Hello and welcome back.

Headlines from Africa dominate today’s update: Turkey-backed Islamist factions escalate Sudan’s widening conflict; uncertainty clouds the renewal of Somalia’s peacekeeping mission; and Islamic State-linked attacks in northern Mozambique displace thousands.

Our main story examines how intensifying U.S.–China rivalry is reshaping the Indo-Pacific security order.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇺🇳 France, UK, and Canada threaten sanctions over Israel’s Gaza offensive and aid blockade: France, the UK, and Canada have issued a warning to Israel, threatening sanctions if it does not end its intensified military campaign in Gaza and lift restrictions on humanitarian aid. The statement followed Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s admission that the military is “destroying everything left” in the Strip and the IDF’s declaration of a full city as a combat zone. Smotrich also conceded that Israel are looking to allow in the bare minimum of trucks in order to meet diplomatic prerequisites, while still maintaining the slaughter. Smotrich also admitted that Israel aims to permit only the bare minimum number of aid trucks necessary to satisfy diplomatic conditions, while continuing its military campaign. The UN confirmed that only nine aid trucks were allowed into Gaza after Israel pledged to ease the blockade—less than 2% of pre-war daily deliveries—which the three allied nations called “wholly inadequate” and potentially unlawful.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Civilians bear brunt of air and ground assaults, as RSF pushes to establish parallel government: Sudan’s civil war has entered a dangerous new phase, with the SAF and RSF waging increasingly destructive battles not just for territory, but for legitimacy. Fierce fighting has intensified in Nyala and Port Sudan, where airstrikes and drone attacks have crippled infrastructure and terrified civilians. The RSF, bolstered by reports of UAE support, is moving to establish a parallel administration in Darfur, while SAF accuses foreign actors of backing fragmentation. Civilian testimonies describe abuses, fear, and humanitarian collapse amid military escalations. As both factions extend their reach across Darfur, Kordofan, and beyond, Sudan is caught between two hardened rival camps pursuing power with little regard for human cost. A decisive battle looms in El Fasher—potentially the tipping point in a war that shows no signs of abating.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 🇯🇴 Trump foreign policy officials allegedly considered assassinating Syrian president al-Sharaa: U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen disclosed that Jordan’s King Abdullah II privately urged Washington not to assassinate Syria’s new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, warning it could plunge the country back into full-scale civil war. The revelation came as Shaheen criticised reported conversations within the Trump administration about targeting Sharaa, once a designated terrorist and HTS commander who overthrew the Assad regime in 2024. The remarks follow President Trump’s unexpected decision to lift all U.S. sanctions on Syria and meet Sharaa in Riyadh, a move praised regionally but which caught many in his administration and Israel off guard. Trump, influenced by Turkish and Saudi lobbying, has framed Sharaa as a reformist capable of stabilising Syria, engaging with Israel, and expelling foreign fighters—yet concerns persist over his Islamist past and the opaque nature of Washington’s Syria pivot.

4️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇳 Funding uncertainties surround renewal of Somalia peacekeeping mission: The UN Security Council missed its 15 May deadline to authorise funding for the African Union’s Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), casting doubt on the mission’s future. Although Resolution 2719 theoretically allows up to 75% of AU mission costs to be covered by the UN, U.S. opposition and Council inaction blocked progress. With AUSSOM’s $166 million budget largely unfunded, traditional backers like the EU are reluctant to fill the gap, and emerging donors have yet to step in. While a pledging conference may offer temporary relief, the lack of a long-term solution risks destabilising Somalia before it is ready, potentially undoing years of international peacebuilding efforts.

