: Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov stepped down after weeks of nationwide protests accusing his government of corruption and mishandling economic policy, resigning just before a no-confidence vote and ahead of the country’s planned eurozone entry. The demonstrations, drawing more than 100,000 people in Sofia alone, reflected deep public anger over tax and spending proposals seen as masking entrenched graft. 

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇺🇳 MYANMAR’S JUNTA PREPARES HOLLOW ELECTIONS

Myanmar’s military regime plans to stage national elections later this month—the first since the 2021 coup that toppled the re-elected National League for Democracy (NLD) and ignited a nationwide armed uprising. The generals claim the polls will restore constitutional order, yet sweeping repression, harsh new electoral rules, the exclusion of major parties, and widespread cancellations in conflict zones leave the process devoid of credibility. The NLD’s leadership remains imprisoned, the party has been dissolved for refusing to register, and the military-backed USDP is positioned to dominate uncontested seats.

Conflict, coercion, and fragmented participation

The elections will unfold amid intense fighting between the junta, post-coup resistance forces, and longstanding ethnic armed groups, most of whom reject the polls as illegitimate. Violence linked to the electoral process is already rising, with arrests, intimidation, and targeted attacks on candidates and party offices. Millions of voters will be disenfranchised due to security conditions, and polling stations, often poorly protected schools staffed by coerced civil servants, risk becoming soft targets.

Why the junta insists on voting

Rather than seeking a genuine mandate, the military views the polls as a constitutional formality that allows a transition from emergency rule back to a façade of civilian governance under the 2008 charter. The regime hopes that holding elections, however hollow, will signal stability to foreign governments and encourage renewed engagement, especially as China pushes for predictable political management in Naypyitaw.

Implications for Myanmar and abroad

A USDP landslide will merely cement military rule under a thin civilian veneer and further entrench Myanmar’s fragmentation. While new political actors may emerge within the junta’s orbit, none are likely to advance meaningful dialogue or resolve long-standing ethnic and political grievances. External actors, Crisis Group writes, should avoid conferring legitimacy on the process, withholding recognition and observer missions while prioritising humanitarian assistance for the more than 20 million people now in need.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 Yemen parliament condemns STC advance: Yemen’s parliament voiced “deep regret” over the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s seizure of Hadramout and al-Mahra, warning that the unilateral move violates the political framework binding the Presidential Leadership Council and risks empowering the Houthis. The legislature urged Saudi Arabia and the UAE to back the UN-recognised government and reverse any actions taken outside the agreed consensus, as the STC tightens control over the south and threatens to reignite a long-stalled civil war. 

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 EU capitals push Brussels to launch new defence scheme: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said member states are already urging Brussels to create a second SAFE defence-financing instrument, even though the first programme has yet to disburse funds. She described the €150 billion loans-for-weapons scheme as the EU’s most oversubscribed initiative, underscoring how rapidly the bloc’s defence posture has shifted in the past year. 

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