Hello and welcome back. 

Trump arrives in South Korea for high-stakes trade and defence talks, as Rio is gripped with clashes between security forces and alleged drug traffickers. 

In Istanbul, Afghanistan–Pakistan ceasefire negotiations collapse without progress, while our lead story examines Turkey’s expanding military-industrial complex and Europe’s deepening dependence on its defence industry.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇦🇫 🇵🇰 Afghanistan–Pakistan Istanbul talks reach impasse: Peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Istanbul ended without progress, dashing hopes of a lasting truce after some of the deadliest border fighting since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Despite a recent ceasefire, hostilities have continued, with clashes over the weekend killing at least five Pakistani soldiers and 25 militants.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇹🇹 Venezuela declares Trinidad and Tobago prime minister persona non grata: Venezuela’s National Assembly voted to declare Trinidad and Tobago prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar persona non grata and bar her entry, while also suspending a major gas deal and both sides weigh further retaliatory measures, including mass deportations and other restrictions.The decision follows Persad-Bissessar’s public support for US strikes on alleged drug boats — attacks that have killed dozens and drawn legal criticism as extrajudicial killings.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli politicians urge Gaza offensive after body mix-up and renewed ceasefire violations: Israeli politicians have demanded a return to full-scale war on Gaza after forensic tests revealed that a body returned by Hamas was not that of a captive, as claimed. The incident came amid multiple Israeli ceasefire violations in the past 24 hours, which killed over 30 Palestinians.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇺🇳 Zelensky urges Trump to pressure Xi over Russia’s war funding: The Ukrainian President has called on Donald Trump to persuade Xi Jinping to scale back China’s support for Russia, urging a reduction in purchases of Russian oil and gas that Kyiv and Washington say bankroll Moscow’s war in Ukraine. In other news, a new UN inquiry accused Russia of crimes against humanity for forcibly displacing civilians and conducting relentless drone attacks. 

5️⃣ 🇩🇯 Djibouti removes presidential age limit, paving way for Guelleh’s sixth term: Djibouti’s parliament has scrapped the constitutional age cap of 75 for presidential candidates, allowing 77-year-old Ismail Omar Guelleh to seek a sixth term in the 2026 election. Critics say the change cements Guelleh’s bid for lifelong rule, while supporters argue it ensures continuity in a strategically vital nation hosting multiple foreign military bases at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandab Strait.

Major Story

🇹🇷 🇪🇺 TURKEY’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY POSITIONS ITSELF AS EUROPE’S STRATEGIC PARTNER

After a three-year hiatus, EU and Turkish officials resumed defence talks last June, seeking to redefine Ankara’s role in Europe’s largest military buildup since the Cold War. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuelling rearmament and the United States’ reliability in question, European governments are urgently diversifying their defence partnerships. Turkey—home to NATO’s second-largest army and a rapidly advancing defence sector—has emerged as a pivotal potential partner. Analysts note that its NATO-standard hardware and technological innovation make it uniquely positioned to bolster Europe’s capabilities.

Turkey’s Expanding Defence Prowess

Over the past decade, Turkey has transformed its arms industry into a global force, exporting drones, smart munitions, and armoured vehicles to dozens of countries. Defence exports have tripled in recent years, with Ankara targeting $11 billion by 2028. Turkish drones, led by Baykar and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), have dominated global UAV transfers, while firms like Aselsan and Otokar lead in air defence and armoured vehicles. Analysts describe Turkey’s progress—particularly in electronic warfare and autonomous systems—as “remarkable,” positioning it at the forefront of emerging military technologies.

Deepening European Integration

With European industry struggling to meet surging demand, Turkey’s manufacturing capacity offers a lifeline. EU white papers identify critical shortfalls in areas where Turkish companies already excel, such as drones, air defence, and smart munitions. Eastern and Balkan states, including Poland, Romania, and Croatia, have already turned to Turkish suppliers, while joint ventures in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Germany hint at growing Western European interest. Ankara’s defence agency, SSB, has urged Brussels to relax restrictions under the EU’s €150 billion SAFE rearmament fund, arguing that Turkish collaboration would strengthen Europe’s overall security posture.

Political Barriers and Strategic Calculus

Political headwinds persist. Greece and Cyprus oppose closer cooperation due to regional disputes, while France resists competition from Turkish firms. Germany, though pragmatic, faces domestic scepticism. Concerns over Ankara’s democratic backsliding further complicate EU acceptance. Still, experts argue that integrating Turkey into Europe’s defence ecosystem could yield long-term diplomatic dividends, creating mutual dependencies that stabilise political relations. As one analyst noted, deeper defence cooperation “would act as a buffer in times of crisis—and a catalyst for improved relations in calmer times.”

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Rio police raid leaves at least 64 dead in city’s ‘deadliest day’: At least 64 people were killed after more than 2,500 police officers stormed the Alemão and Penha favelas in Rio de Janeiro, in what officials called the city’s largest and deadliest security operation. Rights groups denounced the raid as a “state-sanctioned massacre,” accusing authorities of waging war on impoverished communities rather than tackling the root causes of crime.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 Trump arrives in South Korea for trade and defence talks: President Donald Trump arrived in South Korea to meet President Lee Jae Myung amid stalled talks over a $350 billion trade deal and renewed strains over US tariffs and immigration raids. Seoul has resisted Washington’s demand for direct investment, warning it could destabilise its economy, while Trump has pushed allies to pay more for defence as North Korea test-fired another nuclear-capable missile.

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