5️⃣ 🇪🇹 Tigray’s crisis is political, not military: The fragmented Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) faces deep internal rifts, with the Getachew faction rejecting the legitimacy of the 14th Congress, citing regional exclusion and coercive tactics. Debretsion Gebremichael’s rival camp is accused of orchestrating a militarised power grab, sidelining civilian oversight and obstructing disarmament obligations under the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Once a symbol of resistance, the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) have splintered into rival units lacking constitutional mandate. Reformists like Getachew and Tsadkan promote a legitimate congress, security sector reform, AU-supervised DDR, and diaspora-led reconstruction—but risk deeper fractures through perceived collaboration with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, co-architect of the war on Tigray. The region’s future rests on breaking oligarchic dominance, restoring democratic norms, and forging inclusive, accountable institutions guided by the popular will.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 U.S.—CHINA COMPETITION RESHAPES INDO-PACIFIC SECURITY ORDER

The Indo-Pacific is undergoing a seismic shift as the U.S. and China expand their military capabilities and deepen their strategic rivalry. China’s rapid military modernisation, particularly its ability to challenge U.S. assets near its periphery, has raised the stakes. The U.S., under Presidents Trump and Biden, has responded by reinforcing its regional posture, dispersing forces and upgrading alliances. Still, inconsistent U.S. messaging, particularly under Trump’s “America First” approach, has sown doubt among allies, fuelling regional militarisation.

Diverging Norms and Waning Trust

China’s use of coercive tactics in sovereignty disputes, often flouting international law, contrasts sharply with its claims of peaceful rise. Meanwhile, Washington’s own unpredictability—underscored by erratic diplomacy, sweeping tariffs, and international normative double standards—has shaken confidence in U.S. commitments. Allies worry that U.S. rhetoric now prioritises great-power dominance over international norms, a shift that complicates regional security planning.

Pathways to Stability and Risk Management

To avoid an arms race or unintended conflict, the U.S. and China must reinvigorate strategic communication, including military-to-military channels and risk-reduction dialogues. Recent trade talks offer a narrow opening for diplomacy. A future framework might involve greater transparency in nuclear and cyber capabilities and careful delineation of red lines—particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan—balancing clarity and strategic ambiguity.

Shared Security Requires Inclusive Regional Roles

Long-term stability will also depend on empowering regional actors. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, along with key partners such as Taiwan, will demand greater say in shaping the security architecture. As the U.S. balances deterrence and diplomacy, and China seeks primacy, the Indo-Pacific’s future will hinge not just on major-power rivalry, but on how smaller powers navigate and influence this evolving order.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇩 Turkey-backed Islamists fuel Sudan’s expanding war: Sudan’s civil war is intensifying as Islamist militias aligned with the army, notably the Al-Baraa bin Malik group, gain prominence. Analysts link these factions to the Muslim Brotherhood and accuse Turkey, Qatar, and Iran of funnelling weapons—especially Turkish drones—outside official channels. Evidence reveals Ankara’s Baykar company has supplied drones and munitions worth over $120 million to forces in Port Sudan. Meanwhile, Burhan tolerates these groups, hoping they counter the RSF while not threatening his regime—yet tensions remain. The disarray risks turning Sudan into a proxy battleground and dismantling hopes for civilian rule. As international actors weigh responses, Sudan teeters on the edge of deeper fragmentation and Islamist entrenchment.

2️⃣ 🇲🇿 Thousands displaced as Islamic State-linked militants launch attacks in northern Mozambique: Militant violence linked to Islamic State-Mozambique has erupted in Niassa Reserve, one of Africa’s largest protected areas, leaving at least 10 dead and forcing the suspension of conservation operations. Two brutal attacks in late April—including beheadings and the killing of anti-poaching scouts—have displaced thousands. With nine conservation camps abandoned and militants still active, urgent military intervention is needed to restore safety. Without peace, conservationists say, livelihoods will vanish and one of Africa’s last great wildernesses may be lost.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇩🇰 🇬🇱 China ‘fully’ respects Denmark’s sovereignty on Greenland, says foreign minister: China expressed strong backing for Denmark on Monday, affirming its “full respect” for Danish sovereignty over Greenland, shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated interest in acquiring the territory. During talks in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Danish counterpart Lars Lokke Rasmussen that China expects Denmark to reciprocate support on Chinese territorial issues. Marking 75 years of bilateral relations, Wang called for greater political trust, deeper cooperation on green development, and expanded high-level dialogue. Meanwhile, Trump told Congress that acquiring Greenland remains a strategic goal for U.S. and global security, declaring, “we’re going to get it one way or the other.”

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics